Lobbying business interests in Russia

Our article examines business lobbying in contemporary Russia within the wider context of lobbying in the decision‐making system overall. It is argued that, although lobbies were an important part of the old Soviet system, the defence of corporate interests was held within ‘natural’ limits by an overriding concern to maintain the established consensus ‐ in the form of a bureaucratic corporatist economy. In the perestroika and post‐perestroika years, however, lobbies themselves took front stage becoming the decisive element in the economy. Easily the most important, in terms of economic strength and political influence, were the various business interest groups, which we have attempted to classify according to their lobbying potential and the channels of influence available to them. The peculiarities of business interest lobbying are also considered, including the as yet unsatisfied quest for political representation, the tendency for management and employees to ‘row together’, the huge potential of uncontrollable lobbying ‘from below’ in the face of growing social tensions and, finally, the disparity between lobbying and other forms of state‐society relations.     

Probability of default models of Russian banks

This paper presents results from an econometric analysis of Russian bank defaults during the period 1997–2003, focusing on the extent to which publicly available information from quarterly bank balance sheets is useful in predicting future defaults. Binary choice models are estimated to construct the probability of default model. In the first part of the paper we analyse bank survival over the financial crisis of 1998. We find that preliminary expert clustering or automatic clustering improves the predictive power of the models and incorporation of macrovariables into the models is useful. Heuristic criteria are suggested to help compare model performance from the perspectives of investors or banks supervision authorities. In the second part of the paper we use the probability of default models developed in the first part in rolling windows to analyse the Russian banking system trends after the crisis 1998.     

Russian politics in a time of uncertainty∗

It is not only the vitality of the incumbent political regime but the very basis of the democratic system in Russia that has been tested by the recent economic crisis, argues Sergei Smolnikov, Visiting Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo. So far, the regime has reacted to the situation by recruiting the old nomenklatura to manage the country. Since it is forced to maneuver in a political and economic environment that is qualitatively different from the Soviet era, the nomenklatura might eventually attempt to reconstruct this environment. Smolnikov highlights a growing disparity between the major structural elements of the regime's foreign policy. If exacerbated, this trend could lead to a deterioration of Russia's relations with the West, and might eventually make Russia an international outcast. Strategically, this situation is dangerous not only for the future of democracy in Russia but also for international security. To ensure democracy in Russia remains vibrant, the West should not reduce its commitment to engage Russia by economic and political means.     

Y-chromosome STR haplotype diversity in Brazilian populations

A sample of 198 unrelated males distributed among the five geopolitical regions in Brazil were typed for the minimal Y-STR haplotype composed of microsatellite loci DYS19, DYS385I/II, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392 and DYS393. Gene frequency data, gene diversity, haplotype diversity and power of discrimination were estimated. An AMOVA indicated that 99.97% of the haplotypic variation is found within regions and only a small 0.03% and non significant variation is found among the five regions (Fst=0.00031, P-value=0.43). This result suggests that a single national database of Y-STR haplotypes can be used in the quantitative assessment of matches in forensic casework in the Brazilian population. A significant haplotype diversity of 99.8% was found and 172 different haplotypes were observed in 198 chromosomes. Haplotype (14-11, 14-13-29-24-11-13-13) with five occurrences in 198 chromosomes was the most frequent in Brazil.