Russian politics in a time of uncertainty∗

It is not only the vitality of the incumbent political regime but the very basis of the democratic system in Russia that has been tested by the recent economic crisis, argues Sergei Smolnikov, Visiting Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo. So far, the regime has reacted to the situation by recruiting the old nomenklatura to manage the country. Since it is forced to maneuver in a political and economic environment that is qualitatively different from the Soviet era, the nomenklatura might eventually attempt to reconstruct this environment. Smolnikov highlights a growing disparity between the major structural elements of the regime's foreign policy. If exacerbated, this trend could lead to a deterioration of Russia's relations with the West, and might eventually make Russia an international outcast. Strategically, this situation is dangerous not only for the future of democracy in Russia but also for international security. To ensure democracy in Russia remains vibrant, the West should not reduce its commitment to engage Russia by economic and political means.     

Y-chromosome STR haplotype diversity in Brazilian populations

A sample of 198 unrelated males distributed among the five geopolitical regions in Brazil were typed for the minimal Y-STR haplotype composed of microsatellite loci DYS19, DYS385I/II, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392 and DYS393. Gene frequency data, gene diversity, haplotype diversity and power of discrimination were estimated. An AMOVA indicated that 99.97% of the haplotypic variation is found within regions and only a small 0.03% and non significant variation is found among the five regions (Fst=0.00031, P-value=0.43). This result suggests that a single national database of Y-STR haplotypes can be used in the quantitative assessment of matches in forensic casework in the Brazilian population. A significant haplotype diversity of 99.8% was found and 172 different haplotypes were observed in 198 chromosomes. Haplotype (14-11, 14-13-29-24-11-13-13) with five occurrences in 198 chromosomes was the most frequent in Brazil.     

Profit rather than politics: the production of Lenin monuments in Soviet Latvia

The archived documents on outdoor sculpture commissions in Soviet Latvia reveal that the thesis of art having been colonized by the Communist party is too simplistic. Sculptors and architects had vested business interests in monument production. Until the mid-1950s, the cream of academically-educated Latvian sculptors was sidelined by Russians who mass-produced concrete replicas of statues portraying Lenin or Stalin. The majority of the works came through the mass production of works of visual propaganda in the Māksla art factory. Also, less-talented local sculptors were able to find a role satisfying the demand for cheap, decorative sculpture. Looking for ways to access this market, the local art elite invented aesthetic and semiotic arguments in support of the original, locally-made, Lenin sculptures that would be cast in permanent materials and could serve as the spatial organizers of new communist rituals in the urban environment for which they won municipal commissions resulting in the reconstruction of central squares in Latvian towns. What this means is that artists driven by their mercantile interests and not by ideology played an active part in elaborating the aesthetics of communist ideology, and therefore provided support for the dominant discourse of power relations.     

Probability of default models of Russian banks

This paper presents results from an econometric analysis of Russian bank defaults during the period 1997–2003, focusing on the extent to which publicly available information from quarterly bank balance sheets is useful in predicting future defaults. Binary choice models are estimated to construct the probability of default model. In the first part of the paper we analyse bank survival over the financial crisis of 1998. We find that preliminary expert clustering or automatic clustering improves the predictive power of the models and incorporation of macrovariables into the models is useful. Heuristic criteria are suggested to help compare model performance from the perspectives of investors or banks supervision authorities. In the second part of the paper we use the probability of default models developed in the first part in rolling windows to analyse the Russian banking system trends after the crisis 1998.