The Study of Intelligence in Theory and Practice

The use of probability propositions is widespread in Intelligence estimation and strategic forecasts, as in everyday life. This paper attempts to give clear meaning to the use of probability statements for future strategic assessment. The first half presents possible interpretations in the philosophy of probability, while the second part applies the understandings of the first half to the Intelligence estimation process. A recommendation for a combination of ‘a priori’ interpretation of probability with a higher level of ‘relative frequency’ interpretation is the result of this paper.     

Beyond cold war pipedreams: What the West was not

In much of the debate about the current role of frontier development (settlement, colonization) in many so-called Third World countries, frontiers in the latter are invariably compared negatively with the late nineteenth-century experience of the IIS frontier held up as an example that others should attempt to follow Recent approaches to the history of the IIS frontier however have questioned the Jeffersonian and/or Turnerist ideal of an egalitarian democracy ofsmall farmers who managed to construct an harmonious and viable frontier in the New World. Rather than contributing positive cultural and political attributes and characteristics to American society, as was claimed by many IIS historians during the Cold War era, the IIS frontier involved genocide, demographic collapse, ecological devastation, economic exploitation and dependency, widespread inter-ethnic violence, social polarization, political corruption, disempowerment and ideological intolerance. The IIS frontier experience did not represent an agrarian reform favouring small farmers, nor was it one of equal opportunity: it should not, therefore, be held up as a model for the rest of the world to imitate if at all possible.     

Life Satisfaction and Student Engagement in Adolescents

Situated within a positive psychology perspective, this study explored linkages between adolescent students’ positive subjective well-being and their levels of engagement in schooling. Specifically, using structural equation modeling techniques, we evaluated the nature and directionality of longitudinal relationships between life satisfaction and student engagement variables. It was hypothesized that adolescents’ life satisfaction and student engagement variables would show bidirectional relationships. To test this hypothesis, 779 students (53% female, 62% Caucasian) in a Southeastern US middle school completed a measure of global life satisfaction and measures of cognitive, emotional, and behavioral engagement at two time points, 5 months apart. A statistically significant bidirectional relationship between life satisfaction and cognitive engagement was found; however, non-significant relationships were found between life satisfaction and emotional and behavioral student engagement. The findings provide important evidence of the role of early adolescents’ life satisfaction in their engagement in schooling during the important transition grades between elementary and high school. The findings also help extend the positive psychology perspective to the relatively neglected context of education.     

Bound for Glory: The Hostage Crisis as Captivity Narrative in Iran

Eschewing conventional analyses of foreign policymaking during the Iranian hostage crisis, this paper examines how media representations of the crisis (November 1979–January 1981) contained important elements of classic American captivity narratives. Five themes are culled from the secondary literature on captivity stories and are used as categories in a content analysis of mass circulation media such as People Magazine and Time as well as more elite publications such as The New York Times and The New Republic . Depictions of Iranians as "devilish savages," calls to rally around the flag, anxious depictions of the hostages' plight and fears that they will "go native," exhortations to stand firm, and heroic leadership are found to be recurring themes in widely read media accounts of the hostage crisis. The results suggest that captivity stories have a continuing influence on popular understandings of America's mission in the world.