Second-order elections

Abstract The composition of the directly elected European Parliament does not precisely reflect the 'real' balance of political forces in the European Community. As long as the national political systems decide most of what there is to be decided politically, and everything really important, European elections are additional national second-order elections. They are determined more by the domestic political cleavages than by alternatives originating in the EC, but in a different way than if nine first-order national elections took place simultaneously. This is the case because European elections occur at different stages of the national political systems' respective 'electoral cycles'. Such a relationship between a second-order arena and the chief arena of a political system is not at all unusual. What is new here, is that one second-order political arena is related to nine different first-order arenas. A first analysis of European election results satisfactorily justifies the assumption mat European Parliament direct elections should be treated as nine simultaneous national second-order elections.     

A new method for the evaluation of matches in non-recombining genomes: application to Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (STR) haplotypes in European males

A 9-locus microsatellite framework (minimal haplotype), previously developed for forensic purposes so as to facilitate stain analysis, personal identification and kinship testing, has been adopted for the establishment of a large reference database of male European Y-chromosomal haplotypes. The extent of population stratification pertaining to this database, an issue crucial for its practical forensic application, was assessed through analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) of the 20 regional samples included. Despite the notion of some significant haplotype frequency differences, which were found to correlate with known demographic and historic features of Europeans, AMOVA generally revealed a high level of genetic homogeneity among the populations analyzed. Owing to their high diversity, however, accurate frequency estimation is difficult for Y-STR haplotypes when realistic (i.e. moderately sized) datasets are being used. As expected, strong pair-wise and higher order allelic associations were found to exist between all markers studied, implying that haplotype frequencies cannot be estimated as products of allele frequencies. A new extrapolation method was therefore developed which treats haplotype frequencies as random variables and generates estimates of the underlying distribution functions on the basis of closely related haplotypes. This approach, termed frequency 'surveying', is based upon standard population genetics theory and can in principle be applied to any combination of markers located on the Y-chromosome or in the mitochondrial genome. Application of the method to the quality assured reference Y-STR haplotype database described herein will prove very useful for the evaluation of positive trace-donor matches in forensic casework.     

Animal bites caused by a song bird?

The report describes a case of post-mortem scavenging by a songbird. A married couple had opened the cage of an astrild (finch) prior to their joint death. The body of the wife showed unusual patchy epidermal lesions on parts of the body not covered by the clothing, which were obviously caused by the songbird. According to the observations made by Roll and Rous they are attributable to "pecking and pulling". The behaviour of the bird was most probably due to lack of fluid.     

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure

We discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, Great-Britain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment.     

Does a positive finding of tetrahydrocannabinol in the blood result from ingestion of Indian frankincense (Boswellia serrata)?

The exculpatory statement that a positive THC finding in the blood is due to the consumption of hemp products or passive exposure to cannabis smoke has been disproved by the monitoring of hemp products and recent passive inhalation studies conducted in social settings, which showed that these conditions are unlikely to produce a positive result in the blood. The defense that the ingestion of Indian olibanum may result in a positive THC concentration in the blood is unusual; it is based on older publications where authors had speculated on a possible association of the synthetic pathways of THC from terpenoid precursors also being present in olibanum and the biogenesis of THC in hemp. It had further been speculated whether chemical or plant-derived pathways may also occur in humans. A thorough understanding of the different pathways and recently published results have outdated these speculations.