Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements

Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) have become the most prevalent form of international trade liberalization in recent decades, even though it remains far from clear what their effects on economies and their key units, firms, are. This paper evaluates the distributional consequences of trade liberalization within industries differentiating two distinct aspects in which trade liberalization could result in higher trade flows: the intensive vs. the extensive margin of trade. In particular, we analyze whether trade liberalization leads to increased trade flows because either firms trade more volume in products they have already traded before (intensive margin) or because they start to trade products they have not traded previously (extensive margin), or both. We test these arguments for the Dominican Republic–Central America–United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) and exporting firms based in Costa Rica for the time-period 2008–2014. The results of our study suggest that the effects of CAFTA-DR depend not only on whether we analyze the extensive versus the intensive margin of trade but also whether the product in question is homogenous or differentiated and whether the exporting firm under analysis is small or large. In particular, we find support for the theoretical expectation that firms exporting heterogeneous products, such as textiles, gain from trade agreements, such as CAFTA-DR, in that they can export more varieties of their products. Yet at the same time, they tend to lose at the intensive margin by a reduction in their trade volume while the opposite pattern occurs for firms exporting homogenous products.     

International Conflict,International Security Environment,and Military Coups

Why do some countries repeatedly experience military coups while others seem immune? Are countries more prone to military coups when faced with external threats? The answers to these questions still remain contested: While several scholars hold that countries facing external threats are more vulnerable to coups, others argue that such countries are actually more secure from coups. I argue that by failing to distinguish between immediate and acute threats, caused by wars and militarized conflicts, and chronic threats from a state’s international security environment, the existing literature ignores the possibility that these two types of external threats differently affect the likelihood of coups. I propose that wars and militarized conflicts, infrequent and often short lived, decrease coup propensity, while a threatening security environment increases coup risk. I find strong supporting evidence that the presence of chronic international threats increases the likelihood of coups while acute international conflicts lower that likelihood.     

To Tell the Truth: Ad Watch Coverage,Ad Tone,and the Accuracy of Political Advertising

This study examined the relationships among newspaper ad watch coverage, ad tone, and the accuracy of political advertising. A sample of political advertisements (N = 160) was drawn from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) database and other sources for eight U.S. Senate races. Two experts on each race evaluated the ads’ accuracy and their ideological portrayals of candidates, while trained coders analyzed other aspects of the ads. Ad watch coverage from these races (ad watch N = 109) also was content-analyzed. The number of ad watches overall in a race and the number that explicitly criticized ads were positively related with the level of accuracy of political ads and with a tendency to portray their favored candidates closer to their actual ideological position—but the overall number of ad watches also was positively related with a tendency for ads to portray opponents as more extreme than their positions warranted. Ad watches usually tend to scrutinize negative ads more, but ad watch coverage in this study was unrelated with ad tone and with the number of negative ads in a race. Positive ads were rated as more accurate but also more prone to exaggerate the supported candidates’ centrism compared to other ads. Normative and practical implications are discussed.

We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.

— Neil Newhouse, pollster for the Mitt Romney 2012 campaign     

Economic crises and augmenting financial bureaucratic power in South Korea

Despite negative public opinion, the role of the Korean government has expanded, while overcoming two rounds of global financial crises. The phenomenon of the re-swelling state is mainly attributed to the strengthening of the central bureaucracy, in particular the financial bureaucracy, rather than the whole central government or the state. The argument of the strengthening of the ‘state’ or the ‘government’ after economic crises might be subject to the error of generalization. Through the two rounds of economic crises, the financial bureaucracy succeeded in acquiring the authority of market supervision and industrial support. In consequence, the bureaucracy's institutional supremacy within the government grew less challenged. The central bureaucracy was no longer the loyal servant to the President. It has reinforced its institutional strength and autonomy vis-a-vis the President, the National Assembly, the Central Bank and civil society, under the pretext of building up the rational and autonomous market and democratic politics.     

The Polarization of American Environmental Policy: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Senate and House Votes, 1971–2013

The partisan polarization of environmental policy is an important development in American politics, but it remains unclear how much such polarization reflects voter preferences, as opposed to disagreements between partisan elites. We conduct a regression discontinuity analysis of all major environmental and energy votes in the Senate and the House, 1971–2013. In total, we have 368,974 individual roll call votes by senators and House Representatives. The causal effect of electing a Democrat instead of a Republican in close elections on pro‐environmental voting is large: when a Democrat wins, pro‐environmental voting increases by over 40 percentage points. Because of the quasi‐experimental research design, this difference cannot be attributed to the median voter's preferences. Next, we test hypotheses concerning possible explanations for the elite partisan conflict. The Democrat–Republican gap is the widest when fossil fuel interests make contributions exclusively to Republicans and when state‐level public opinion is polarized.     

Executive-legislative competition in agenda setting: an analysis of longitudinal changes in South Korea

The historical patterns of executive dominance in national policymaking have undergone a rapid transformation in South Korea. In the context of an emerging institutional rivalry between the executive and legislative branches in forming national policies, this study examines a causal nexus among the agenda power parity, jurisdictional complexity, and the scope and diversity of the national agenda space. A series of data analyses on various original measures of the key variables reveal that the two dimensions of the national agenda space have been reshaped via different causal processes. While the rise of the legislative power in agenda setting and the complexity of legislative jurisdictions tend to increase the scope of the national agenda space, democratic transition subsumes the influence of all other factors in increasing the diversity of the national agenda space.     

An ecological path model of use of violence among African American adolescents

This cross-sectional study used an ecological framework to understand the risk and protective factors associated with use of violence among African American adolescents ages 12–17 years (N = 2,328). Using data from the 2012 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the authors study identified different direct paths in predicting use of violence among African American adolescents. The authors then computed a multigroup analysis to determine whether significant gender differences exist in use of violence. Path analysis results suggest micro, meso, and macro factors significantly predicted violence use. The strongest predictor of use of violence among African American youth was parental conflicts. The multigroup analysis suggests that the pathways to use of violence significantly differ between African American boys and girls. Among African American boys, the strongest predictor of increased use of violence was parental conflicts; among African American girls, it was negative peer influence. Findings suggest that all 3 ecological domains and gender differences should be accounted for when developing prevention or intervention services that target use of violence among young African Americans.     

Decentralization,Government Capacity,and Environmental Policy Performance: A Cross-National Analysis

This study examines how decentralization and government capacity interactively shape national environmental policy performance. Despite the extensive literature on the policy consequences of decentralization, what remains deficient is a proper understanding of the role that government capacity may play in the process. This study advances an integrative proposition that decentralization can improve policy performance if the government is equipped with capable, efficient and trustworthy administrative apparatus. Findings from a cross-national analysis on national environmental policy performance lend strong support for the general argument by revealing that such positive effects of decentralization are significantly strengthened by the quality of government capacity.     

The Influence of Maternal Acculturation,Neighborhood Disadvantage,and Parenting on Chinese American Adolescents’ Conduct Problems: Testing the Segmented Assimilation Hypothesis

Associations among neighborhood disadvantage, maternal acculturation, parenting and conduct problems were investigated in a sample of 444 Chinese American adolescents. Adolescents (54% female, 46% male) ranged from 12 to 15 years of age (mean age = 13.0 years). Multilevel modeling was employed to test the hypothesis that the association between maternal acculturation and adolescents’ conduct problems could be explained by differences in mothers’ reliance on monitoring and harsh discipline. In addition, guided by segmented assimilation theory, measures of neighborhood disadvantage were expected not only to be related to differences in parenting, but also to moderate the effects of maternal acculturation on parenting. Results indicated that increased maternal acculturation was related to higher levels of maternal monitoring and lower levels of harsh discipline, which, in turn, were related to lower levels of adolescents’ conduct problems. Hierarchical linear modeling results revealed that neighborhood disadvantage was related to lower levels of maternal monitoring. However, neighborhood disadvantage did not moderate the link between maternal acculturation and parenting practices.