Exchange rate policy modeling and forecasting the exchange rate: Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar

The exchange rate is a very important key financial variable that affects decisions made by the foreign exchange investors, exporters, importers, bankers, businesses, financial institutions, policymakers, and tourists in the developed as well as the developing world. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the value of international investment portfolios, competitiveness of exports and imports, value of international reserves, currency value of debt payments, and the cost of tourists. Movements in exchange rates thus have very important implications for any country's economy's business cycle, trade, and capital flows and are therefore crucial for understanding financial developments and changes in economic policy. The study will be looking at the various aspects of country's economic policy with respect to the exchange rate and modeling and forecasting the exchange rate. The study will be analyzing India's exchange rate story and will be discussing the structure of the foreign exchange market in India in terms of participants, instruments, and trading platform as also a turnover in the Indian foreign exchange market and forward premia. The study will be attempting to develop a model for the rupee–dollar exchange rate taking into account variables from monetary and microstructure models as well as other variables including intervention by the central bank. The main focus will be on the exchange rate of the Indian rupee vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar, that is, the Re/$ rate. The data will be covering from January 1990 through April 2013. This study will be examining the forecasting performance of the monetary model and various extensions of it in the vector autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive framework.     

Who Should Be at the Top of Bottom-Up Development? A Case-Study of the National Rural Livelihoods Mission in Rajasthan,India

It is widely acknowledged that top-down support is essential for bottom-up participatory projects to be effectively implemented at scale. However, which level of government, national or sub-national, should be given the responsibility to implement such projects is an open question, with wide variations in practice. This paper analyses qualitative and quantitative data from a natural experiment of a large participatory project in the state of Rajasthan in India comparing central management and state-level management. We find that locally managed facilitators formed groups that were more likely to engage in collective action and be politically active, with higher savings and greater access to subsidised loans.     

律师与法官关系的重构

律师与法官是一个国家司法的中坚力量,如何构建我国律师与法官的关系,是一个常说常新的话题。笔者在实证调查的基础上,提出了律师与法官关系的重构措施:认为应当加强律师与法官的自律;实现律师与法官的关系合理"隔离";建立律师和法官之间的沟通与互动机制;完善律师与法官的监督与制约程序;构建法律职业共同体。     

Two tricyclic antidepressant poisonings: levels of amitriptyline, nortriptyline and desipramine in post-mortem biological samples

Two deaths due to amitriptyline and desipramine overdoses are reported. The first case deals with a 20-year-old Caucasian male who was found dead at his residence. Toxicological analysis of the blood, urine, liver and kidney revealed the presence of amitriptyline (1.7 mg/l, 0.13 mg/l, 36.0 mg/kg and 98.0 mg/kg) and nortriptyline (0.66 mg/l, 0.74 mg/l, 12.0 mg/kg and 37.0 mg/kg). The gastric content contained only 220 mg of amitriptyline. The urine also contained norverapamil, which was consistent with previous verapamil therapy. The second case involved a 19-year-old Caucasian male who attempted suicide earlier and was on desipramine medication. The blood, urine, liver and gastric content disclosed the presence of desipramine in the concentrations of 14.2 mg/l, 33.7 mg/l, 112.5 mg/kg and 180 mg, respectively. The levels of these tricyclics analyzed by high pressure liquid chromatography were in agreement with the levels reported in the literature. Though with the amitriptyline poisoning no significant anatomic changes were noted, the desipramine-caused death was further supported by the multisystem vascular congestion and ischemic changes consistent with cardiopulmonary failure.     

Symmetrical hypopigmentation of the nipples secondary to trauma

Deviant sexual behavior may lead to unusual skin lesions. The following is a case report of unusual trauma-related, symmetrical lesions of the nipples in a male homosexual from repeated application of bondage apparatus to his areolae and nipples.     

实验性脑挫伤后 Fos蛋白和 NGFR变化与损伤时间关系的研究

目的 检测分析不同损伤时间组实验大鼠脑挫伤灶周围神经细胞中 NGFR阳性染色强度变化与损伤后经过时间之间的关系,对其在脑挫伤时间推断中的作用作出评价。方法 运用免疫组织化学技术（ SABC法）,结合计算机彩色图像分析技术观察大鼠实验性脑挫伤后原癌基因 c－ fos的表达产物 Fos蛋白和神经生长因子受体（ NGFR）的染色变化。结果 （ 1）伤后 0.5h组在挫伤灶周围可见 Fos阳性染色细胞出现。伤后 3h组阳性表达数量和强度达峰值,且分布广泛。后表达逐渐降低。 1d后各组未见 Fos阳性染色强度增加的细胞。对照组染色为阴性。（ 2）伤后 1d组在挫伤灶周围可见少量 NGFR阳性染色细胞,以神经细胞表达为主。伤后 3d组,阳性细胞表达与 1d组相比有显著性增强 (P< 0.01), 数 量 和 着 色 强 度 达 到 高 峰 , 量 多 且 染 色 深 。 之 后 逐 渐 缓 慢 减 弱 。 对 照 组 染 色 为 阴 性 。 可 见 脑 挫 伤 后 Fos和 NGFR在 损 伤 局 部 的 阳 性 染 色 分 别 在 伤 后 早 期 及 随 后 较 晚 时 段 里 出 现 。 前 者 表 达 时 间 短 暂 , 而 后 者 则 持 续 时 间 较 长 , 但 都 有 一 定 的 规 律 性 。 结 论 Fos蛋 白 和 NGFR变 化 可 用 于 脑 挫 伤 后 不 同 时 段 的 损 伤 时 间 推 断 。     

Ocular findings in pediatric deaths under 2 years of age (1994-2004)

Abstract:  Our purpose is to highlight novel ocular findings of 102 forensic pediatric cases under 2 years of age who die suddenly. Forensic information, grossing, and microscopic eye protocol was followed. The most common diagnosis was Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) (57/102). Novel cytoid bodies were present in the retina of 72/102 cases and they were located predominantly 90% (65/72) at the anterior part of the retina ( p  < 0.001). Of the SIDS cases, 85% (47/57) showed the presence of cytoid bodies, and among all diagnosis, SIDS was the most associated with cytoid bodies ( p  = 0.003). A second observation was extramedullary hematopoiesis (EMH) identified in 35/102 cases and 22 of the 57 SIDS cases. The most frequent EMH location was the choroids (29/35). This study is the first to demonstrate the presence of cytoid bodies and extramedullary hematopoiesis in the retinas of SIDS cases and children who die suddenly from other causes.     

华南抗战时期东江纵队的对外工作

东江纵队是抗日战争时期逐步发展壮大的一支华南人民抗日武装,这支武装队伍在华南抗战中严格遵照中共中央的外交原则,灵活运用党的外交政策,结合华南情况开展卓越的外事活动,营救了大批国际友人和盟军人员,还协助英、美搜集日军情报,筹备盟军登陆华南的配合工作,使华南抗日部队威震南疆、蜚声中外,扩大了中国共产党的国际影响力。