Fertility,development, and family planning

Earlier studies by Tsui and Bogue (1978) and Mauldin and Berelson (1978) suggested that family planning efforts account for 3-4 times the variance in fertility than is explained by indicators of socioeconomic development. This paper replicates, extends, and revises these analyses. Selection of a different set of countries for sampling was found to have little effect on the earlier results. In addition, neither factor scaling nor the addition of distributional variables had a substantial effect. However, weighting countries by population size was found to produce a decline in explained variance. It was found that although family planning has a stronger direct effect on fertility than any other variable when countries are considered, the effect of education is stronger when people are considered. When more developed countries were included in the analysis, the combination of prior fertility and mortality explained almost all the variation in current fertility. This finding suggests that fertility is more responsive to longterm, stabilized changes in mortality than to short-term changes. 4 methodological conclusions are derived from these analyses: 1) unless a sample of countries is overtly biased, the selection of a sample on the basis of available data has little impact on the results; 2) stepwise methods can be utilized to avoid the inclusion of a large number of variables in a regression equation; 3) weighting of cases has a substantial impact on results; and 4) since most variables have little direct influence on fertility change, analysis should be extended to examine indirect influences. These results suggest a policy which invests economic resources in education and mortality reduction as well as family planning efforts. Investments in primary and secondary education may reduce mortality as well as fertility.     

A short journey through North‐Western Kansu and the Tibetan border country

Kashmir, at present, is not being treated as a priority by politicians or policy makers. The author argues that this is a grave mistake. The ground realities which have continued to blight the lives of millions in the region for decades have not been resolved. Not only do they demand resolution, but leave the region fragile and unstable, a danger exacerbated by the nuclear capabilities of India and Pakistan. The domestic narratives within India and Pakistan which lead to heightened hostility have been exacerbated by recent events such as the Mumbai Hotel attacks and cross-border skirmishes. A resolution of Kashmir would reverse these inherent tensions. The unresolved situation also undermines the human rights of the inhabitants of Kashmir. Likewise, it leads to an unconscionable waste of the natural resources of the region, as well as needless restrictions in Indo-Pakistani trade and money being tied up in military conflict. A resolution of the conflict would also have wide-scale benefits in the region, reaching to Afghanistan and China. In conclusion, the author surveys what might be practical ways of resolving the Kashmir problem.     

Explaining geographic concentrations of discrimination in Germany: small group interaction,youth and spatial context

Eastern Germans are often stereotyped as racist, and some empirical data as well as periodic incidences of violent hate crime seem to confirm the stereotype. This article offers a partial explanation of geographic concentrations of discrimination in Germany that centres on processes of boundary drawing in real contexts between small groups of youths. This is a meso-level approach that contrasts with macro- and micro-level sociological explanations of discrimination. We consider it more correct to say that conditions in much of eastern Germany – as well as in many parts of western Germany – are such that discrimination is more likely to occur within small groups in those places. Data are presented from 29 cities participating in an anti-racism programme that provide some insight into how boundaries are drawn and how some cities are currently attempting to reduce discriminatory behaviour within small groups. Knowledge about how group dynamics leads to discriminatory behaviour is particularly useful for those trying to prevent racism at the local level; intervention is more feasible at the small-group level due to their inherent visibility and accessibility for youth guidance counsellors.