Allison through the (Ottawa) Looking Glass: bureaucratic politics and foreign policy in a parliamentary system

Abstract. The major proponents of the bureaucratic politics approach to the study of foreign policy making — Graham T. Allison and Morton H. Halperin — contend that the paradigm developed from the United States foreign policy making system can be applied in other national contexts. This article assesses this contention. Despite indications that both the context and structure of Canadian foreign policy making in the 1970s would suggest the applicability of the bureaucratic politics model in accounting for policy outcomes, the author notes that few students of Canada's external relations appear convinced of the paradigm's applicability or its utility in a parliamentary context. However, a brief assessment of seven aspects of the structure of foreign policy decisionmaking in Canada during the 1970s suggests that the bureaucratic politics approach is applicable in a parliamentary system. It is argued, nonetheless, that structural differences between the United States and parliamentary systems will have a substantial impact on both the tone of bureaucratic politics and the effects of bureaucratic politics on policy outcomes. Sommaire. Les principaux partisans de l'approche dite de la « politique bureaucratique », pour l'eAtude de l'élaboration de la politique étrangère — Graham T. Allison et Morton H. Halperin — soutiennent l'un et l'autre que le paradigme développéà partir du système américain peut s'appliquer à d'autres contextes nationaux. C'est la these qui est évaluée ici. L'auteur note que certaines indications nous laissent supposer que le contexte et la structure de la politique étrangère canadienne au cours des années 1970 pourraient se prêter à une application du modèle de la politique bureaucratique pour ce qui est de l'analyse des conséquences des politiques, mais que peu de spécialistes en relations internationales canadiennes sont convaincus de la validité du paradigme ou de son utilité dans un contexte parlementaire. Cependant une brève evaluation de sept aspects de la structure de prise de décision en matière de politique étrangère au Canada pendant les années 70, semble montrer que l'approche de la politique bureaucratique est applicable à un système parlementaire. L'auteur soutient cependant que les différences structurelles entre le système présidentiel américain et le système parlementaire peuvent exercer un impact important à la fois sur le ton des politiques développées suivant le modèle de la politique bureaucratique et sur les effets de ces politiques.     

Enforcement Intensity in Danish Drug Control, 1996–2017

Enforcement intensity towards drug law offences in Denmark has increased since 2004, making Denmark one of the few Western countries that is heading towards a more repressive drug control approach. The aim of this study is to examine patterns and correlates of drug enforcement intensity over time. Policy documents and criminal statistics on drug law offences, from 1996 to 2017, are analysed in the context of the rationality perspective and the theory of policy coherence. Time series analyses and bivariate tests of statistical significance are used to examine enforcement intensity over time, between seasons, and in the gender and ethnic composition of convictions. Three periods are identified, delineated by documents that set forth drug policy aims. From 1996 to 2003, a series of qualitative changes to the legal framework was introduced, followed by a quantitative increase in enforcement pressure from 2004 to 2010 with a focus on Copenhagen. From 2011 to 2017, other regions of the country also increased enforcement. The increased intensity in drug control followed a period of increasing cannabis prevalence rates. The increase in reported minor drug law offences correlated with increased seasonal variations and increased disparity in the gender and ethnicity of convicted individuals.

     

Critical incidents,alcohol and trauma problems,and service utilization among police officers from five countries

This study examines the relationship between critical incidents, alcohol problems, trauma symptoms, and service utilization across five countries. A sample of 1286 police officers (79% male; 21% female) from five countries (US = 838, Canada = 231, UK = 102, Australia = 58, and New Zealand = 57) completed the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the PTSD Checklist – Civilian PCL-C, as well as questions regarding service availability and utilization in an on-line survey. ANOVA and chi-square tests indicate significant country differences on all variables except social stressors. Multivariate analysis of critical incidents, AUDIT, PTSD, and service utilization found negative coping and country of origin mattered. The reasons officers provided for why they felt they could not use available services (i.e., confidentiality, stigma, distrust of department, and ineffective/inadequate) also varied by country, which has important policy implications.     

A note on burdens of proof in civil litigation

It has been widely believed that who bears the burden of proof significantly affects the incentives of the legal parties. In particular, Hay and Spier (J Legal Stud 26:413–431, 1997) argues that if legal parties have a commonly accessible body of evidence (perfectly correlated pieces of evidence), the party who bears the burden of proof will present the evidence if and only if the evidence supports his position, while the other party (without the burden) will refrain from presenting it regardless of whether the evidence supports his position. In this paper, I claim that the result will be dramatically changed if the pieces of evidence that each party possesses are not perfectly correlated. I show that each party will present the evidence that supports his position whenever available, regardless of the burden of proof assignment. This implies that allocating the burden of proof does not matter in terms of information elicitation.     

Case rethinking: a protocol for reviewing criminal investigations

Mistakes in decision-making have been identified as the most common type of error in police investigations. Consequently, wrongful convictions and other types of criminal investigative failure may require a complete case ‘rethinking,’ particularly when new evidence disrupts the existing theory. A rush to judgment resulting in a premature shift from an evidence-based to a suspect-based investigation can produce a number of problematic thinking errors. Faulty assumptions, tunnel vision, groupthink, and other cognitive biases and organizational traps hinder evidentiary interpretation and evaluation. This article outlines a protocol for reviewing evidence and rethinking a wrongful conviction or unsolved crime when the existing investigative theory appears to be incorrect. The protocol involves four stages: (1) evidence; (2) interpretation; (3) patterns; and (4) analysis.     

Planning Ahead? An Exploratory Study of South Korean Investigators’ Beliefs About Their Planning for Investigative Interviews of Suspects

Preparation and planning has been argued to be vitally important as to how effectively investigators undertake their interviews with suspects. Yet, it has also been found in previous research that investigators admit that they plan only occasionally, often attributing insufficient time as a reason for not undertaking the task. Employing a novel research paradigm that utilised theoretical foundations concerning planning, the present study explored empirically 95 South Korean financial crime investigators’ views, using a self-administered questionnaire. With the use of second-generation statistical modelling, an understanding was developed of the relative relationships between various concepts (which had themselves emerged from an established theoretical framework of planning that had been further extended to accommodate the context of the present study). The study found that perceived time pressures actually showed a very low association with interview planning. Rather, investigators’ self-belief as to their own capability alongside workplace culture was each found to have stronger associations with investigators’ intentions to plan for their interviews. As such, we argue that there should be more focus on improving occupational culture relating to interview planning, while developing training programs that identify, evaluate, and enhance investigators’ planning skills. Implications for practice are therefore discussed.     

Examining the Relationship Between the Structural Characteristics of Place and Crime by Imputing Census Block Data in Street Segments: Is the Pain Worth the Gain?

Objective

The current study proposes unique methods for apportioning existing census data in blocks to street segments and examines the effects of structural characteristics of street segments on crime. Also, this study tests if the effects of structural characteristics of street segments are similar with or distinct from those of blocks.

Methods

This study compiled a unique dataset in which block-level structural characteristics are apportioned to street segments utilizing the 2010 U.S. Census data of the cities of Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Huntington Beach in Orange County, California. Negative binomial regression models predicting crime that include measures of social disorganization and criminal opportunities in street segments and blocks were estimated.

Results

The results show that whereas some of the coefficients tested at the street segment level are similar to those aggregated to blocks, a few were quite different (most notably, racial/ethnic heterogeneity). Additional analyses confirm that the imputation methods are generally valid compared to data actually collected at the street segment level.

Conclusions

The results from the street segment models suggest that the structural characteristics from social disorganization and criminal opportunities theories at street segments may operate as crucial settings for crime. Also the results indicate that structural characteristics have generally similar effects on crime in street segments and blocks, yet have some distinct effects at the street segment level that may not be observable when looking at the block level. Such differences underscore the necessity of serious consideration of the issues of level of aggregation and unit of analysis when examining the structural characteristics-crime nexus.

     

A Retrospective Study of the Investigation of Homicidal Childhood Asphyxial Deaths

As one of the leading causes of traumatic deaths in newborns, infants, and young children, there is no anatomic or microscopic feature that is pathognomonic for asphyxial deaths. Instead, pathologists rely on investigation information, including confessions and/or witness statements, and potential evidence at the scene. Twenty cases of homicidal newborn, infant, and young children asphyxial deaths were reviewed, which included death and police investigation reports and autopsy reports, as well as histology slides of lung sections. This series of homicidal asphyxial deaths highlight that, in a vast majority of such cases, the final cause and manner of death rulings are dependent on confession by the perpetrator. Furthermore, this series highlights the possible role of histology to help forensic pathologists better certify asphyxial deaths. Finally, this series emphasizes important investigation points and considerations at autopsy during the investigation of asphyxial deaths in newborns, infants, and young children.     

A comparison of curfew and noncurfew violators using a self-report delinquency survey

The present study examines one city’s experience with a juvenile curfew ordinance. It compares characteristics of youths detained by the police for curfew violation with teenagers who did not have such police contact. Selfreport data reveal curfew violators admit committing more minor and serious delinquency, as well as status offenses, than noncurfew violators. Curfew violators also disclose higher victimization levels. Implications deriving from these observations are discussed.     

Thyroid Cartilage Ossification and Multislice Computed Tomography Examination: A Useful Tool for Age Assessment?

Abstract: Many authors have studied the thyroid cartilage ossification process using radiographic features for age estimation of individuals. Their results were various: Sugiyama reported excellent correlation coefficients between ossification rates and civil age, unlike most other authors. We hypothesized that recent advances in imaging techniques would enable more precise evaluation of the ossification of the thyroid cartilage. We retrospectively analyzed the CT scans of 312 French patients using postprocessing software to examine the pattern of thyroid cartilage ossification, calculating the ossified volume of the cartilage on 3D reconstructions. Pearson’s correlation coefficients for volume were 0.73 for men and 0.75 for women (standard error 18.02 and 17.06), indicating considerable inter‐individual variability. Although a correlation between civil age and morphological changes was found, these methods based on thyroid cartilage ossification were not accurate enough for the assessment of individual age.