Flawed Western System Gives Chinese Banks Room to Expand

IN 2008, the U.S. and European banking system as a whole became insolvent, requiring US $1.7 trillion in taxpayer bailouts. Even this     

THE DYNAMICS OF DELINQUENT PEERS AND DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR*

This analysis examines the dynamic reciprocal relationship between delinquent peer associations and delinquent behavior. It tests the hypothesis, derived from learning and interactional theories, that delinquent peers and delinquent behavior are reciprocally related—delinquent peer associations foster future delinquency, and delinquency increases the likelihood of associating with delinquent peers. It also tests the competing hypothesis, derived from control theories, that delinquent peers do not cause delinquency, but instead, the relationship is (1) spurious due to individual criminal propensity, (2) a result of the effects of delinquent behavior on future associations with delinquent peers, or (3) an artifact of problems of measuring delinquent peers. To test these propositions, we use data from the National Youth Survey and estimate a cross-lagged panel model that corrects for measurement error in indicators of delinquent peers and delinquent behavior. The model species a covariance structure model for ordinal measures. Parameters are estimated by (1) estimating a threshold model relating ordinal measures to continuous latent variables; (2) estimating a matrix of polychoric correlations relating observed variables, and (3) using an asymptotic distribution-free estimator to estimate structural parameters. The results suggest that delinquent peer associations and delinquent behavior are reciprocally related, but the effect of delinquency on peer associations is larger than that of peer associations on delinquency.     

Why China Will Grow Rich Before It Grows Old

正THE announcement of the relaxation of China’s one child policy created great discussion in China and internationally.But its significance was widely misunderstood.Contrary to myth,the increase in China’s labor supply plays little role in China’s rapid economic growth.In reality,96 percent of China’s economic growth comes from factors other than a rising labor supply.Therefore,there is no reason why China’s economy should slow significantly because China’s working age population stopped growing in 2012.The mistaken view,sometimes expressed,that China will grow old before it becomes rich is therefore the reverse of the reality:China will grow rich before it grows old.To demonstrate clearly why,first the facts will be stated and then their implications analysed.     

China＇s Changing Pattern of FDI

正INWARD investment into China continues to be the highest of any developing economy,at US$101 billion in 2013,according to UN fi gures,but its pattern is changing signifi cantly as the country develops,and this trend will inevitably deepen.In the first decades after the start of China’s economic reforms in 1978,foreign direct investment was primarily     

China＇s Changing Development Pattern

正DATA available on the world’s two largest economies,China and the U.S.,for 2013provide an opportunity to take stock of China’s immediate economic prospects and the more general challenges facing its economic development strategy.