The Polish Shipyard: Myth,Economic History and Economic Policy Reform in New Zealand*

The New Zealand economy before the election of the Fourth Labour Government in 1984 is often portrayed as something not only highly regulated — but as something uniquely so amongst developed nations, with a stagnant economy declining in the post‐war era and nearing collapse by the 1984 election — the Polish shipyard. We show that New Zealand was not overly‐regulated by the standards of the time, with many of its policies reflecting development elsewhere; it was generally liberalising in the post‐war era and its economic decline and supposed collapse have been considerably overstated. This invented history gave impetus to radical economic reform after 1984 by framing the apparently failed and bizarre past as forcing inevitable solutions. It is an important constraint on policy‐making in New Zealand, allowing policy to develop only along certain “appropriate” paths. It provided cohesion for policy makers in the face of less than certain results and harnessed emotional and intellectual energy towards the free‐market quest, while legitimating certain policy directions and de‐legitimating others.     

Accurately assessing elderly fall deaths using hospital discharge and vital statistics data

Historically, fatal injury monitoring and surveillance have relied on mortality data derived from death certificates (DC). However, problems associated with utilizing DC have been well documented. Recently, access to and utilization of hospital discharge data (HDD) have offered a new and important secondary source of data regarding in-hospital deaths. However, studies have shown that discrepancies between the HDD and the corresponding DC often exist. This discrepancy was especially evident when comparing HDD to the vital statistics data (VSD) for deaths by falls among those aged 65 and over in 19 states.This was a retrospective forensic review of elderly (age 65 and over) fall-associated fatalities (E880-E888) identified from HDD and VSD in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, between 1997 and 1998. Seventy-seven cases were identified, with the original manner of death listed as natural (34), suicide (1), and accidental (42) on the DC. Following a forensic review of the cases, the manner of the death on the DC should have been changed from natural to accidental in 28% (n = 12) of the cases, representing an undercount in the VSD. Undercounts were due to a failure of clinicians to account for the significance of a fall event that contributed to subsequent pathology and death. In addition, in that 22% (n = 17) of the HDD fall-associated deaths, the fall did not contribute directly or sequentially to the underlying cause of death, thereby representing an overcount in the HDD.Based on these findings we recommend (1) elderly fall surveillance systems should only count HDD E-coded falls that demonstrate a serious traumatic injury which directly or subsequently results in death, (2) all in-hospital fall-associated deaths should be reported to and reviewed by coroner/Medical Examiner offices for determination of the cause and manner of death, and (3) physicians should be better educated in properly completing death certificates.     

Who Governs and How? Non-State Actors and Transnational Governance in Southeast Asia

ABSTRACT

This special issue focuses on transnational governance, essentially cross-border networked forms of co-ordination in which non-state, or private, actors play important or leading roles in providing standards, rules and practices that other actors voluntarily abide by. While not denying the pre-eminent role of the state in governance, we nonetheless believe there is an under-estimation of transnational governance in Southeast Asia and the varied governance role played by non-state actors that go beyond that of simply acting as pressure or advisory groups lobbying or advising states and regional organisations. We provide five different case studies that explore in detail the varied governance roles played by non-state actors using the common analytical framework set out in this introduction. The case studies reveal interesting variations in the architecture of transnational governance, why they emerge, the modes of social co-ordination through which they work to shape actor behaviour and achieve impact, their normative implications, and how these governance schemes intersect with the state and national regulatory frameworks. This special issue, thus, highlights the variegated architecture of governance in this region in which non-state actors play substantial governance roles regulating the conduct of other actors.     

Actions Speak Louder than Words: A Behavioral Analysis of 183 Individuals Convicted for Terrorist Offenses in the United States from 1995 to 2012

Involvement in terrorism has traditionally been discussed in relatively simplistic ways with little effort spent on developing a deeper understanding of what involvement actually entails, and how it differs from person to person. In this paper, we present the results of a three‐year project focused on 183 individuals associated with the global jihadist movement who were convicted in the United States, for terrorist offenses, between 1995 and 2012. These data were developed by a large‐scale, open‐source data collection activity that involved a coding dictionary of more than 120 variables. We identify and explore the diversity of behaviors that constitute involvement in terrorism. We also compare lone actors and those who acted as part of a group, finding that lone actors differed from group‐based actors in key demographic attributes and were more likely to be involved in attack execution behaviors. Implications for counterterrorism are then discussed.     

Coalition government and satisfaction with democracy: An analysis of New Zealand's reaction to proportional representation

Abstract. Following approval of a referendum in 1993, New Zealand replaced its first–past–the–post electoral system with proportional representation (PR). Although support for PR was initially high, less than a third expressed support for the new system a year and a half after its implementation. We examine two explanations for this decline. One theory assumes that dissatisfaction with the new system is the result of a growing alienation with politics, exacerbated by an unpopular coalition government that voters neither expected nor desired. Another theory assumes that evaluations of the new system are mediated by a preference for coalition or single party government. Our results indicate that a preference for single party government, guided primarily by partisan self–interest, has the largest impact. Nevertheless, negative evaluations of the performance of the coalition government helped contribute to a loss in support for PR suggesting that government performance can affect citizen's evaluation of political institutions, particularly when systems undergo radical change.     

Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from New Zealand

Whereas the classic literature on strategic voting has focused on the dilemma faced by voters who prefer a candidate for whom they expect has little chance of winning a seat, we consider the dilemma faced by voters in PR systems who do not expect their preferred party to be in government. We develop hypotheses relating to strategic voting over multi-party governments that we test using the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) campaign study of 2002. We find evidence that expectations play a role in structuring vote choice. While there is clear evidence of wishful thinking there is also evidence that voters respond to expectations about government formation. These expectations may mobilize voters and lead them to defect from their first preference.     

Financial transitions in the PRC: banking on the state?

The reappearance of substantial debt in China after 2008 has refocused attention on the sustainability of the existing financial ‘model’. It’s not just that ‘traditional’ forms of bank-centred debt have re-emerged, but that the informal ‘shadow banking’ sector also seems increasingly fragile, generating debts that do not seem easy to repay. Explanations for the current situation focus on the way in which China responded to the global financial crisis, and on the incentives that exist to go outside the formal and more regulated banking system into often riskier activities. But there are more fundamental structural issues. The current financial system contains within it some of the dna of its predecessor, while the spatial distribution of power and authority is inextricably linked to the way the financial system functions. While it might be possible to tinker with some elements of current financial problems, the relationship between local government financing, land, the banking system and key economic sectors makes it difficult to resolve more structural issues without taking a holistic approach; one that would have fundamental consequences for the nature of the Chinese state, and the distribution of power within it.     

Representation,agendas and institutions

Dynamic agenda representation can be understood through the transmission of the priorities of the public onto the policy priorities of government. The pattern of representation in policy agendas is mediated through institutions due to friction (i.e., organisational and cognitive costs imposed on change) in decision making and variation in the scarcity of policy makers' attention. This article builds on extant studies of the correspondence between public priorities and the policy activities of government, undertaking time‐series analyses using data for the United States and the United Kingdom, from 1951 to 2003, relating to executive speeches, laws and budgets in combination with data on public opinion about the ‘most important problem’. The results show that the responsiveness of policy agendas to public priorities is greater when institutions are subject to less friction (i.e., executive speeches subject to few formal rules and involving a limited number of actors) and declines as friction against policy change increases (i.e., laws and budgets subject to a greater number of veto points and political interests/coalitions).     

Determinants of cabinet size

A large literature examines the composition of cabinets in parliamentary systems, but very little attention has been paid to the size of those cabinets. Yet not only is the size of the cabinet related to the division of portfolios that may take place, cabinet size is also related to policy outcomes. In this article, a theory of party size is considered which examines how coalition bargaining considerations, intra‐party politics and efficiency concerns affect the size of cabinets. Hypotheses derived from the theory are examined using an extensive cross‐national dataset on coalition governments which allows us to track changes in cabinet size and membership both across and within cabinets.     

Exploring the perceived extent of and citizens' support for consumer racial profiling: Results from a national poll

Using data from a national Gallup poll, this article examines several hypotheses related to citizens' perceptions regarding the prevalence of consumer racial profiling (CRP) in the retail setting in America, as well as their support for the practice. The oversampling of Black and Hispanic respondents allowed for analyses that tested for racial differences in perceptions concerning the extent of CRP, and also for racial differences in the support for the use of CRP. The multivariate analysis found that Blacks were more likely than Hispanics and Whites to believe that CRP was widespread; there were no differences in the views of residents from urban and suburban areas; there were no differences between racial and ethnic groups regarding whether profiling was justified; and the more liberal the respondents were, the more likely they felt CRP was widespread and not justified. The authors also discuss the implications of these findings and present some future directions for CRP research.