Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.     

Can corruption foster regulatory compliance?

The legal and economic literatures overwhelmingly support the notion that regulatory compliance is always less in the presence of corruption. This paper departs from those literatures and shows that, whenever public officials are paid fixed wages, an increase in corruption may actually foster compliance. The conditions that make this possible are laid down in a theoretical model. Empirical evidence that corroborates the theoretical findings is provided using firm-level data for 26 transition economies.     

Perspectives on China’s Reforms

<正>The concept of the"Four Comprehensives"—an ideological framework that should guide the next steps of reforming Chinese economy and institutions—goes beyond political discourse.These new guiding mottos summarize a commitment to deepening the ongoing process of transformation carried on in the country Economic transformation The Chinese economy and its institutions are undergoing large-scale reforms aimed at creating a new development model,which shall be increasingly based on domestic consumption and innovation,instead of its past reliance on exports and huge investment in infrastructure.One of the most significant impacts of these changes will be the expansion of the already booming middle class in China,whose consumption will demand higher diversification and quality standards not only from the private sector,but from public services as well.Major Chinese companies must also shift their focus to internal consumers,while reducing their dependence on foreign markets.Some of these companies have already engaged in this change,embracing new technologies of production and moving to higher     

Structural change, technology, and economic growth: Brazil and the CIBS in a comparative perspective

Schumpeterian growth theory stresses the role of structural change in long run growth. Countries which increase the share of technology-intensive sectors in their economic structures benefit more from technological learning and innovation. In addition, they are more able to respond to changes in the international markets and to compete in sectors whose demand grows at higher rates. The paper compares Brazil (and to a lesser extent the CIBS group of countries) from the point of view of the direction and intensity of structural change. It is suggested that structural change has been relatively weak in Brazil and that this has been associated with a less dynamic growth performance since the 1980s.     

French arms, war and genocide in Rwanda

France is now the world's second largest armsexporter, and the largest supplier of weapons to thedeveloping world. The record of France's involvementin Rwanda from 1990 to 1994 has motivated the NGOlobby within France to subject French governmentpolicy – towards the developing world in general, andon arms supplies in particular – to unprecedentedscrutiny. Accordingly, the level and volume ofcriticism of French involvement in Rwanda resulted inthe first ever parliamentary commission to scrutiniseFrench military activity overseas, although this andother official inquiries stopped short of identifyingarms supplies as instrumental in exacerbating theRwandan crisis. A consideration ofFrench arms supplies to Rwanda can offer a template bywhich to measure the nature and degree of France'ssupport for the Habyarimana regime which planned, andthe Sindikubwabo interim government which oversaw, the1994 genocide in that country. Moreover, French armssupplies after France's own and the UN's arms embargodemonstrate how a process of unchecked militarisationmay involve the supplier as well as the supplied inillegality.     

Household income dynamics: a four-country story

In this article, we analyse the dynamics of household per capita incomes using longitudinal data from Indonesia, South Africa, Spain and Venezuela. We find that in all four countries reported initial income and job changes of the head are consistently the most important variables in accounting for income changes, overall and for initially poor households. We also find that changes in income are more important than changes in household size and that changes in labour earnings are more important than changes in other sources of household income.