The governance of global security and development: convergence,divergence and coherence

This paper discusses the gaps in the present international system that in the final analysis threaten the objectives of conflict management. It asks if there is the interest and institutional will within the international community to close such gaps. It poses this challenge from the perspective of coherence. As noted in companion pieces to this study, the concept of coherence has at least four inter-related and complementary dimensions, i.e. internal, whole of government, harmonisation and alignment.     

Engagement processes in model programs for community reentry from prison for people with serious mental illness

Linking prisoners with mental illness with treatment following release is critical to preventing recidivism, but little research exists to inform efforts to engage them effectively. This presentation compares the engagement process in two model programs, each representing an evidence-based practice for mental health which has been adapted to the context of prison reentry. One model, Forensic Assertive Community Treatment (FACT), emphasizes a long-term wrap-around approach that seeks to maximize continuity of care by concentrating all services within one interdisciplinary team; the other, Critical Time Intervention (CTI), is a time-limited intervention that promotes linkages to outside services and bolsters natural support systems. To compare engagement practices, we analyze data from two qualitative studies, each conducted in a newly developed treatment program serving prisoners with mental illness being discharged from prisons to urban communities. Findings show that the working relationship in reentry services exhibits unique features and is furthered in both programs by the use of practitioner strategies of engagement, including tangible assistance, methods of interacting with consumers, and encouragement of service use via third parties such as families and parole officers. Nevertheless, each program exhibited distinct cultures and rituals of reentry that were associated with fundamental differences in philosophy and differences in resources available to each program.     

Macrostructural Opportunity and Violent Crime: The Impact of Social Structure on Inter- and Intra-Racial Violence

Researchers have examined the correlates of inter-group relationships, relying heavily on Blau’s (The American Journal of Sociology, 83, 26–54, 1977) macrostructural opportunity theory. The results of these studies have given mixed support for the relationship between social structure and inter-racial violence. This study builds on existing research on inter-group violence by examining what social structural correlates may influence intra- and inter-group violence using the macrostructural opportunity theory as a guiding framework. Data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System as well as the American Community Survey are utilized to construct a large sample of counties across the United States. The findings provide mixed support for Blau’s hypotheses, with heterogeneity and segregation showing some effects on inter-group violence, while racial inequality remains largely a non-significant predictor.

     

Examining the relationship between religiosity and self-control as predictors of prison deviance

The relationship between religiosity and crime has been the subject of much empirical debate and testing over the past 40 years. Some investigators have argued that observed relationships between religion and crime may be spurious because of self-control, arousal, or social control factors. The present study offers the first investigation of religiosity, self-control, and deviant behavior in the prison context. We use survey data from a sample of 208 recently paroled male inmates to test the impact of religiosity and self-control on prison deviance. The results indicate that two of the three measures of religiosity may be spurious predictors of prison deviance after accounting for self-control. Participation in religious services is the only measure of religiosity to significantly reduce the incidence of prison deviance when controlling for demographic factors, criminal history, and self-control. We conclude with implications for future studies of religiosity, self-control, and deviance in the prison context.     

Jaccard's heel: Radex models of criminal behaviour are rarely falsifiable when derived using Jaccard coefficient

Purpose. This article considers whether the modular facet of popular ‘radex’ models of offender behaviour is falsifiable or a statistical inevitability when using Jaccard coefficient, as evidence from other domains suggests. Method. Data equivalent to that examined in previous papers, and artificial data varying on four parameters, were examined using the conventional procedure of deriving Jaccard coefficients and submitting these to a smallest space analyses (SSA‐I). The parameters were number of variables, number of cases, highest frequency of variable occurrence, and distribution of occurrences. Evidence of a modular pattern in each SSA‐I solution was assessed using one qualitative and two quantitative measures. Results. When variables were free to occur in more than 50% of cases, none of the Jaccard‐based SSA‐I solutions supported the null hypothesis of no modular facet. This contrasts equivalent analyses using Yules Q, where 95.7% of the solutions supported the null hypothesis. When variables were restricted to occur in less than 50% of cases, the number of solutions supporting the null hypothesis changes to .003 and 78%, respectively. Analyses of the artificial data found that reducing the number of variables in a Jaccard‐based solution increased the likelihood of supporting the null hypothesis, which suggests that these solutions are structured by variable occurrence (i.e., frequency) rather than variable co‐occurrence. Implications. Research using Jaccard coefficient to measure co‐occurrences among behaviours should not claim that the modular facet of their radex model is an empirical finding. Unfortunately, this is many of the existing publications.     

Complex mixtures: A critical examination of a paper by Homer et al.

DNA evidence in criminal cases may be challenging to interpret if several individuals have contributed to a DNA-mixture. The genetic markers conventionally used for forensic applications may be insufficient to resolve cases where there is a small fraction of DNA (say less than 10%) from some contributors or where there are several (say more than 4) contributors. Recently methods have been proposed that claim to substantially improve on existing approaches [1]. The basic idea is to use high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping arrays including as many as 500,000 markers or more and explicitly exploit raw allele intensity measures. It is claimed that trace fractions of less than 0.1% can be reliably detected in mixtures with a large number of contributors. Specific forensic issues pertaining to the amount and quality of DNA are not discussed in the paper and will not be addressed here. Rather our paper critically examines the statistical methods and the validity of the conclusions drawn in Homer et al. (2008) [1].We provide a mathematical argument showing that the suggested statistical approach will give misleading results for important cases. For instance, for a two person mixture an individual contributing less than 33% is expected to be declared a non-contributor. The quoted threshold 33% applies when all relative allele frequencies are 0.5. Simulations confirmed the mathematical findings and also provide results for more complex cases. We specified several scenarios for the number of contributors, the mixing proportions and allele frequencies and simulated as many as 500,000 SNPs.A controlled, blinded experiment was performed using the Illumina GoldenGate^® 360 SNP test panel. Twenty-five mixtures were created from 2 to 5 contributors with proportions ranging from 0.01 to 0.99. The findings were consistent with the mathematical result and the simulations.We conclude that it is not possible to reliably infer the presence of minor contributors to mixtures following the approach suggested in Homer et al. (2008) [1]. The basic problem is that the method fails to account for mixing proportions.     

Falling Short of Constitutional Norms: Does “Normative (In)Congruence” Explain the Courts' Inability to Promote the Right to Water in South Africa?

In South Africa, municipal noncompliance with legislation promoting the constitutional right to sufficient water is both a failure of the rule of law and a betrayal of that right. Judicial intervention has prompted formalistic compliance with water law, but the underlying commitment to sufficient water remains unfulfilled. Does the inability of courts to achieve social justice despite enforcing social legislation confirm the thesis that commitments to the rule of law and to social justice are inconsistent, that upholding the rule of law may not advance social justice? This article offers an alternative to this “inconsistency thesis,” arguing that the rule of law can accommodate social justice if it demands normative congruence alongside congruence with formal rules. Empirical investigation reveals that structural challenges and the multifarious normative demands on officials create a condition of normative incongruence that impedes the pursuit of social justice, even as courts compel congruence with formal rules.