Predicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity Over Base Rate Information

The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in relation to state sexually violent person commitment statutes and the Supreme Court's Kansas v. Hendricks decision regarding the constitutionality of such statutes.     

Child maltreatment profiles and adjustment problems in high-risk adolescents

The purpose of this article is to identify profiles of maltreatment experiences in a sample of high-risk adolescents and to investigate the relationship between the derived profiles and psychological adjustment. Participants are 1,131 youth between the ages of 12 and 18 years involved with publicly funded mental health and social services. Information on physical, sexual, and emotional maltreatment and psychological symptoms are obtained in interviews with adolescents and their primary caregivers. Using latent profile analysis, three maltreatment profiles are identified: "sexual+physical+emotional maltreatment," "physical+emotional maltreatment," and "low maltreatment." Adolescents in the two maltreatment profiles generally have significantly higher scores on symptom scales compared with those in the "low maltreatment" profile, but scores in the two maltreatment profiles do not differ. Findings highlight the need for agencies to identify and provide appropriate intervention for youth who experience multiple types of maltreatment.     

Testing the three- and four-factor models of the Korean version PCL-R as predictors of two antisocial outcomes – recidivism and risk

Psychopathy has consistently been associated with antisocial outcomes. The three- and four-factor models have been best fitted to data relating to Korean serious offenders (N?=?451), offering construct validity of the Korean Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). However, no study has yet tested the predictive power of the Korean PCL-R to explain two different types of antisocial outcomes: (1) risk of inmates measured by correctional officers during incarceration and (2) recidivism after release. By exploring these two forms of antisociality, here we sought to establish the predictive and construct validities of the Korean version of PCL-R. We found that the deviant lifestyle (Factor 3) performed best for predicting both antisocial forms (risk and recidivism) and that the deficits in interpersonal (Factor 1) and affective (Factor 2) abilities also uniquely predicted one subtype of risk, which suggests the three-factor model is better than the four-factor model in predictions. These findings will be useful for criminal justice experts and practitioners in Korea.     

Judges’ Perceptions of Screening,Assessment, Prevention,and Treatment for Substance Use, Mental Health,and HIV among Juveniles on Community Supervision: Results of a National Survey

Juvenile Justice‐Translational Research on Interventions for Adolescents in the Legal System (JJ‐TRIALS) National Survey was funded in part to describe the current status of screening, assessment, prevention and treatment for substance use, mental health, and HIV for youth on community supervision within the US juvenile justice system. Surveys were administered to community supervision agencies and their primary behavioral healthcare providers, as well as the juvenile or family court judge with the largest caseload of youth on community supervision. This article presents the findings from the judges’ survey. Survey results indicated juvenile and family court judges were open to innovations for improving the court's performance, rated their relationships with collaborators highly, and appreciated the impact of screening, assessment, prevention, and treatment on judicial practices.     

Food security and secure food in the Anthropocene

Delinquency in middle class areas (and why it is low) has been a neglected topic in criminology. The book by Singer [1] advances knowledge about this topic, focussing on Amherst (NY), but also comparing it with the high crime area of Newark (NJ). The book discusses various community and neighborhood factors that might have contributed to the low crime rate in Amherst, but also emphasizes the importance of parenting and juvenile justice processing. The book highlights the need for more research on community/neighborhood effects on offending after controlling for individual and family factors. It also highlights the need for more research on self-reported delinquency versus court processing of middle class versus lower class youth, and on possible juvenile justice system biases after controlling for characteristics of offenses and offenders. Its main policy implications are that more programs and opportunities are needed for youth in lower class areas, there should be more efforts to increase collective efficacy in these areas, and juvenile court processing should be minimized as much as possible.     

气候变化与美国国家安全部门:气候变化问题的安全化

通过分析安全研究领域中人们普遍采用的几种建构主义安全化研究理论,来解读美国气候变化问题安全化的过程,可以发现:在诠释气候变化问题的安全化过程这个问题上,以实践为核心的社会科学理论或分析性框架比注重话语分析的社会科学理论或分析性框架更加有效。强调将实践上的变化作为成功构建安全的标准,这就将目标指向了如何将科学认识加以社会构建这一理论工作。把安全化当做一种更为普遍的认识构建过程的一个具体案例,这将可能将我们导向一种理论的改良,这种改良的理论所要描述的是一个更为广大的由行为主体和网络构成的整体构架,一个随时间推移产生的新兴现象的知识演变过程,一个文件与言论发挥多重作用的复杂话语体系。此外,要想更好地理解气候变化问题在国家层面上的安全化进程,一个很有价值的做法就是进行比较案例研究,特别是同以中国为代表的国家进行对比,因为中国在气候政策决策上推行的是一种经济发展框架。中美在气候政策方面的关系缓和推动了2015年巴黎气候大会的召开,这一事例将为比较案例研究提供一个有趣的框架。     

Disentangling the Impact of Female Victimization Across Racial and Ethnic Lines

Men and women experience violent victimization at comparable rates. Yet, women are more likely to experience intimate partner violence, sexual violence, and stalking, as well as witness the victimization of others more often than their male counterparts. Victimization is a leading predictor of subsequent criminal behavior, and the threat of victimization or witnessing the harm of another is also a significant strain. Using the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods data, this study examines how Black, Latina, and White female youth uniquely experience and respond to direct and vicarious victimization. The outcomes provide insight into the different ways Black, Latina, and White young women experience victimization, respond emotionally to victimization, as well as criminally cope with victimization. Findings suggest there are significant differences in vicarious victimization experiences, but not direct victimization experiences, between Black, Latina, and White female youth. Furthermore, victimization experiences do impact the likelihood of young women’s offending differently depending on their race or ethnicity. And finally, bootstrapped mediation analyses reveal negative emotions differentially impact the relationship between victimization and offending for Black, Latina, and White female youth. Thus, while there are similarities between young women’s experiences, this study highlights there are also many differences. Therefore, a one-size-fits-all approach cannot address the complexities of violent victimization. Without considering these differences, we risk further victimizing our most vulnerable populations. This study, and research like it, are needed to better combat violence against, as well as craft responses to and provide services for, female victims of all colors.     

Joined‐Up for What? Response to Carey and Harris on Adaptive Collaboration

Carey and Harris present the concept of adaptive management as a practice for supporting effective collaboration, suggesting that performance information be used to modify actions. They observe that end‐outcome performance information is less useful because of long delays between actions and effects, and recommend instead that the performance information should concern the collaborative process itself. The New Zealand government has followed a similar path to the Australian journey described by Carey and Harris. First, New Zealand tried using end outcomes to drive collaboration. Then, New Zealand tried using process measures, but found that the resulting collaboration lacked purpose and urgency. More recently, New Zealand has found great success in using intermediate‐outcome measures to drive adaptive collaboration: measures with intrinsic value, but short delay between action and effect. We echo Carey and Harris’ call for adaptive collaboration, but write to suggest that intermediate outcomes, rather than process measures, may drive more purposive management.