Space–Time Modeling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq

The US and its Coalition partners concluded combat operations in Iraq in August 2010. Rather surprisingly, little empirical evidence exists as to the factors that contributed to the ebb and flow in levels of violence and the emergence and disappearance of hot spots of hostilities during the campaign. Building upon a tradition of criminology scholarship, recent work demonstrates that Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks are clustered in space and time and that these trends decay in a manner similar to that observed in the spread of disease and crime. The current study extends this work by addressing a key potential correlate of these observed patterns across Iraq—namely, the timing and location of a variety of Coalition counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. This is achieved by assessing the co-evolving space–time distributions of insurgency and counterinsurgency in the first 6 months of 2005. To do so, we employ a novel analytic technique that helps us to assess the sequential relationship between these two event types. Our analyses suggest that the number of COIN operations that follow insurgent IED attacks (moderately) exceeds expectation (assuming that events are independent) for localities in the vicinity of an attack. This pattern is more consistent than is observed for the relationship in the opposite direction. The findings also suggest that less discriminatory COIN operations are associated with an elevated occurrence of subsequent insurgency in the vicinity of COIN operations in the medium to long term, whilst for more discriminatory and capacity-reducing COIN operations the reverse appears to be true.     

Expert Testimony of the Battered Person Syndrome, Defendant Gender, and Sexual Orientation in a Case of Duress: Evaluating Legal Decisions

The current study examined the utility of expert testimony of the battered person syndrome (BPS) in a case of duress and the extent to which defendant gender, defendant sexual orientation, and participant gender influence mock jury decisions in a case of duress. Participants (N?=?413) read a scenario based on U.S. v. Dixon (2006) and answered questions assessing verdict, guilt, sentence length, duress legal elements, and attributes typically ascribed to victims of abuse. Results showed heterosexual female defendants were assigned the lowest sentences and met more of the legal elements of duress (i.e., were coerced, more likely to be believed, and purchased a gun to prevent harm) and attributes (i.e., experienced severe abuse, learned helplessness) compared to other defendants. When mock jurors received expert testimony, they provided lower rates of guilt and sentencing for defendants. Results also showed the inclusion of BPS expert testimony increased ratings for many of the legal elements of duress and attributes typically associated with intimate partner violence. In addition, results suggested that while heterosexual female defendants are more likely to be believed in a case of duress, expert testimony of BPS is helpful to all defendants. Limitations and future directions for research and practice are discussed.     

Toxicology and Circumstances of Death of Homicide Victims in New South Wales, Australia 1996–2005

Abstract:  To determine the prevalence and circumstances of psychoactive substances amongst homicide victims, 485 consecutive cases autopsied at the NSW Department of Forensic Medicine (1/1/1996–12/31/2005) were analyzed. Substances were detected in 62.6% of cases, and illicit drugs in 32.8%. Alcohol, cannabis, opioids, and psychostimulants were most commonly detected. Alcohol and cannabis were both more prevalent amongst males. Mean ages were significantly younger for decedents who tested positive for a substance and for an illicit drug. Cases where death resulted from a physical altercation were more likely to have had alcohol and cannabis present. Illicit drugs were prominent amongst firearms deaths. The proportion of alcohol positive cases increased from 25.0% on Monday to 49.4% for Saturdays/Sundays. Alcohol was more common in incidents in the 0001–0600 h and 1800–2400 h periods. Psychoactive substances appear to substantially increase the risk of homicide, although there are important differences between drug classes in the circumstances of such incidents.     

War/Truth: Foucault,Heraclitus and the hoplite Homer

This article extends and critiques Michel Foucault's political sociology of war by taking it beyond its modern subjects. Positioning his work alongside Homer, Heraclitus and Plato, it analyses relations between war, truth and race in the transition from Archaic to Classical Greece. In doing so, it approaches philosophical texts as direct reflections on specific historical experiences of war, making the case for a political theory of fighting as a necessary and under-developed aspect of critical war studies. Such an approach, the article concludes, opens up new scholarly possibilities for the political sociology of war and resources political intervention against war-waging powers whose authority—inside and outside the academy—derives from a supposedly authoritative relation to the history and conduct of fighting.     

Battleground: candidate selection and violence in Africa’s dominant political parties

ABSTRACT

This article develops a theory – rooted in the experience of the African National Congress in South Africa – to explain how, and why, a dominant political party is less likely to conduct orderly elections to select its political leadership. First, I demonstrate that canny party leaders – operating in the space between a divided society and a weak state – make an ideological turn to a “congress-like” political party, which is clever (in the short term) because it provides party leaders with an in-built electoral majority. It is, however, also a dangerous manoeuvre because it essentially endogenizes social competition for state resources inside the dominant party. This displacement of social competition away from the public sphere towards the partisan organization increases the likelihood of disorderly competition for party candidacies. Second, I demonstrate how this competition need not necessarily become the basis of violent competition inside the dominant party. The party leadership can use intra-party elections to stabilize competition, but only if the party invests in an organization that applies impartially the rules that govern the election.     

Ummah or tribe? Islamic practice,political ethnocentrism,and political attitudes in Indonesia

Existing research has uncovered a link between religious practice and political ethnocentrism. Religious individuals are relatively inclined to both support policies that benefit their own ethnic group and support political competitors seeking to represent them. These findings are broadly consistent with a large body of literature that examines the relationship between religion and ethnic prejudice. To date, empirical research has concentrated overwhelmingly on Western, Christian contexts. There is, however, reason to believe that Islamic practice may produce more universalistic beliefs and attitudes. This paper examines the relationship between religious participation and political ethnocentrism in Indonesia, this world’s largest Muslim-majority country. Using survey data collected during the lead-up to the 2009 national elections, this paper examines the relationship between religious practice and expressed preference for co-ethnic political leadership. It finds that a respondent’s self-reported level of religious activity strongly correlates with stated preference for co-ethnic leadership. These findings bolster confidence that the relationship between religious participation and ethnocentrism holds beyond Western Christian contexts. For Indonesia, deepening Islamic practice could thus predict a rise in ethnocentrism, threatening the country’s reputation for tolerance.