State-Local (Chicago) Relations in Illinois: The Harold Washington Era, 1984

Since Harold Washington became mayor of Chicago in 1983, relationsbetween the city and the state have changed significantly. Forone, the mayor is no longer the power-broker in state politics.The perception that Richard J. Daley controlled state governmentmay have been a myth, but today—after the mayoraltiesof Bilandic and Byrne, and with Washington now in office—eventhe myth no longer prevails. The continuing conflict in thecity council, with Washington's forces being in the minority,has also contributed to the change in state-local relations.The city council divisions carry over to a divided legislativedelegation in Springfield. Underlying the present situationare maneuvers by the various potential candidates for the 1987mayoral election. Some clues as to the outcome can be seen inthe election returns for U.S. Senator in the 1984 contest betweenincumbent Charles Percy and Congressman Paul Simon. Black votersdeserted Charles Percy in 1984; in the past, they had stronglysupported him.     

Analyzing the representativeness of internet political participation

Political participation researchers have developed several evaluative techniques to assess the representativeness of political participation patterns. Yet, while the Internet has become a mainstream avenue for political participation in the United States, current assessments of online participation insufficiently apply these methods. To incorporate these methods we begin by drawing upon resource theory to inform two-stage ordered-logit models of online and offline political participation. Our results suggest that the factors predicting online participation often differ from the factors that predict offline participation. Even so, we find that those from higher socioeconomic backgrounds tend to disproportionately possess these distinct online determinants. Next, we use a wide spectrum of political opinion questions to determine whether online participators opinions reflect or distort those of the general population. Overall, we find that online participation tends to relate moderately with liberal preferences. However, because offline participation relates to political attitudes similarly, the Internet only marginally advantages the political voice of liberals. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results.     

Public Opinion and Collective Obligations

This article attempts to identify the general principles that underlie public reasoning about collective obligations and that help explain when political parties can create new obligations or defend existing ones. I use these principles to President Clinton’s unsuccessful attempt to create government health-care plan and attempts by President Bush to privatize Social Security. The success of a party in selling – or defeating – an obligation depends upon what people believe about the competence and capacity of government and the value of autonomy – choices made by each citizen; whether people perceive the obligation as providing floors or establishing ceilings by limiting choice or otherwise restricting opportunities for the better-off; and whether the program is more like insurance or more like welfare. A party’s ability to maintain credibility with voters also depends upon whether party leaders can suppress issues that threaten intra-party elite pacts. When attempts to suppress “taboo” issues like “stem cells” or “black crime” fail, the party loses credibility with its voters and attempts to defend or sell obligations fail.

Magnitude and durability of electoral change: Identifying critical elections in the U.S. Congress 1854–2010

The two hallmarks of a critical election and, hence, of a critical realignment are the magnitude of the observed change and the durability of that change. In addition to offering a new approach to measuring durable change in national party dominance, and providing a non-parametric criterion to identify unusual changes in seat/vote shares, we provide fresh insights via a unifying statistical approach that reflects both of these factors simultaneously. Furthermore, we assess the robustness of critical election determinations in two ways. First, we compare the magnitude of inter-election shifts with both average volatility over the entire time period and volatility relative to a particular time period. Second, as an alternative to the usual perspective, we consider critical elections not as a one-time cataclysm, but rather as a pair (or perhaps even triple) of consecutive substantial shifts, generated by the same underlying factors. Overall, we distinguish six elections that marginally or provisionally meet our criteria to be critical elections. But focusing on pairs of elections, 1858–60 and 1930–32 stand out as critical among all elections since the 1850s.     

Family Influences on Female Offenders’ Substance Use: The Role of Adverse Childhood Events among Incarcerated Women

Childhood maltreatment, witnessing violence, and growing up with absent, addicted, or mentally ill caregivers influence adult physical and psychological well-being and may play an important role in female offending. This study utilizes data from a study of 60 incarcerated women to examine a possible intervening variable in the victimization-crime relationship. We conduct qualitative analyses to examine family influences on substance use among female offenders. Findings indicate that substance use may arise from a need to cope with child victimization and adversity, and that factors such as poor parental supervision may contribute to girls’ substance use. After onset of drug use, many women may turn to further criminal activity to support their habits. Implications for research and intervention are addressed.