Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.     

Participation in the Wake of Adversity: Blame Attribution and Policy-Oriented Evaluations

In this paper we investigate to what extent perceptions of economic conditions, policy-oriented evaluations, and blame attribution affected Californians’ involvement in political activities in 2010. We use a statistical methodology that allows us to study not only the behavior of the average citizen, but also the behavior of “types” of citizens with latent predispositions that incline them toward participation or abstention. The 2010 election is an excellent case study, because it was a period when citizens were still suffering the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and many were concerned about the state’s budgetary crisis. We find that individuals who blamed one of the parties for the problems with the budget process, and who held a position on the 2010 Affordable Care Act, were often considerably more likely to participate. We also find, however, that the impact of economic evaluations, positions on the health care reform, and blame attributions was contingent on citizens’ latent participation propensities and depended on the class of political activity.     

Dating hot spot to fraud hot spot: Targeting the social characteristics of romance fraud victims in England and Wales

Research Summary

We found that romance fraud was rising year-on-year across every region in England and Wales, increasing 55% during the 3 years between October 2018 and October 2021. Fifty percent of all the romance fraud victims in the period resided in 17% of the places where romance fraud had occurred. A total of 439 locations (outward postcode areas) were identified as the “power few” in the first year of the data set. Of these 439 locations, 162 of them recurred in both of the following years, becoming chronic “hot spot” locations containing more than one in six of all reported romance fraud victims. The demography of victims in repeat locations differed considerably, but hot spots were more frequently predominantly populated by less affluent populations.

Policy Implications

We conclude that the current national one-size-fits-all fraud prevention approach may not be the most efficient or effective way to reach those victims who most require crime prevention advice. The National Fraud Intelligence Bureau, based in the City of London Police, could adopt a tailored approach to providing preventative information to local police forces based on the year-to-year patterns in crime and the associated intelligence provided by sociodemographic data sources such as Acorn.     

National administrative agencies in transition: A comparison of sweden and the united states

The abilities of national administrative agencies in Sweden and the United States to function effectively are influenced by their responses to three major phenomena: 1) growth in the responsibilities of government; 2) decentralization; and, 3) privatization. This paper delineates how these phenomena have affected the development of national administrative organizations in these two countries. Implications for administering national agencies in increasingly complex interorganizational environments are discussed.     

Organizational Trust and the Limits of Management‐Based Regulation

This article examines the relationship between management‐based regulation and occupational health and safety through two case studies. The first describes how corporate occupational health and safety systems and standards were interpreted and implemented differently at different mine sites within the same company and examines the particular role of trust between workers and management in explaining variations in occupational health and safety performance. The second explores the difficulties of moving from a highly devolved system of responsibility to a more centralized approach, and the incapacity of externally mandated management‐based regulation to change behavior at site level in the absence of a supportive workplace culture. The article argues that notwithstanding the heavy emphasis currently being placed on both internal (company‐driven) and external (government‐driven) management‐based regulation, a commitment at corporate level does not necessarily percolate down to individual facilities where ritualistic responses or resistant subcultures may thwart effective change. The findings have important implications for the effectiveness of management‐based regulation and meta‐regulation more broadly.