Voter response to congressional campaigns: new?techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior

Scholarship on congressional elections typically analyzes either the sum or the division of the major party vote at the district level. Our main innovation is to model the votes received by each candidate as a separate dependent variable, utilizing statistical methods developed to analyze multiparty elections. Because we are dealing with a substantive area in which endogeneity problems are rampant, we synthesize an instrumental variables approach with a “compositional data” model. This approach allows one to study the mobilizing and persuasive effects of congressional campaigns at the aggregate level.     

Family Business or Social Problem? The Cost of Unreported Domestic Violence

Social interest in problems such as domestic violence is typically motivated by concerns regarding equity, rather than efficiency. However, we document that taking steps to reduce domestic violence by reporting it yields substantial benefits to external parties. Specifically, we find that although children exposed to as‐yet‐unreported domestic violence reduce the achievement of their classroom peers, these costs disappear completely once the parent reports the violence to the court. This suggests that the public has an interest in helping families to overcome their problems in general and to report domestic violence in particular. It also suggests that social and judicial interventions may help combat negative peer effects in schools.     

Exsanguinated blood volume estimation using fractal analysis of digital images

The estimation of bloodstain volume using fractal analysis of digital images of passive blood stains is presented. Binary digital photos of bloodstains of known volumes (ranging from 1 to 7 mL), dispersed in a defined area, were subjected to image analysis using FracLac V. 2.0 for ImageJ. The box-counting method was used to generate a fractal dimension for each trial. A positive correlation between the generated fractal number and the volume of blood was found (R(2) = 0.99). Regression equations were produced to estimate the volume of blood in blind trials. An error rate ranging from 78% for 1 mL to 7% for 6 mL demonstrated that as the volume increases so does the accuracy of the volume estimation. This method used in the preliminary study proved that bloodstain patterns may be deconstructed into mathematical parameters, thus removing the subjective element inherent in other methods of volume estimation.     

The balanced scorecard: Sustainable performance assessment for forensic laboratories

The purpose of this article is to introduce the concept of the balanced scorecard into the laboratory management environment. The balanced scorecard is a performance measurement matrix designed to capture financial and non-financial metrics that provide insight into the critical success factors for an organization, effectively aligning organization strategy to key performance objectives. The scorecard helps organizational leaders by providing balance from two perspectives. First, it ensures an appropriate mix of performance metrics from across the organization to achieve operational excellence; thereby the balanced scorecard ensures that no single or limited group of metrics dominates the assessment process, possibly leading to long-term inferior performance. Second, the balanced scorecard helps leaders offset short term performance pressures by giving recognition and weight to long-term laboratory needs that, if not properly addressed, might jeopardize future laboratory performance.     

Reelection and Legislative Power: Surprising Results from Brazil

A diverse and growing literature ties legislative professionalization and power to career paths. In particular, higher rates of reelection and longer legislative careers should produce more professional, competent, and high‐quality legislatures. Legislators have more incentives to strengthen their own institution when they intend to remain there for a long career. Using data from the most recent constitutional convention in Brazil, we show that legislators with greater prospects for long careers were actually less likely to support strengthening the legislative branch. We explain this as part of a local equilibrium where career legislators’ short‐term need for pork trumped their long‐term interest in a stronger institution.     

Implementing Intelligence-Led Policing: An Application of Loose-Coupling Theory

Purpose

This research is intended to inform a knowledge gap in the literature and present the first national findings related to intelligence-led policing adoption among state and local agencies. Specific practices are identified to inform scholars and practitioners regarding intelligence-led policing behaviors.

Methods

Original survey research from a federally-funded project is gleaned to explore intelligence-led policing adoption through a loose-coupling theoretical perspective. Negative binomial and logistic regression models are employed to identify predictive relationships.

Results

Agencies nationwide appear to be closely following the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan recommendations to enhance information sharing. Consistent with the Department of Homeland Security’s Target Capabilities List is also observed. Agency size appears to have a significant effect on key organizational information sharing behaviors. The findings are tempered due to limitations in the research design.

Conclusions

Local agencies appear to be tightly-coupled with the recommendations put forth in the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan in their efforts to adopt intelligence-led policing. Agency size appears to enhance adoption across most dependent metrics. This research progresses the limited evidence base and progress regarding this emerging policing philosophy.     

When the Interest Rate on the National Debt Is a Policy Variable (and “Printing Money” Does Not Apply)

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) argues that the interest rate on the national debt for a monetary sovereign is a policy variable, not subject to whether bond markets “accept” or “reject” it. This paper defines measures of the components of the standard analysis of fiscal sustainability. It then methodically describes the Federal Reserve's operations relevant for understanding why interest rates on government debt in the United States have been and continue to be driven by monetary policy. A corollary that emerges—“printing money,” as economists usually understand it—is not applicable and has never been advocated by MMT.