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71.
In some Latin American nations, policy change occurs frequently, while in others it is stable, less prone to shifts with the prevailing political climate or shocks. The conditions under which institutional rules and the powers of key actors influence the capacity for governance vary, and this variation is seldom addressed in the literature. This project examines the effects of the interactions between key policymakers (the executive and the legislature) in Latin America on policy stability across different institutional frameworks. Countries with simultaneously strong executives and weak legislatures are shown to have unstable policy environments, as are countries with a history of unified government and, to a lesser extent, candidate‐centered electoral systems. 相似文献
72.
Recent research has demonstrated that burglary clusters in space and time, resulting in temporal changes in crime hotspot
patterns. Offender foraging behavior would yield the observed pattern. The offender as forager hypothesis is tested by analyzing
patterns in two types of acquisitive crime, burglary and theft from motor vehicle (TFMV). Using a technique developed to detect
disease contagion confirms that both crime types cluster in space and time as predicted, but that the space–time clustering
of burglary is generally independent of that for TFMV. Police detections indicate that crimes of the same type occurring closest
to each other in space and time are those most likely to be cleared to the same offender(s), as predicted. The implications
of the findings for crime forecasting and crime linkage are discussed.
相似文献
Shane D. JohnsonEmail: |
73.
Recent contributions have used combinatorial algorithms to determine the likelihood of particular social choice violations in rank sum scoring. Given the broad importance of rank sum scoring (e.g., in non-parametric statistical testing, sporting competition, and mathematical competition), it is important to establish the level of ambiguity generated by this aggregation rule. Combinatorial likelihoods are naïve, however, in that they assume each possible outcome sequence for an event to be equally likely. We develop a computational algorithm to extend upon previous combinatorial results as to the likelihood of a violation of transitivity or independence in rank sum scoring. We use a similar computational scoring approach to analyze the empirically-observed likelihood of each such violation across fourteen NCAA Cross Country Championships. Within the data, rank sum scoring fails to specify a robust winning team (i.e., one that also rank sum wins against each possible subset of opponents) in 4 of 14 cases. Overall, we find that empirical likelihoods of social choice violations are consistently (significantly) overestimated by combinatorial expectations. In the NCAA data, we find correlated ability (quality) levels within team (group) and discuss this as a cause of lower empirical likelihoods. Combinatorial analysis proves reliable in predicting the order of empirical likelihoods across violation type and event setting. 相似文献
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Law and Critique - Can mythology be a form of critical theory in the service of right? From the standpoint of an Enlightenment tradition, the answer is no. Mythology is characterised by... 相似文献
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Shane D. Johnson Wim Bernasco Kate J. Bowers Henk Elffers Jerry Ratcliffe George Rengert Michael Townsley 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2007,23(3):201-219
Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential
burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing
space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all
areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For
three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density.
The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting
and crime reduction more generally.
相似文献
Shane D. JohnsonEmail: |
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Political Behavior - Gender and politics research argues that men are more hawkish and supportive of militarized confrontations with foreign foes, while women ostensibly prefer more diplomatic... 相似文献