Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

The Wisdom of Which Crowd? On the Pathology of a Listening Government

This article considers the claims made by members of the current UK Coalition government to adopt a new style of listening, consultative politics based upon the so‐called wisdom of the crowd. It considers how these claims have—and could have—been acted upon, focusing upon two central policy proposals; the funding of higher education and the reform of the National Health Service.     

Cameron's Conservatism: Why God,Why Now?

In recent months David Cameron has emphasised both his personal religious faith and the ongoing importance of Christianity and religion in Britain. This article seeks to explain why Cameron has made increasing reference to religious themes, and examines the extent to which they have been reflected in the approach of the current Coalition government. It is argued that Cameron's references to religion have been indicative of still tentative attempts to reaffirm, and in respects redefine, the role of Christianity and faith in British public life in response to the pressures of greater secularisation, religious pluralism and vocal challenges to religious privilege.     

DETERRENCE EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT

Abstract The controversy of statistical evaluation of effectiveness of the present criminal justice system and of specific programs or changes implemented in the existing system has in part centered around the value of crime-incidence data. The relationships between victimization and UCR or police-blotter data pertinent to their use in evaluation are first described. An example is presented using an empirical-stochastic model developed solely from UCR data to illustrate an approach to evaluation of system effectiveness. Here an ad hoc procedure is displayed which quantifies variation in and/or shifts in crime patterns after an intervention in the system.     

What's New and Useful in Law Analysis Technology?*

Abstract
Decision-aiding software is probably the most important technological innovation from the perspective of lawyer decision-making, as contrasted to efficient office management. That kind of technological breakthrough can be helpful to lawyers in negotiating settlements favorable to their clients without expensive litigation. The technology makes use of benefit-cost analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis, spreadsheet software, and especially super-optimizing analysis whereby plaintiffs, defendants, and other parties can all come out ahead of their best initial expectations simultaneously. Decision-aiding software can also be helpful to lawyers in evaluating alternative precedents, statutes, regulations, and other legal policies to arrive at versions favorable to their clients without an expensive adoption campaign.     

Method, Morality and the Impossibility of Legal Positivism

Abstract. The dispute between Legal Positivists (eg, Hart) and Natural Lawyers (e.g., Finnis) concerns the existence or otherwise of a necessary (conceptual) connection between law and morality. Legal Positivists such as Hart deny this connection and assert the merely contingent relationship of law and morals. However, it can be demonstrated that implicit in the valid sociological method of concept formation of post-Austinian Positivists are interpretative or ideal-typical models of the practical rationality of the legal enterprise which are not, and cannot possibly be, value-neutral. With particular attention to the work of John Finnis and his incorporation of Weberian and Aristotelian methodological principles, this paper exposes, if not the truth of Natural Law Theory, the impossibility of Legal Positivism.