Regional stabilization: a model for policy decision

A policy simulative model with the main purpose of simulating the effects of alternative policy moves and obtaining an accurate read-out of resulting urban-suburban conditions is the focus of this paper. The model deals with the movement of various population groups and the resulting effects on some very broad indicators of city-suburban life, rather than with particular topics like transportation, land use and the like. The level of abstraction is thus intermediate and is directed at providing practical policy suggestions for a particular city—Newark—for which the model is calibrated. The model, however, is general enough in nature so that it can be applied to other urban-suburban complexes and therefore the policy suggestions made on a fairly broad basis. The outputs of the model are graphically represented to show the results of alternative policies which then may be compared. As a side benefit the inputs to the model can also serve as a “social report” on the present status of an area. Policy questions to be answered by the model include: Should a city budget be directed somewhat differently? Should a city ask the state or federal government for funding and for how much? What may be expected from imposing a city sales tax, weighing the revenue benefit against costs of lost sales or citizens? And last, would the federal government not be better off by simply giving money to the poor directly instead of to cities?     

Party identification and party closeness in comparative perspective

The present analysis uses data from 1974 and 1981 U. S. cross sections, which incorporate a panel, to compare the standard NES measure of party identification (ID) with a measure of partisanship derived from a party closeness question widely employed in cross-national research. Important features of the two scales are examined by transforming the closeness measure into a scale of very close, fairly close, not very close, and no preference corresponding to the seven-point ID scale. The scales are highly correlated and are similar in their reliability. More than 75% of the independents in the ID scale choose a party in the closeness version, and over half of these select the fairly close category. Respondents do not volunteer that they are independents when that alternative is not stated in the question.     

Potential impact on birth rates of reforms in laws governing contraceptive marketing

This article attempts to estimate the potential impact on birth rates of relaxing various legal restrictions on the marketing of contraceptives and to identify countries offering particular potential for such policies. The approach is through a quasi-experimental cross-sectional analysis of various configurations of laws in 82 countries. Results indicate that relaxation of a complex of interrelated restrictions offers the potential to lower birth rates and hence population growth by a full percentage point. The estimates are made in context of an analysis of covariance in which other key determinants of birth rates (measures of economic, demographic and health status) are also considered. While the cross-sectional design does not allow assessment of time frame for the impact of such changes, some guidance is available from the experience of two countries.     

Statistical tests of discrimination in punishment

A method, adopted from the labor econometrics literature, is proposed for detecting discrimination in punishment. The method requires the separate estimation of time served and punishment probability equations for, say, whites and blacks. The coefficients from the white equation are used to predict the punishment blacks would receive if treated like whites. A test of no discrimination against blacks is a test that the black punishment predicted by the black equation is equal to the punishment predicted by the equation using the white coefficients but the black endowments or characteristics. A further test is proposed that evaluates the economic efficiency of disparities in punishment. The test is restricted to measuring the recidivism effect of equality of treatment in punishment. The discrimination test and the efficiency test are illustrated using the U.S. Board of Parole data for 1972. Statistically significant racial disparities in punishment are uncovered and are found to be economically inefficient.     

Evaluation of the south carolina comr/cunity long-term care medicaid waiver for the elderly and disabled

Medicaid waivers play an important role in the health policy process. Various health care policy initiatives have encouraged states to experiment ith their Medicaid programs by expanding coverage to populations not traditionally covered by Medicaid, or by delivering Medicaid services in non traditional ways. Lessons learned by individual states' Medicaid waivers could be an important part of the health care reform debate. This paper presents an evaluation of a Medicaid waiver operating in South I Carolina. The South Carolina Community Long-term Care Waiver for the Elderly and Disabled is evaluated for cost effectiveness, quality of care, and client satisfaction. This evaluation shows that the waiver is highly effective in offering individuals who are medically and financially eligible for Medicaid supported nursing home care a viable, cost effective, high quality alternate to institutionalization.