By-elections,changing fortunes,uncertainty and the mid-term blues

If voters care about the size of the government's majority, then by-election votes should exaggerate national swings. Moreover, if there is uncertainty about the outcome of the general election and if voters” preferences are skewed in such a way as to give more weight to the “downside” outcome (least favourite party wins) than the “upside” (favoured party wins with a larger than preferred majority), then there will be a systematic tendency for governments to lose by-elections, regardless of any changes in national support. These predictions go beyond those generated by conventional explanations. The theory is successfully tested against data from 383 post-War elections.     

The political economy of Chinese environmental protection: Lessons of the Mao and Deng years

Despite the very different policies, structures and rhetoric associated with the Mao and Deng years, environmental outcomes for China were depressingly similar. Neither the political economy of command under Mao Zedong nor the more market-based political economy under Deng Xiaoping adequately came to terms with the problems of environmental pollution and degradation, to the extent that many observers, both inside and outside China, argue that the current state of the natural environment-the legacy of those years-is so parlous as to threaten future material advance. This article compares and contrasts environmental protection under the two regimes, draws out lessons for the current administration of China, and specifically argues that while the market-based reforms begun under Deng Xiaoping have delivered fast rates of economic growth, it is important to recognise that recent well-meaning policies to encourage environmental protection are put at a discount unless the threats to the environment of increasing market liberalisation are faced.     

Core Values, the Magistracy, and the Auld Report

In this article I shall first examine the core values underlying criminal justice about which there is some consensus. I then briefly review the current arrangements and decision making processes in magistrates courts in England and Wales before relating the core values to those arrangements and processes. This leads me to certain conclusions about the magistracy that I contrast with Auld's conclusions and recommendations.     

Hungarians and Germans: A literaryHassliebe

Originally presented as a paper at the Biennial Conference on Central and Eastern Europe, University of South Florida, March 30–April 1, 1995.     

Some conditions maximizing eyewitness accuracy: A learning/memory analogy

Jurors continue to rely heavily on eyewitness testimony despite numerous demonstrations that it is often inaccurate. As part of the effort to provide jurors with good estimates of the accuracy of any specific testimony, a study was designed to test the proposal that eyewitness accuracy is governed by the same variables and in the same way as is retention of much simpler material in classical learning and memory paradigms. Prior exposure to the criminal (trials), arousal value of the incident (drive), and delay between prior exposure and incident, and between incident and test (inner-trial intervals) all affected eyewitness accuracy in the expected manner. Correct recognitions of the criminal in a line-up ranged from 14 percent to 86 percent, depending on the particular conditions under which the incident was observed.