A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election

Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system. That vote function model was tested against the results of the 2001 general election. Here we evaluate the results of that test, and offer an appropriately revised model for the forecasting of the upcoming 2005 general election. According to our forecast, a Labour victory appears the most likely outcome.     

The roles of foreign aid and education in the war on terror

This paper presents a theoretical framework and some empirical results showing that the level of foreign aid received reduces the supply of terrorist attacks by recipient countries, as does the recipient country’s level of education. Due account is taken of endogeneity problems in producing these results. They suggest that Western democracies, which are the main targets of terrorist attacks, should invest more funds in foreign aid with a special emphasis on supporting education.     

Universities and State Policy Formation: Rationalizing a Nanotechnology Strategy in Pennsylvania

Technology‐based economic development programs have become a salient feature of the state policy landscape since the 1980s. While much research exists on the topic, little attention has been given to the processes of policy formation. State programs have moved towards high technology areas emphasized at the federal level over the past decades, and nanotechnology became one of the latest targets. This paper examines the eight‐year process through which Pennsylvania adopted a “state‐wide strategy,” culminating in the Pennsylvania Initiative for Nanotechnology. In this process, programs that responded to the interests of multiple agents came first, and a state policy was formulated after the fact. This pattern of “rationalized policy formation,” as opposed to rational policy formation, may be more common than suspected. Its strengths and weaknesses in this Pennsylvania case are discussed.     

Hague Case Law — Latest Developments

Netherlands International Law Review -     

The Impact of Mediating Victim Offender Conflict: An Analysis of Programs in Three States

Abstract This article presents the findings of an analysis of victim offender mediation programs working with the juvenile courts in Albuquerque (NM), Minneapolis (MN) and Oakland (CA). The study is based upon 868 interviews with crime victims and offenders, including pre- and post-mediation interviews and two different comparison groups. The data that emerged from this study indicates that the vast majority of both victims and young offenders experience the mediation process and outcome (restitution agreement) as fair and are satisfied with the program. The mediation process used by the programs in Albuquerque, Minneapolis and Oakland results in greater satisfaction, greater perception of fairness and higher restitution completion rates than found in a matched sample of victims and offenders who were not referred to mediation.     

The diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in the forensic medical study of cadavers]

Presents analysis of cases when pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed during autopsy by forensic medical experts. Before death the patients were not registered at tuberculosis control centres and were administered no treatment for tuberculosis.     

Creatinine analysis in single collection urine specimens.

Controlled and uncontrolled fluid intake studies were conducted on series of volunteers over the 6 or 12 h of the study periods. Urine specimens were obtained from each subject randomly or at specified times relative to fluid ingestion. Creatinine analysis performed by a modification of the Abbott TDx procedure demonstrates that the values obtained from single collection specimens fall almost in the same range as the values from 24 h pooled collection specimens. The creatinine concentration can be used to indicate possible adulteration of urine specimens by dilution as a means of avoiding detection of use of drugs of abuse. Between 4 and 7 h are required for a decrease in creatinine concentration to about 100 mg/dL from an initial mean of about 170 mg/dL. A minimum of 6 h is needed for any creatinine value to fall to 50 mg/dL or less. Thus, it appears that creatinine output is sensitive to the amount of fluid ingested, but the relationship is neither linear nor immediate. The absence of a significant creatinine concentration in a specimen can be used as an indication of direct or indirect adulteration of the urine specimen by dilution or replacement with water. At NDSL-Great Lakes, a decline of the creatinine concentration to 30 mg/dL is used as a cutoff for differentiating between urine specimens that might have been tampered with to avoid detection of drug use and those specimens that are dilute for other reasons. Values at 10 mg/dL or less are suggestive of replacement by water. The information is provided to local commands for investigation prior to initiation of punitive action by the command.     

A report of an international collaborative experiment to demonstrate the uniformity obtainable using DNA profiling techniques.

This paper describes a collaborative exercise intended to demonstrate whether uniformity of DNA profile results could be achieved between different European laboratories. It was shown that this goal can be obtained provided that a common protocol is followed (specifically the use of a common electrophoretic buffer as being the most important parameter). Generally, lower molecular weight loci (with lower molecular weight fragments) such as YNH24 perform better than higher molecular weight loci such as MS43a. The results of the exercise are discussed in relation to the objectives of the European DNA profiling group (EDNAP).     

Scanning electron microscopy: application in the identification of diatoms in cases of drowning.

A simple and rapid method is described for processing organ and water samples for the identification of diatoms so that they can be studied and recorded for taxonomic and diagnostic purposes. Samples are treated with concentrated nitric acid; the fluid obtained is centrifuged, and its sediment is dried, coated, and examined under the scanning electron microscope. The method does not alter the morphology of diatoms and allows the study of freshwater and seawater species present in the organs of bodies found in the water, making possible the diagnosis of drowning under specific conditions.