Optimal Government Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds

During recent years, more state and local governments have made provisions in their budgets for establishing and maintaining contingency reserve funds. A recent study by the National Conference of State Legislatures(NCSL) found that over half of all states now have such funds. The basic purpose of these contingency reserve funds, also referred to as "rainy day" funds, is to insulate governmental budgets from unexpected fiscal disruptions brought about by such factors as unanticipated revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns. What have received less attention, however, are the criteria which governments need to use in deciding whether to establish such contingency reserves in the first place, and if so, how large these reserves should optimally be. This article explores these two issues, using the State of California as an illustrative case study     

Acute selenium poisoning: suicide by ingestion

Selenium is a ubiquitous element in the environment essential to the human diet and widely utilized in industrial processes. Fatal human selenium intoxication is rare. The authors report a case in which investigators recovered a bottle of gun-bluing agent beside a 24-year-old man. He exhibited signs and symptoms typical of acute selenium intoxication presenting with nausea and vomiting, followed by pulmonary edema and rapid cardiovascular collapse approximately 3 to 4 h after ingestion. Classic electrocardiographic (EKG) changes, which have been reported to occur in acute selenium intoxication, included sinus tachycardia with ST wave alteration. Toxicological results confirmed elevated blood and tissue concentrations. The cause of death was ascribed to acute selenium intoxication, which ensued rapidly after oral consumption. The manner of death was suicide. This case report, which presents an overview of acute and chronic selenium poisoning, underscores the value of thorough toxicologic analyses of tissue and body fluids in humans.     

Survey of crowbar and household paints in burglary cases-population studies, transfer and interpretation

Experimental data useful for the interpretation of paint evidence recovered during burglary cases were obtained. A population study was carried out on 41 blue crowbars seized on suspects in Switzerland and 37 blue paints traces found at burglary scenes. Paint traces were also searched on the blades of 207 crowbars seized by the police in Switzerland and 24 white traces were analysed: these paints were analysed using infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in order to estimate relative frequencies of each paint type. Simulated contacts were carried out between crowbars and painted wood in order to study the phenomenon of transfer and to evaluate the amount of paint transferred: a total of 198 simulations were carried out including individual, successive and cross transfer. The paint properties such as the chemical composition and its age influenced the amount of paint transferred. Cross transfer from the tool paint to the wood and vice versa was regularly observed. Moreover, secondary transfer of paint coming from the preceding wooden surfaces was also systematically observed: this could establish links between several burglary scenes and a suspected tool. A scenario of a burglary case involving the cross transfer between tool and household paints is proposed as a numerical example: the evaluation of such case was formalised using likelihood ratios based on the experimental data obtained.     

Differences in trauma symptoms and family functioning in intra-and extrafamilial sexually abused adolescents

This study investigated to what extent abuse-related symptoms and family functioning are related to intra- or extrafamilial sexual abuse. One hundred adolescents (12 to 18 years old) were recruited shortly after disclosure of the abuse. Information from the participants was obtained through self-report questionnaires and a semistructured interview. Fifty-three percent of the adolescents reported clinically significant symptoms. Data did not support the idea that intrafamilial sexually abused adolescents report more symptoms than extrafamilial sexually abused adolescents. Type of abuse did not account for the differences and variety of reported symptoms or for differences in family functioning. Family functioning-in particular, lack of cohesion- was an independent contributor to internalizing trauma-related problems.     

Lineup Identification by Children: Effects of Clothing Bias

This study examined effects of clothing cues on children's identification accuracy from lineups. Four- to 14-year-olds (n = 228) saw 12 video clips of individuals, each wearing a distinctly colored shirt. After watching each clip children were presented with a target-present or target-absent photo lineup. Three clothing conditions were included. In 2 conditions all lineup members wore the same colored shirt; in the third, biased condition, the shirt color of only one individual matched that seen in the preceding clip (the target in target-present trials and the replacement in target-absent trials). Correct identifications of the target in target-present trials were most frequent in the biased condition, whereas in target-absent trials the biased condition led to more false identifications of the target replacement. Older children were more accurate than younger children, both in choosing the target from target-present lineups and rejecting target-absent lineups. These findings suggest that a simple clothing cue such as shirt color can have a significant impact on children's lineup identification accuracy.     

A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model

Time series of event counts are common in political scienceand other social science applications. Presently, there arefew satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in suchdata and accounting for the dynamic processes in event countsregression. We address this issue by building on earlier workfor persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weightedmoving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journalof Political Science 44(4):823–843, 2000). We developan alternative model for stationary mean reverting data, thePoisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model. Issuesof identification and model selection are also considered. Wethen evaluate the properties of this model and present bothMonte Carlo evidence and applications to illustrate.     

A comparative evaluation of a new generation jail

This study reports findings from an evaluation of a new generation jail in a large southwestern state. The jail is one component of a complex containing a traditional jail, an indirect supervision facility (barracks), and the new generation jail. Using survey and operational data, we compare the new generation jail to the other two facilities. The findings provide generally positive support for the effectiveness of the new generation jail. Inmates and staff were much more satisfied with the physical facilities. Staff perceived it as more secure, though they reported only limited advantages in safety and security. Violence and disciplinary problems were substantially lower. However, no savings in staffing levels were noted, nor were there differences in job satisfaction for staff in the new generation jail. We discuss the implications of the findings and suggest additional directions for jail evaluations.     

A. Reviews and notes of recent bibliographies

i. Middle East and Islam: A Bibliographical Introduction (Bibliotheca Asiatica 15). Edited by Diana Grimwood‐Jones, for the Middle East Libraries Committee [MELCOM]. Revised and enlarged edition. Zug, Inter Documentation Company, 1979. pp. ix, 429.

ii. Middle East Studies and Libraries. A Felicitation Volume for Professor J.D. Pearson. Edited by B.C. Bloomfield. London, Mansell, 1980. pp. xi, 231.

iii. Cultures of the Islamic Near East: A Guide to Introductory Readings for the Non‐Specialist. By John W. Bagnole. Washington, D.C., America‐Mideast Educational & Training Services, Inc. (Occasional Paper, No. 4), 1978. pp. ii, 79. $4.00

iv. The Modern Arab Woman: A Bibliography. By Michelle Raccagni. Metuchen, N.J. & London, The Scarecrow Press, 1978, pp. x, 282.