Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

Reforming rural Ontario

Abstract: This paper turns the scholarly spotlight onto an overlooked aspect of the Ontario municipal system by exploring the issue of county government reform in four selected communities in southern Ontario. Various proposals for county government reform have been advanced by the provincial government during the last quarter-century; here we consider the “common sense” approach to municipal government reform adopted by the Harris government after its election in 1995. We analyse how four counties have responded to this concerted and forceful attempt to bring about major county restructuring. The study has two major objectives. First, it illustrates the forces that have at once advanced and constrained county government reform in recent years; second, it attempts to explain major differences in the manner in which individual counties have responded to the Harris government's drive for reform. Finally, the paper concludes with some reflections on the viability of rural government in Ontario in the light of the substance and process of county government reform. Sommaire: Cet article examine un aspect négligé du système municipal ontarien en explorant la question de la réforme des gouvernements de comté dans quatre communautés choisies du sud de l'Ontario. Le gouvernement provincial a fait diverses propositions de réforme du gouvemement de comté au cours du demier quart de siècle; ici, nous examinons l'approche basée sur le « ban sens » adoptée par le gouvernement Harris en ce qui concerne les gouvernements municipaux, après son élection en 1995, et nous analysons la manière dont quatre comtés ont réagi à cette tentative concertée et vigoureuse de déclencher une forte restructuration au niveau du comté. Cette étude a deux grands objectifs. Premièrement, elle illustre les forces qui ont à la fois promu et retenu la réforme des gouvernements de comté au cours de ces dernières annèes; deuxièmement, elle essaie d'expliquer les principaux écarts dans la façon dont chaque comté a réagi aux efforts de réforme du gouvemement Harris. Enfin, I'article offer quelques réflexions sur la viabilité du gouvernement rural en Ontario à la lumière du fond et du processus de réforme des gouvernements de comté.     

Harvesting experience: A reappraisal of the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan

For mitigating climate change and adapting to whatever impacts we cannot avoid, there are no politically feasible alternatives to improvements in the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan at this time or for the foreseeable future. Yet improvements in the Action Plan have been obstructed by the diversion of attention and other resources to negotiating a binding international agreement, to developing a predictive understanding of global change, and to documenting the failure of the Action Plan to meet its short-term goal for the reduction of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. Continuous improvements depend upon reallocating attention and other resources to the Action Plan, and more specifically, to the many small-scale policies that have already succeeded by climate change and no regrets criteria under the Action Plan. Sustaining the effort over the long term depends on harvesting experience from these small-scale successes for diffusion and adaptation elsewhere on a voluntary basis.     

Specificity versus representativeness: methodological approaches to the study of Mexico-U.S. migration

"This article compares two sources of data on Mexico-U.S. migration, based on radically different methodologies: the Mexican Migration Project (Promig) and the National Survey of Population Dynamics (Enadid).... This comparative study shows that a micro-social design drawing on multiple community samples, such as Promig, can solve the methodological conflict between specificity and representativeness.... The authors' research also highlights the problem of selectivity and specificity entailed by traditional surveys such as Enadid as a result of restricting their samples to international residents in Mexico and attempting to explain such a complex, socioeconomic process using a limited number of variables." (EXCERPT)     

The regional dimension of Mexican migration to the United States

"Although Mexican migration to the United States dates back over a century, reliable statistics documenting its geographical distribution have only recently become available. This new information, together with the creation of a Geographical Data System and the recent development of multilevel analysis, have allowed one to examine the regional context of Mexican migration to the U.S.... This paper draws on two new tools for context analysis and examines how they can be used to study international migration: first, the Geographical Data systems, which measure physical factors (aridity, isolation, land use, environmental degradation), together with socioeconomic statistics and familial organization and reproduction." (EXCERPT)     

Why do people vote? An experiment in rationality

The study presents the findings of an experiment conducted during the 1993 Canadian fedeal election campaign. Students in two universities were exposed to a ten-minute presentation about the rational model of voting and the ‘paradox’ that so many people vote when it is apparently irrational on a cost-benefit basis. Our data indicate that exposure to the presentation decreased turnout in the election by seven percentage points. This result contributes to the debate abut the effect of rational-choice models on real political behavior. More important, the experimental panel data permit the presentation's effect to be decomposed, and this helps explain why people do vote. In this study, turnout was reduced mainly because the presentation diminished the respondents' sense of duty, an effect that was indirect, because there was no reference in the presentation to such motives. Framing the voting act in rational-choice terms induced some students to reconsider whether they should feel obliged to vote.