Terrorist success in hostage-taking missions: 1978–2010

This article investigates the determinants of logistical and negotiation successes in hostage-taking incidents using an expanded dataset that runs from 1978 to 2010. Unlike an earlier study, the current study has a rich set of negotiation variables in addition to political, geographical, and organizational variables associated with the perpetrators or targets of the attacks. The 33 years of data permit a split into two subperiods: 1978–1987 and 1988–2010, before and after the rise of religious fundamentalist terrorist groups. Logistical success depends on resource and target vulnerability proxies, while negotiation success hinges on bargaining variables. Among many novel findings, democracy significantly hampers logistical success throughout the entire period. Kidnappings, tropical climates, and high elevations foster logistical success. Religious fundamentalist terrorists’ logistical advantage during 1978–1987 was lost during 1988–2010. Abducting protected persons, making demands on the host country, and staging incidents in a democracy limit negotiation success for the terrorists. If terrorists moderate or replace one or more demands, the likelihood of negotiation success for the terrorists goes up.     

Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to devise a methodology for estimating the impact of transnational terrorism on tourism. Using monthly data from 1970–1988, we estimate the relationship between terrorism and tourism for Spain. We find that terrorist events have had a significant negative impact on the number of tourists visiting Spain. A typical incident is estimated as scaring away just over 140,000 tourists when all monthly impacts are combined. Moreover, the causality is unidirectional: terrorism affects tourism, but not the reverse.     

CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT IN BURUNDI： A CASE STUDY OF PROTECTION OF REFUGEES AND IDPS IN POST-CONFLICT RECONCILIATION AND TRANSITIONAL JUSTICE

Violations of human rights and genocide in Burundi are among the most contentious issues which continue to attract the attention of academic discourse. This paper is concerned with the question of human rights violations in Burundi from a historical and comparative perspective. It seeks to trace the root causes of Burundi＇s sullied human rights record over 52 years since independence from Belgium in 1962, the role of the military in human rights violations, including mass killings of civilians and extra-judicial executions of political opponents and the fact that the post- conflict constitutional architecture has not succeeded in establishing accountability and responsibility for these violations; in providing truth, justice and reparations to the victims and in putting an end to the culture of impunity which seems to be entrenched in Burundian society. Moreover, by analyzing critically the results from interviewing 113 Burundians and 16 non-Burundians, this paper argues that there will be no political stability enduring peace without addressing these issues in a comprehensive manner.     

DO PARENT EDUCATION PROGRAMS PROMOTE HEALTHY POSTDIVORCE PARENTING? CRITICAL DISTINCTIONS AND A REVIEW OF THE EVIDENCE

Most parent education programs are designed to improve child well-being following divorce by changing some aspect of parenting. However, there has been relatively little discussion of what aspects of parenting are most critical and the effectiveness of programs to change different aspects of parenting. This paper addresses these issues by: 1. Distinguishing three aspects of post-divorce parenting that have been targeted in parent education programs; 2. Reviewing evidence of the relations between each aspect of parenting and the well-being of children and; 3. Critically reviewing evidence that parent education programs have been successful in changing each aspect of post-divorce parenting.