Policymaking and policy analysis in Latin America—A return journey

This paper reviews and updates the conceptual approaches of the author's Journeys Towards Progress (1963). It focuses first on distinctions explaining differences in the path of policymaking and in its effectiveness. Distinctions are made between pressing and autonomously chosen policy problems, between privileged problems and neglected ones that must manage to “ride the coattails” of the former to receive attention, and between policy tasks that are tackled with more motivation than understanding and those with the opposite characteristic. Addressing then similarities in experience with policymaking, the paper first comments on fracasomania (the failure complex) and on the incapacity ever to be surprised at both consequences and determinants of under-development. Indirect and unanticipated effects of policies are illustrated through a Colombian example. A Concluding Lament suggests that the watch for side-effects must be unusually wide-angled in today's Latin America.     

An epidemiological assessment of problematic contacts to members of Congress

In order to assess the nature of threat assessment activity pertaining to members of Congress, 4387 cases involving threatening and other problematic contact were analyzed. The cases were studied regarding subject characteristics, articulated motives, as well as several aspects of contact behavior in relation to approach behavior. Approachers were significantly less likely to have articulated threat language prior to or during their contacts and were also less likely to have stated a policy grievance (foreign or domestic) as the source of their concern. Further, approachers were substantially more likely to have expressed help seeking requests as part of their prior and approach-related contacts and were less likely to have had racial or sexualized content within their contacts. Approachers were also significantly more likely to have had a criminal record as well as displayed symptoms suggestive of major mental illness. Subjects engaging in approach behavior were also less likely to have used an alias, were less likely to be a direct constituent of the target and were more likely to have contacted multiple congressional targets. The implications for threat assessment activity are discussed.     

DNA analysis in the forensic medical examination of material evidence: the problem of individualization

The criterion of sufficiency of genetic information for establishing identity should be accepted for adequate realization of the potentialities of DNA identification as a legal proof. Attaining of this point in expert evaluations will be considered sufficient for formulation of a categorical conclusion on the source of the object. The key point in the choice of this criterion should be clear-cut definition of the identification task; analysis of equivalent probability values is suggested as its technology. The choice and regulation of the reference value should be carried out at an inter-departmental level.