Looking Back to Move Forward: Quantifying Policy Predictions in Political Decision Making

Policy makers constantly face uncertainty, which makes achieving their goals problematic. To overcome this uncertainty, they employ tools to drive down uncertainty and make probabilistic decisions. We provide a method for scholars to assess empirically how actors make probabilistic predictions. We focus on the interactions between the executive and judicial branches, analyzing the conditions under which justices force the United States to provide them with information. Our approach generates substantive knowledge about interbranch behavior as well as a methodological innovation available to scholars who study political decision making under conditions of limited information.     

Assessment of Stress and Resiliency in Emergency Dispatchers

Although they are technically the first responders on most critical incidents, emergency dispatchers have received a modicum of attention from researchers and clinicians. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate job-related stress, psychological distress, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), stress resiliency, and posttraumatic growth in this high-risk group. These areas were evaluated via an assessment battery administered to 90 emergency dispatchers working in a law enforcement agency. Results showed that dispatchers experienced an average amount of occupational stress, with 24% of the current sample reporting significant job stress. Between 13.34 and 15.56% reported symptoms consistent with a PTSD diagnosis, and 16.67% indicated sub-threshold PTSD symptomatology. The findings revealed that, overall, dispatchers experience occupational stress, psychological distress, and sub-threshold PTSD at similar or higher rates compared to police officers. Further, dispatchers reported posttraumatic growth at an average rate, also similar to that reported by police officers. Clinical implications of the results are discussed. Suggestions for directions that future research might take are offered.     

International Relations in the Eighteenth Century: Britain and Poland Compared

An analysis of the ways in which different composite monarchies conducted international relations in the eighteenth century reveals the interplay of structure and contingency in shaping change and the discussion of change. Hanover-Britain is compared with Saxony-Poland. Considering Britain as an example of a polity created and shaped by a dynastic personal union redresses teleological tendencies in the treatment of international relations and offers an important perspective.     

Health insurance coverage of the unemployed: COBRA and the potential effects of Kassebaum-Kennedy.

We use the April 1993 Current Population Survey to examine the health insurance coverage decisions of the unemployed and to simulate the potential effects of the new Kassebaum-Kennedy legislation. After controlling for demographic characteristics, COBRA eligibility raises the probability of health insurance coverage by 0.095, while eligibility for spouse employer insurance increases the likelihood of coverage by 0.318, and eligibility for both increases the likelihood of coverage by 0.341. In our simulations, we find that had Kassebaum-Kennedy been in effect in April 1993, 9.0 percent of the unemployed would be eligible to take up coverage, and the coverage rate of the unemployed would have been increased by 0.85 percent to 1.5 percent from 41.6 percent. Our estimates of the effect of Kassebaum-Kennedy on health insurance coverage are much lower than those reported by the Government Accounting Office prior to the passage of the legislation.