The political economy of IMF forecasts

We investigate the political economy of IMF forecasts with data for 157 countries (1999–2005). Generally, we find evidence of forecast bias in growth and inflation. Specifically, we find that countries voting with the United States in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts as domestic elections approach. Countries with large loans outstanding from the IMF also receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting that the IMF engages in “defensive forecasting.” Finally, countries with fixed exchange rate regimes receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting the IMF desires to preserve stability as inflation can have detrimental effects under such an exchange rate regime.     

Understanding food security and international security links in the context of climate change

Food production has been changing significantly in recent years as a result of climate change and of growing demand for food. This article aims to understand the link between food security and international security in the context of climate change, applying a systematic and qualitative analysis of the literature using the bibliometric method. This research observes that climate change tends to affect agricultural productivity, exposing societies to risk and the need for migration. However, good governance, together with international cooperation, can reduce the hazards of food insecurity, strengthening ties between countries and stimulating a fairer and more inclusive form of international trade.     

Urban Regeneration Policy from the Integrated Urban Development Model in the European Union: an Analytical Approach Based on the Study of Spanish Cities

For several years, local governments have been tackling new challenges related to the regeneration of their cities within the physical sphere, as well as in their economic and social aspects. This task is developed in accordance with what has been called the Integrated Urban Development Model, understanding the integrated nature of this approach not only in terms of the spheres of public policy involved, but also in relation to their management. In this paper, this management is analysed in terms of the development of mechanisms for New Local Governance and New Public Management (NPM). Using Spanish municipalities as a case study, this paper develops an analytical tool for the analysis of this model of urban intervention within the European context, paying close attention to the development of mechanisms for New Local Governance from a multilevel perspective, as well as the development of mechanisms for NPM.     

The emergence of regulatory regionalism: transnational networks and the diffusion of regulatory agencies within regions

The regulatory regionalism approach has increasingly claimed that a new mode of regional governance is emerging globally. Regional policy regimes, developed in broad social and economic territorial areas, affect the internal transformation of the state. The authors plan to provide comprehensive empirical evidence about the emergence of worldwide regulatory regionalism by identifying how regulatory agencies have diffused very successfully within the regional level in recent decades. The paper aims to identify, using an original methodological design, the ways in which such diffusion of agencies occurred, as this may have theoretical relevance for the study of regulatory regionalism. The authors' hypothesis suggests that transnational political interactions in each regional cluster triggered agency diffusion, contributing to the development of the regulatory state within the countries of each region. To test this hypothesis, the authors employed a data set of regulatory agencies including the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), and most Asian and Latin American countries (+59) from 1950 to 2007, for 15 sectors related to finance, risks, utility and competition. Bayesian data analysis was used to estimate the parameters of interest.     

Volatile Organic Compounds,Spectral Characterization and Morphology of Ammonium Nitrate Fuel Oil (ANFO) Samples

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil is an explosive mixture found in most antipersonnel landmines (APL) buried throughout the Colombian territory. During more than 50 years of internal conflict, the Colombian government has found that trained dogs are the most effective method to detect APL. However, the olfactive signature in ANFO is unknown and also if there are differences in detection related to the explosive manufacturing origin. Therefore, this work begins with the analytical validation of the method used to determine ammonia, in its derivatized form as carbamate, released by home-made ANFO using HS-SPME-GC-FID. Once validated, the method was used to identify ammonia and other organic volatile compounds present in ANFO, under laboratory and simulated field conditions. The validation process includes the evaluation of the optimum conditions for the derivation and extraction of butylcarbamate, the determination of the working ranges with linear response in FID, the limits of detection and quantification, the sensitivity, and the precision. The results of the validation established linearity and sensitivity in a concentration between 20 and 120 mg/L, as well as low limits of detection and quantification of 6.4 and 21.4 mg/L, respectively. Also, an intermediate precision of 11% for butylcarbamate with a repeatability of 8%. The validated method showed in real samples of home-made ANFO besides ammonia, the presence of low molecular methylamines, and also exhibited differences in volatile compositions according to the origin. The objective of this work is to offer a reliable analytical methodology for the extraction and analysis of volatile compounds from ANFO.     

The contribution of the right to information laws in Europe to local government transparency on sustainability

The aim of this paper is to examine the influence of the right to information laws on sustainability transparency in European local governments. This goal is novel, in that previous studies have examined the effects of various factors on the dissemination of government information (demographic, socioeconomic, political and financial) but not the contribution of legal factors to online transparency on environmental, social and economic sustainability. Our research question is this: Do information laws contribute to transparency on sustainability? Using the Global Reporting Initiative guidelines and a statistical regression analysis, we studied the websites of 106 local governments in ten European countries. The results obtained show that when transparency laws clearly stipulate the rules applicable and the procedures established for appeals, exceptions, refusals and requests, this can favour transparency on environmental, social and economic sustainability. Our findings advance understanding of this field and reinforce the basis for legal reforms to enhance sustainability transparency.

     

Adolescents’ Self-Perception of Morality,Competence, and Sociability and their Interplay with Quality of Family,Friend, and School Relationships: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study

Morality, competence, and sociability have been conceptualized as fundamental dimensions on which individuals ground their evaluation of themselves and of other people and groups. In this study, we examined the interplay between self-perceived morality, competence, and sociability and relationship quality within the core social contexts with which adolescents have extensive daily interactions (family, friends, and school). Participants were 916 (51.4% girls; M_age?=?15.64 years) adolescents involved in a three-wave longitudinal study with annual assessments. The results of cross-lagged analyses indicated that (a) self-perceived morality was more important than self-perceived competence and sociability in strengthening family, friend, and school relationships; and (b) high-quality friendships led to increasing levels of self-perceived morality over time. Overall, this evidence advances our theoretical understanding of the primacy of morality from a self-perspective approach and highlights the developmental importance of friends.     

Enacting motherhood: time and social change in Chile

Motherhood is changing. An increasing number of women are deciding to remain childless, having fewer children, postponing their transition to motherhood, and simultaneously pursuing careers. These changes are deeply embedded in a reconfiguration of the times of motherhood. Although the intersection of motherhood and time has been widely acknowledged by gender and feminist studies, less attention has been paid to how in the making of motherhood women reproduce, negotiate and subvert time mandates and norms. This article aims to underscore the importance of time and how it relates to the enactment of motherhood in contemporary societies by analysing the planning, timing, sequencing, and simultaneity of the transition to motherhood in Chile. Through the analysis of 15 life story interviews with urban women from Santiago de Chile, this article addresses the intersection between social change, motherhood and time by showing how in the making of the transitions to motherhood women reproduce, negotiate and subvert traditional and emergent cultural mandates and social norms on the times of motherhood.