Rechtsextremistische Wahlabsicht und regionaler Kontext: Mehrebenenanalysen zur Rolle sozialer Milieus und regionaler Gruppenkonflikte in Deutschland

In this article, we test individual and contextual level hypotheses about right-wing extremist voting in Germany derived from cleavage theory and the theory of realistic group conflicts. The data base is exceptional insofar as it allows multilevel analyses of right-wing extremism that include the level of the German districts between the respondent and the federal state level. Our findings demonstrate — to our knowledge for the first time — that the contextual influence of the religious/catholic milieu as well as of the regional tradition of trade union membership reduce the likelihood of a right-wing extremist party preference. Cleavage theory is thus clearly supported. With respect to the theory of realistic group conflicts we find support for some of its implications.     

State Public Opinion, the Death Penalty, and the Practice of Electing Judges

Do state supreme courts act impartially or are they swayed by public opinion? Do judicial elections influence judge behavior? To date these questions have received little direct attention due to the absence of comparable public opinion data in states and obstacles to collecting data necessary for comprehensive analysis of state supreme court outcomes. Advances in measurement, data archiving, and methodology now allow for consideration of the link between public opinion and judicial outcomes in the American states. The analysis presented considers public opinion's influence on the composition of courts (indirect effects) and its influence on judge votes in capital punishment cases (direct effects). In elective state supreme courts, public support for capital punishment influences the ideological composition of those courts and judge willingness to uphold death sentences. Notably, public support for capital punishment has no measurable effect on nonelective state supreme courts. On the highly salient issue of the death penalty, mass opinion and the institution of electing judges systematically influence court composition and judge behavior.     

Three conditions under which experiments and observational studies produce comparable causal estimates: New findings from within‐study comparisons

This paper analyzes 12 recent within‐study comparisons contrasting causal estimates from a randomized experiment with those from an observational study sharing the same treatment group. The aim is to test whether different causal estimates result when a counterfactual group is formed, either with or without random assignment, and when statistical adjustments for selection are made in the group from which random assignment is absent. We identify three studies comparing experiments and regression‐discontinuity (RD) studies. They produce quite comparable causal estimates at points around the RD cutoff. We identify three other studies where the quasi‐experiment involves careful intact group matching on the pretest. Despite the logical possibility of hidden bias in this instance, all three cases also reproduce their experimental estimates, especially if the match is geographically local. We then identify two studies where the treatment and nonrandomized comparison groups manifestly differ at pretest but where the selection process into treatment is completely or very plausibly known. Here too, experimental results are recreated. Two of the remaining studies result in correspondent experimental and nonexperimental results under some circumstances but not others, while two others produce different experimental and nonexperimental estimates, though in each case the observational study was poorly designed and analyzed. Such evidence is more promising than what was achieved in past within‐study comparisons, most involving job training. Reasons for this difference are discussed. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization

Democratization reduces the risk of war, but uneven transitions toward democracy can increase the probability of war. Using country-level data on democratization and international war from the period 1875–1996, we develop a general additive statistical model reassessing this claim in light of temporal and spatial dependence. We also develop a new geopolitical database of contiguities and demonstrate new statistical techniques for probing the extent of spatial clustering and its impact on the relationship between democratization and war. Our findings reaffirm that democratization generally does reduce the risk of war, but that large swings back and forth between democracy and autocracy can increase war proneness. We show that the historical context of peace diminishes the risk of war, while a regional context plagued by conflict greatly magnifies it.     

A retrospective study of drugged driving in Norway

The National Institute of Forensic Toxicology, Oslo, receives blood and urine samples from all Norwegian drivers apprehended on suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. In 1983 we received samples from 1446 drug-suspected drivers, out of which 445 underwent toxicological analysis. The drugs found most frequently were tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) (n = 199), diazepam (n = 166) and amphetamine (n = 102). A cautious interpretation of the data indicate that about 200 of the 445 subjects selected for toxicological analysis drove under severe influence of drugs. Because of the high percentage of submitted cases not analysed for drugs, this figure represents a minimum estimate. Compared with the results from 1978, we found a several-fold increase in detections of THC and amphetamine in 1983. The number of diazepam detections did not increase in a similar way, but we estimated that the diazepam detections would have increased 3-fold if we had analysed as frequent for this drug in 1983 as in 1978.     

Children’s attitudes towards animal cruelty: Exploration of predictors and socio-demographic variations

ABSTRACT

Assessing the risk for animal cruelty is imperative, yet understudied and problematic due to the sensitivity of the topic. Early prevention is critical, yet very little research examines cruelty when it first appears in childhood. The aim of this study was to explore children’s attitudes towards types of animal cruelty, to investigate potential demographic differences, and to examine potential associations between acceptance of cruelty and cognitive and affective factors that place children ‘at-risk’ for cruelty perpetration. Questionnaire data was collected from 1127 children in schools. The results indicate that cruelty attitudes are predicted by some demographic variables such as urban living, being male, younger age and not having pets, but depend on the type of animal cruelty. Acceptance of cruelty predicted low compassion and low reported humane behaviour towards animals. Acceptance of cruelty was predicted by negative attitudes towards animals, lower beliefs in animal minds and low attachment to pets, signifying the importance of targeting such variables in future prevention programmes. This study is an original contribution to research into childhood animal cruelty in the general population, with implications for designing and implementing early prevention programmes that tackle problematic attitudes to cruelty.     

Estimating Individual Contributions to Complex DNA SNP Mixtures.,

High‐throughput sequencing (HTS) of large panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) provides an alternative or complimentary approach to short tandem repeats (STRs) panels for the analysis of complex DNA mixture forensic samples. For STRs, methods to estimate individual contribution concentrations compare capillary electrophoresis peak heights, peak areas, or HTS allele read counts within a mixture. This article introduces three approaches (mean, median, and slope methods) for estimating individual DNA contributions to forensic mixtures for HTS/massively parallel sequencing (MPS) SNP panels. For SNPs, the major:minor allele ratios or counts, unique to each contributor, were compared to estimate contributor proportion within the mixture using the mean, median, and slope intercept for these alleles. The estimates for these three methods were typically within 5% of planned experimental contributions for defined mixtures.     

Dermestes maculatus (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) development under fluoxetine effect using two drug administration models

Fluoxetine is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, commonly used for the treatment of a variety of psychopathological conditions. As such, fluoxetine may be expected to appear in clinical and forensic cases. Dermestes maculatus De Geer (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) has been recognized as a relevant component of the insect fauna associated with decomposing human and animal remains. Experiments were conducted to study the effect of fluoxetine on developing D. maculatus using two‐drug administration models: a non‐living animal model (pork muscle) and a living one (Sus scrofa L. pigs). We assessed the duration of immature stages and total life cycle, as well as morphological parameters (body length, cephalic width, and weight). The effect of fluoxetine was studied at an overdose concentration: In the non‐living animal model the drug was mixed with macerated pork muscle (2000 mg/kg) and in the living animal model, pigs were given the drug orally (833 mg/kg). A control was used for each model. Daily observations were performed from the beginning to the end of the experiments. GC‐MS was used for drug detection and quantification. There were no statistically significant differences in the duration of immature stages, life cycle, larval mortality, morphological parameters, or sex ratio, between treatment and control, regardless of the drug administration model. Given that fluoxetine had no detectable effect on the development of D. maculatus, detection of this drug in forensic situations would not compromise the accuracy of PMI estimations.