Uncertainty in probabilistic genotyping of low template DNA: A case study comparing STRMix™ and TrueAllele™

Two probabilistic genotyping (PG) programs, STRMix™ and TrueAllele™, were used to assess the strength of the same item of DNA evidence in a federal criminal case, with strikingly different results. For STRMix, the reported likelihood ratio in favor of the non-contributor hypothesis was 24; for TrueAllele it ranged from 1.2 million to 16.7 million, depending on the reference population. This case report seeks to explain why the two programs produced different results and to consider what the difference tells us about the reliability and trustworthiness of these programs. It uses a locus-by-locus breakdown to trace the differing results to subtle differences in modeling parameters and methods, analytic thresholds, and mixture ratios, as well as TrueAllele's use of an ad hoc procedure for assigning LRs at some loci. These findings illustrate the extent to which PG analysis rests on a lattice of contestable assumptions, highlighting the importance of rigorous validation of PG programs using known-source test samples that closely replicate the characteristics of evidentiary samples. The article also points out misleading aspects of the way STRMix and TrueAllele results are routinely presented in reports and testimony and calls for clarification of forensic reporting standards to address those problems.     

Neighborhood Characteristics, Peer Networks, and Adolescent Violence

Although ecological researchers consistently find high rates of crime and violence within socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods, there is little consensus as to why this pattern exists. To address this question, we use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n=12,747) to examine three related research questions. Are neighborhood characteristics associated with adolescent violence net of compositional and selection effects? Are neighborhood characteristics associated with adolescents’ exposure to violent and prosocial peers? Does peer exposure mediate the neighborhood characteristics–violence association? Results indicate that across a wide range of neighborhoods, socioeconomic disadvantage is positively related to adolescent violence net of compositional and selection effects. Additionally, neighborhood disadvantage is associated with exposure to violent peers, and peer exposure mediates part of the neighborhood disadvantage–violence association. Joining structural and cultural explanations for violence, our findings suggest that neighborhood disadvantage influences adolescent violence indirectly by increasing opportunities for youth to become involved in violent peer networks.     

A Regional Analysis of Industrial Production and Labor Productivity Trends in Tanzania, 1965 to 1972

The Charlie Hebdo affair caused major repercussions in Senegal, not least because President Macky Sall took part in the “march in support of republican values” in Paris on Sunday 11 January 2015. Sall came in for fierce criticism for sympathising with the enemies of Islam. This article analyses the different attitudes expressed in the public demonstrations over the ensuing weeks, as well as in the accompanying media debate. Reactions were not unconnected with a profound ambivalence towards France, manifested in another public debate around the Fifteenth Assembly of the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) held in Dakar just weeks before. They were also affected by local politics, with the opposition seizing the opportunity to discomfit Sall. Also everywhere in play were local Islamic dynamics, particularly Sall’s on-going difficulties with Senegal’s principal religious families and resistance to his efforts to modernise traditional koranic schools (daaras).     

Global Warming: Will There Be Exposure for Directors and Officers and Will It Be Covered?

This article will explore the potential legal liabilities of corporate officers and directors due to the effects of global warming on the business of their corporation, as well as the insurance coverage issues likely to arise under directors' and officers' (D&O) liability policies in light of those liabilities. The article focuses particularly on the pollution exclusion and the bodily injury and property damage exclusions, and also explores scenarios that may engender attempts by insurers to rescind the policy.     

Binding Morality and Perceived Harm as Sources of Moral Regulation Law Support Among Political and Religious Conservatives

Conservatives—both political and religious—are more likely than liberals to support laws regulating traditional or religious morality. The current study applies a moral psychological framework to argue that the association between conservatism and moral regulation law support can be explained in part by binding morality, or a moral orientation that privileges group needs above individual needs and includes concerns about absolutism, collectivism, and purity. Binding morality may directly promote support for moral regulation laws, which enforce traditional rules, discourage deviance, and require adherence to customs regarding bodily and spiritual purity. Binding morality may also indirectly promote support for moral regulation laws by motivating perceptions that “immoral” behaviors are harmful to innocent victims. I test these hypotheses using three analytic samples drawn from the General Social Survey (N = 3669, 7120, 369). Results show that, as expected, binding morality (especially purity) mediates the effects of political and religious conservatism on laws regulating pornography, marijuana, abortion, and euthanasia. Additional analyses exploring views about pornography show that binding morality (especially collectivism) is associated with perceptions of immorality as harmful, which in turn is associated with support for regulation.