An efficient statistical procedure for interpreting DNA single locus profiling data in crime cases.

This paper describes a simplified approach to calculating the Bayesian likelihood ratio for the case where two DNA single locus profiles are to be compared. It explains how the calculation allows for band shift and also for the variation in precision with molecular weight. A simple basic theory section explains the principles of the analysis but more detailed explanations are given in an advanced theory section. Experiments on substantial data collections are described which demonstrate the robustness of the method.     

Murder in south London: a novel use of DNA profiling.

Lorraine Benson's body was found beaten and strangled at Raynes Park, Surrey, in December 1988. Considering the possibility of linked offences, a murder squad was set up to work alongside a team already investigating a rape series in the Kingston area. A man's handkerchief left at a site a quarter of a mile from the murder scene was found to be stained with blood and saliva matching that of the victim. A DNA profile was obtained from a stain of nasal mucus on this handkerchief and found to match a suspect later arrested for an attempted rape in the same locality. Also of forensic interest were dust marks made by the zips of the victim's and defendant's coats and identification of the rope used for strangulation.     

Modification of Housing Mobility Experimental Effects on Delinquency and Educational Problems: Middle Adolescence as a Sensitive Period

Residential mobility is one documented stressor contributing to higher delinquency and worse educational outcomes. Sensitive period life course models suggest that certain developmental stages make individuals more susceptible to the effects of an exposure, like residential mobility, on outcomes. However, most prior research is observational, and has not examined heterogeneity across age or gender that may inform sensitive periods, even though it may have important implications for the etiology of adolescent development. Moreover, there are important translational implications for identifying the groups most vulnerable to residential mobility to inform how to buffer adverse effects of moving. In this study, low-income families were randomized to residential mobility out of public housing into lower poverty neighborhoods using a rental subsidy voucher (“experimental voucher condition”), and were compared to control families remaining in public housing. The sample was comprised of 2829 youth (51% female; 62% Non-Hispanic Black, 31% Hispanic, 7% other race). At baseline, youth ranged from 5 to 16 years old. This study hypothesized that random assignment to the housing voucher condition would generate harmful effects on delinquency and educational problems, compared to the control group, among boys who were older at baseline. The results confirmed this hypothesis: random assignment to the experimental voucher condition generating residential mobility caused higher delinquency among boys who were 13–16 years old at baseline, compared to same-age, in-place public housing controls. However, residential mobility did not affect delinquency among girls regardless of age, or among boys who were 5–12 years old at baseline. The pattern of results for educational problems was similar but weaker. Families with teenage boys are particularly vulnerable to residential transitions. Incorporating additional supports into housing programs may help low-income, urban families to successfully transition to lower poverty neighborhoods.     

Parental Control of the Time Preadolescents Spend on Social Media: Links with Preadolescents’ Social Media Appearance Comparisons and Mental Health

Time spent on social media and making online comparisons with others may influence users’ mental health. This study examined links between parental control over the time their child spends on social media, preadolescents’ time spent browsing social media, preadolescents’ appearance comparisons on social media, and preadolescents’ appearance satisfaction, depressive symptoms, and life satisfaction. Preadolescent social media users (N?=?284, 49.1% female; aged 10–12) and one of their parents completed online surveys. Preadolescents, whose parents reported greater control over their child’s time on social media, reported better mental health. This relationship was mediated by preadolescents spending less time browsing and making fewer appearance comparisons on social media. Parental control over time spent on social media may be associated with benefits for mental health among preadolescents.     

Neighborhood,Family, and Peer Factors Associated with Early Adolescent Smoking and Alcohol Use

There is broad agreement that neighborhood contexts are important for adolescent development, but there is less consensus about their association with adolescent smoking and alcohol use. Few studies have examined associations between neighborhood socioeconomic contexts and smoking and alcohol use while also accounting for differences in family and peer risk factors for substance use. Data drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project (N?=?808), a gender-balanced (female?=?49%), multiethnic, theory-driven longitudinal study originating in Seattle, WA, were used to estimate trajectories of smoking and alcohol use from 5th to 9th grade. Time-varying measures of neighborhood socioeconomic, family, and peer factors were associated with smoking and alcohol use at each wave after accounting for average growth in smoking and alcohol use over time and demographic differences. Results indicated that living in more socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods, lower family income, lower family general functioning, more permissive family smoking environments, and affiliation with deviant peers were independently associated with increased smoking. Lower family functioning, more permissive family alcohol use environments, and deviant peers were independently associated with increased alcohol use. The effect of neighborhood disadvantage on smoking was mediated by family income and deviant peers while the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on alcohol use was mediated by deviant peers alone. Family functioning and family substance use did not mediate associations between neighborhood disadvantage and smoking or alcohol use. The results highlight the importance of neighborhood, family, and peer factors in early adolescent smoking and alcohol use. Future studies should examine the unique association of neighborhood disadvantage with adolescent smoking net of family socioeconomics, functioning, and substance use, as well as peer affiliations. Better understanding of the role of contextual factors in early adolescent smoking and alcohol use can help bolster efforts to prevent both short and long harms from substance use.     

Longitudinal Links Between Identity Consolidation and Psychosocial Problems in Adolescence: Using Bi-Factor Latent Change and Cross-Lagged Effect Models

Most previous identity research has focused on relationships between identity synthesis, confusion, and psychosocial problems. However, these studies did not take into account Erikson’s notion of identity consolidation, that is, the dynamic interplay between identity synthesis and confusion. This study aimed to examine longitudinal relationships and the directionality of the effects between identity consolidation and psychosocial problems during adolescence, using two waves of longitudinal data from 793 Japanese adolescents (49.7% girls; ages 13–14 and 16–17 at Time 1). A bi-factor latent change model revealed that levels and changes in identity consolidation were negatively associated with levels and changes in psychosocial problems. Furthermore, a bi-factor cross-lagged effects model provided evidence that identity consolidation negatively predicted psychosocial problems, and vice versa. Our study facilitates a better understanding of the importance of identity consolidation in the relations between identity components and psychosocial problems.     

Consolidating ZIP Codes for Small Area Fair Market Rents: A Method for Implementing the New Rule

Fair Market Rents (FMRs), calculated for an entire metropolitan region, are used to establish payment standards for the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program. In response to recent criticism that FMRs do not represent rent disparity and restrict households from moving to high-opportunity areas, a new rule introducing Small Area Fair Market Rents (SAFMRs) has been issued. SAFMRs are based on ZIP codes to reflect local market rents and increase the number of payment standards used to administer the HCV program. The purpose of this research is to determine whether the number of payment standards can be reduced by consolidating ZIP codes, while adhering to the primary objectives of the SAFMR rule. The ZIP code grouping process conducted offers one method for reducing the number of payment standards needed to implement the new rule; however, the rent analysis reveals the over- and underestimation of SAFMRs for some ZIP codes.     

How Do Developers Respond to Land Use Regulations? An Analysis of New Housing in Los Angeles

There is strong evidence that land use regulations constrain housing production. We know less about how real estate developers respond to specific zoning provisions. I compare the characteristics of new multifamily housing with baseline land use regulations in two sets of rail station areas in Los Angeles. I supplement this building-scale analysis with expert interviews. I find that developers were most sensitive to density restrictions and parking requirements. The average development in the Vermont/Western area had 112% of the maximum allowable residential density and 94% of the minimum required parking. Koreatown’s average development had 99% of the maximum density and 88% of the required parking. But, there was variation by area and whether a building was affordable or market rate, apartment or condominium, and by development size. Additionally, regulatory implementation can matter as much as the written regulations themselves. I recommend that cities take an evidence-based approach to reforming regulations and implementation processes.