The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

Re-Defining Defamation: Psychological Sense of Community in the Age of the Internet

In the era of traditional media, courts typically relied upon geographic constraints, including where a plaintiff lived or worked, to determine the appropriate community in defamation cases. The rise of the Internet has dramatically changed society – easily and immediately linking users across geography while allowing the rapid spread of information through a variety of channels that pose a challenge to the traditional media model centered around editorial judgment and professional ethics. Thanks in part to its global reach, the Internet has allowed users to engage in both business and social relationships around the world. Because of this, a person's need for a good reputation can no longer be confined solely to location. As a result, this article argues that courts must begin to evaluate other factors when determining relevant community in online defamation cases, positing that courts should utilize factors associated with psychological sense of community theory.     

Defining A Product Market for Spanish-Language Broadcast Media: Lessons from United States v. Univision Communications,Inc. and Hispanic Broadcasting

In 2003, a media merger with dramatic content and policy implications went largely unnoticed. Little attention was paid to the transaction because it did not affect the majority; it affected the largest minority population in the United States: Hispanics. Although up to 65% of Hispanics prefer Spanish-language media, most broadcast media now come from one corporation, Univision. In approving the consolidation of Univision and Hispanic Broadcasting, the FCC ignored product market findings by the Department of Justice as well as its own policy precedent, which includes numerous exceptions for Spanish programming to promote content and ownership diversity. Consistent with the FCC's mandate to protect the public interest, a demand-side analysis is undertaken, positioning the audience as consumer. Industry evidence, product market thresholds, and ownership rules are applied to United States v. Univision, Inc. and Hispanic Broadcasting, with the conclusion that a separate product market must exist for Spanish language broadcast media.     

Is anyone listening? Mass and elite opinion cueing in the EU

The paper analyses the connections between elite and mass opinion in the European Union. It considers both the ways in which mass publics use heuristics supplied by political elites to form their EU opinions, and the ways in which political elites respond to the opinions of the mass publics they represent. The paper employs data from simultaneously-conducted elite and mass surveys carried out in sixteen European countries in 2007. The results show that masses and elites in Europe do appear to take cues from one another in forming their EU opinions. Political elites base their individual-level opinions on the average position taken by their respective (national) party supporters. Mass respondents base their opinions on the average position taken by elite members of the (national) party with which they identify.     

Health care technology assessment: A policy planning tool

Health care technology has developed more rapidly than have the tools to aid decisions regarding that technology's assessment, acquisition and allocation. This article proposes theoretical and technological bases for formulating and analyzing policies for technology assessment. A computerized procedure for measurement and reporting of judgmental sources of technology assessment is presented, accompanied by a pilot study illustrating how the procedure can be used for both research and practical applications.