Examining the moderating role of family cohesion on the relationship between witnessed community violence and delinquency in a national sample of adolescents

Witnessed community violence has been linked to a number of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents. Guided by Cicchetti and Lynch's (1993) ecological-transactional model, this study aimed to examine the impact that family-level factors had on negative outcomes associated with witnessed community violence. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored the moderational role of family cohesion in the relationship between witnessing community violence and delinquent behavior while taking demographic variables into account. Results from the investigation suggested that low levels of family cohesion were predictive of delinquency after controlling for race, gender, past delinquency, and direct trauma. In addition, the findings suggested that family cohesion moderated the impact of witnessed community violence on future delinquent behavior. Future directions for research and implications for practice were also discussed.     

Willingness to innovate in family law solicitor practice in England and Wales: a qualitative study

This paper analyses interview data from 24 long-qualified family law solicitors working in private practice traditional settings in the Midlands and North of England. Experiences and perceptions of change are explored in order to contribute to contemporary understandings of practitioner willingness to innovate in the new legal services landscape, particularly as family law solicitors have been called upon to adopt new practices such as unbundling to survive. Three ‘types’ of emergent identities are identified amongst the sample respondents. These are linked to attachment to traditional role orientations, values and boundaries, as well as practice settings and perception of opportunities and threats.     

Traffic violations: determining the meaning of violence in sexual trafficking versus sex work

This contribution will consider the current linkages among migration, sex work, trafficking in persons, and violence. Efforts to end trafficking in persons are perhaps the most important contribution to antiviolence program design in the global arena over the past decade. Significant funding and technical assistance are flowing to organizations to prevent and alleviate the effects of trafficking, and new legislative regimes have been established within countries and globally (e.g., the 2002 UN Crimes Commission's Protocolon Trafficking in Persons). To explore how trafficking and international sex trade issues converge, the author draws on participant observation in international debates such as Beijing Plus Five and the Crimes Commission from 2000 to 2001, on interviews with key figures in the antitrafficking world and with sex-worker rights advocates, and on program documentation.     

A New Electorate? Comparing Preferences and Partisanship between Immigrants and Natives

As immigrants constitute a large and rising share of both the population and the electorate in many developed democracies, we examine aspects of immigrant political behavior, a vital issue that has gone largely unexplored outside of the U.S. context. We focus on Germany and Great Britain, two countries that provide good leverage to explore both within-country and cross-national variation in Europe. Our overall aim is to assess the impact of the immigration context. As a first step, we investigate whether immigrants and natives have systematically different attitudes on two issues that have dominated postwar European politics: social spending and redistribution. With controls in place, we observe that immigrants are no more likely to support increased social spending or redistributive measures than natives and find support for hypotheses highlighting selection effects and the impact of the immigration regime. Where we do find an opinion gap, immigrants tend to have more conservative preferences than natives. As a second step, we explore the determinants of immigrant partisan identification in Britain and find that the salience of the immigration context helps explain immigrants' partisan attachment to the Labour Party.     

Predictions put into practice: a quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago’s predictive policing pilot

Objectives

In 2013, the Chicago Police Department conducted a pilot of a predictive policing program designed to reduce gun violence. The program included development of a Strategic Subjects List (SSL) of people estimated to be at highest risk of gun violence who were then referred to local police commanders for a preventive intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of the pilot on individual- and city-level gun violence, and to test possible drivers of results.

Methods

The SSL consisted of 426 people estimated to be at highest risk of gun violence. We used ARIMA models to estimate impacts on city-level homicide trends, and propensity score matching to estimate the effects of being placed on the list on five measures related to gun violence. A mediation analysis and interviews with police leadership and COMPSTAT meeting observations help understand what is driving results.

Results

Individuals on the SSL are not more or less likely to become a victim of a homicide or shooting than the comparison group, and this is further supported by city-level analysis. The treated group is more likely to be arrested for a shooting.

Conclusions

It is not clear how the predictions should be used in the field. One potential reason why being placed on the list resulted in an increased chance of being arrested for a shooting is that some officers may have used the list as leads to closing shooting cases. The results provide for a discussion about the future of individual-based predictive policing programs.

     

Making Voting Pay

Those who regard low turnout as a particular problem for democracy are sometimes led to endorse compulsory voting as a solution. However, even if there is a moral duty to vote, such legal coercion seems illiberal. This article, by appeal to the analogous case of blood donations, suggests that we should consider instead paying people incentives to vote. This would achieve the aim of increasing turnout, particularly among underrepresented groups, without threatening individual liberty in the way that compulsion seems to.     

Use of an Automated System to Evaluate Feature Dissimilarities in Handwriting Under a Two-Stage Evaluative Process*†

The two-stage evaluative process is an established framework utilized by forensic document examiners (FDEs) for reaching a conclusion about the source(s) of handwritten evidence. In the second, or discrimination, stage, the examiner attempts to estimate the rarity of observations in a relevant background population. Unfortunately, control samples from a relevant background population are often unavailable, leaving the FDE to reach this determination based on subjective experience. Automated handwriting feature recognition systems are capable of performing both feature comparison and discrimination, yet these systems have not been subjected to empirical validation studies. In the present study, we repurposed a commercially available automated system to generate empirical distributions for ranking feature dissimilarity scores among pairs of handwritten phrases. The blinded results of this automated process were used to survey an international cohort of 36 FDEs regarding their strength of support for same- and different-writer propositions. The survey served to cross-validate FDE decision-making under the two-stage approach. Results from the survey demonstrated a clear pattern of response consistent with ground truth. Predictive regression analyses indicated that the automated feature dissimilarity scores and the log of their cumulative distribution functions accounted for 72% of the variability in FDE opinions. This study demonstrated that feature dissimilarity scores acquired using automated processes and their distributions are closely aligned with FDE decision-making processes supporting the heuristic value of the two-stage evaluative framework.