LOCATING THE VANGUARD IN RISING AND FALLING HOMICIDE RATES ACROSS U.S. CITIES*

This research examines trends in U.S. homicide rates at the city level during the so‐called homicide epidemic in the latter decades of the 20th century. Using spline regression techniques to locate structural breaks in city‐level time series, we model the true trends of homicide rates to identify those cities that exhibited a meaningful boom and bust cycle. We then use Tobit regressions for all cities at risk of experiencing a cycle to estimate unbiased effects of theoretically important predictors on the timing of the phase changes. Our findings reveal that larger cities were more likely to experience an epidemic‐like pattern, and that densely populated cities characterized by high levels of deprivation tended to exhibit the rise and fall in homicide rates earlier than other cities.     

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: The Family and Medical Leave Act as Retrenchment Policy

abstract This article discusses recent efforts by states to adopt paid family leave since the original passage of the Family and Medical Leave Act in 1993. In proposing their legislation, 21 of 26 states dropped the family component of the original law and, instead, reduced coverage to baby care or parental leave. I explore the potential policy implications of what appears to be a retrenchment of the FMLA, as it shifts from an emphasis on family (including care of elderly parents) to parental (baby care only). This discussion is particularly important in light of a growing aging population that will demand greater assistance from family caregivers who will most likely be in the workforce and in need of benefits such as family leave.     

Defending In Defence of Politics Today

What are the threats to politics fifty years after the publication of Bernard Crick's classic In Defence of Politics? The chief danger lies in the forces of globalisation and the eclipse of the national state as the locus of political life. It is the hope of many in both Europe and the US that we might replace the basic structure of the sovereign state with a variety of postnational forms of organisation such as the UN or the EU. What are the forces behind these developments? Are we entering a world beyond politics increasingly administered by international law courts and tribunals no longer responsible to their national electorates? The possibility cannot be ruled out, but such a world, I suggest, would no longer be a political world.     

A Bridge to Somewhere: Mapping State and Congressional Ideology on a Cross‐institutional Common Space

Researchers face two major problems when applying ideal point estimation techniques to state legislatures. First, longitudinal roll‐call data are scarce. Second, even when such data exist, scaling ideal points within a single state is an inadequate approach. No comparisons can be made between these estimates and those for other state legislatures or for Congress. Our project provides a solution. We exploit a new comparative dataset of state legislative roll calls to generate ideal points for legislators. Taking advantage of the fact that state legislators sometimes go on to serve in Congress, we create a common ideological scale. Using these bridge actors, we estimate state legislative ideal points in congressional common space for 11 states. We present our results and illustrate how these scores can be used to address important topics in state and legislative politics.     

TO KILL OR NOT TO KILL? LETHAL OUTCOMES IN INJURIOUS ATTACKS*

This research explores the utility of the notion of lethal intent for understanding the outcomes of injurious attacks. We suggest that assailants sometimes kill rather than merely injure victims to avoid either retaliation or criminal prosecution. We hypothesize that, for these tactical reasons, offenders will be more likely to kill when they have no accomplices, when their victims are male or black, and when the victim can identify them. These hypotheses are tested with a merged data set containing information on homicides and nonlethal victimizations involving robbery, rape, and pure assault. The results of multiple logistic regression analyses are largely consistent with theoretical expectations.     

HOMICIDE FOLLOWED BY SUICIDE: AN ANALYSIS OF CHICAGO DATA

Homicide followed by suicide has been a neglected area in criminological theory and research. The work that exists is marked by a series of methodological limitations, such as small samples and lack of systematic multivariate analysis. This study tests the thesis that the closer the ties between the offender and victim in a homicide, the greater the ensuing guilt and the greater the likelihood of suicide. Data on 16,245 homicides in Chicago are analyzed. A multivariate logistic regression analysis largely confirms the hypothesis. Controlling for sociodemographic variables, killing an ex-spouse/lover increased the risk of suicide the most, 12.68 times. The odds of suicide are increased 10.28 times for killing a child, 8.00 times for killing a spouse, 6.11 times for killing a girlfriend or boyfriend, and 1.88 times for killing a friend. The act of homicide-suicide is conceptualized as stemming from a frustrated intimate relationship and a blend of self- and other-blame in one's attribution style.     

THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF PERCEIVED CERTAINTY AND SEVERITY OF PUNISHMENT REVISITED*

This paper synthesizes and extends recent criticisms of cross-sectional and panel studies of perceptual deterrence and then uses those criticisms to design a better cross-sectional study. A series of scenarios involving the noncompliance of a hypothetical plumber were posed to a sample of predominantly middle-aged administrators. The respondents were asked to estimate the probability that the noncompliance would be detected and, if detected, the probability that it would result in criminal prosecution. Respondents were also asked to project their own behavior if in the plumber's position. The results contrast sharply with prior findings, especially of the panel studies. Not only do perceptions of detection risk play an important role in deterring tax noncompliance, but fear of criminal prosecution appears to be a powerful deterrent.     

FAMILY DEVIANCE AND DELINQUENCY IN CHINA*

This research explores the relationship between family deviance and delinquency using survey data from Tianjin, a large city in China. We hypothesize that, similar to findings in the West, family deviance will be positively related to delinquency in China. We also hypothesize that the nature of the causal process linking these two variables will differ in certain respects from the pattern observed in Western nations, reflecting the unusually strong emphasis placed on family relations in Chinese society. The results of the analysis are mixed. Consistent with expectations, family deviance is positively related to official delinquency status, exhibiting indirect effects via family controls, moral commitments, and deviant associations, and direct effects that are likely to reflect family group pressures. We also discovered appreciable effects of friends' deviance, which runs counter to our hypothesis that the influence of family variables will significantly diminish the importance of peer associations. In general, our analysis indicates the key role of the family in explaining delinquent behavior in China, and it illustrates the utility of cross-cultural research for assessing the generality of research findings and identifying new directions for criminological inquiry.