Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

This article analyzes how U.S. climate change politics and policy making are changing in the public, private and civil society sectors, and how such changes are likely to influence U.S. federal policies. It outlines the current status of U.S. climate change action and explores four overlapping pathways of policy change: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action. These four pathways seek to fruitfully draw from rationalist and constructivist approaches to policy analysis, without collapsing or confusing the different logics. Building on this analysis, it predicts that future federal U.S. climate policy will include six major components: (1) A national cap on GHG emissions; (2) A national market based cap‐and‐trade GHG emissions trading scheme; (3) Mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) Increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) Increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) Increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development. In addition, expanding federal climate policy may bring about significant changes in U.S. foreign policy as U.S. international re‐engagement on climate change is likely to occur only after the development of more significant federal policy.     

Using Reentry Simulations to Promote Changes in Attitude toward Offenders: Experiential Learning to Promote Successful Reentry

This research examines the viability of using reentry simulations as a tool for influencing changes in participants’ perspectives about the realities of coming back in the community after a period of incarceration. Using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies, we investigated changes in attitudes toward offenders after participants completed a reentry simulation designed to replicate the experience of the first four weeks in the life of a person attempting to reenter society after incarceration. Participants were 27 students enrolled in a community corrections course that was cross listed and co-taught between criminal justice and social work. Participants completed a quantitative pre- and post-test that assessed attitudes toward prisoners as well as a reflection assignment about the simulation experience. Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test was used to analyze scores from pre- and post-tests. Qualitative analysis of the reflection papers identified and analyzed themes. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis indicate that simulations humanize perspectives toward former offenders and develop a better understanding of their situation. This understanding creates empathetic feelings that can reduce discrimination and stigma, thereby creating an environment more conducive to successful reintegration. Based on the results of this study, use of simulation-based training is recommended with audiences including criminal justice personnel, service providers, court practitioners, judges, and legislators as a way to more clearly articulate the realities faced by this vulnerable population.

     

Useful ignorance: The benefits of uncertainty during power shifts

This paper develops a formal model exploring how declining states allocate scarce military resources across multiple commitments under uncertainty. The model reveals that under certain conditions, states might actually benefit from their own uncertainty. In the model, a declining state’s uncertainty creates incentives for a revisionist rising power to misrepresent its intentions. But importantly, this misrepresentation requires the rising state to act cooperatively, implementing policies that immediately benefit the declining state. The model reveals how declining states can exploit these incentives in order to maximize the short-term benefits of their counterpart’s cooperation. Under some conditions, the benefits of this deceptive cooperation can outweigh the long-term costs of being deceived. These dynamics do not operate when the declining state is certain of the rising state’s type. I illustrate this logic through a case study of Great Britain’s pre-WWI naval withdrawal from East Asia.     

The Cross-Dresser,the Thief,His Daughter and Her Lover: Queer Desire and Romance in Georgette Heyer’s These Old Shades

When romance fiction consolidated as a genre in the 1920s and 1930s, a series of generic conventions concerning the heterosexual imperatives came about. This article considers how these heterosexual imperatives function as a mask for queer desire in Georgette Heyer’s These Old Shades (1926). Drawing on the work of Eve Kosofsky Sedgwick, the article identifies in the novel a detailed account of male–male desire through arguing that while the romantic narrative is concerned with the Duc of Avon and Léonie, his former cross-dressing page, the substantial sexual tension in the novel occurs in the meetings and exchanges between Avon and Léonie’s biological father, Henri Saint-Vire. While These Old Shades ends with the presentation of Léonie by Avon as his duchess, it is male–male desire which has (queerly) driven this romance plot to its ‘natural’ conclusion of marriage. The article thinks through what happens when the rivalry, explicitly about desiring a woman, is an implicit homosocial bond and how this functions within the heterosexual imperatives of the romance novel. The article questions how desire functions in the romance novel and, more crucially, how romance fiction can be read as resisting, at least in part, that which has been traditionally understood as their raison d’être—the heterosexual imperative.     

Medicolegal death investigator workplace safety hazards: A scoping review of the literature

In the United States, medicolegal death investigation practices and policies pertaining to sudden unexpected deaths are mandated by state government. Practices vary across states, which contributes to inconsistency in job prerequisites and training. In preparation for a study focused on occupational safety and health of medicolegal death investigators in their on-scene and follow-up activities, a scoping review was conducted to document known occupational safety risks and health-related conditions associated with death investigation. Searches used Boolean and subject heading operators both broad and narrow in scope, and search terms included scene responder, hazard, investigator, forensic pathology, injury, and safety. Twenty-five articles met inclusion criteria, which included seventeen survey-mixed method designs, two systematic reviews, five quasi-experimental designs, and one case study. Twelve articles addressed mental health and eleven focused on risks associated with infectious disease. One article addressed the risk of chemical exposure from cyanide among autopsy personnel (including forensic pathologists) and nine included a wide range of employees within the setting of medical examiner or coroner offices. One article, addressing burnout, included employees in a forensic science laboratory setting as well as medicolegal death investigators and two articles included forensic pathologists and medicolegal death investigators. Only one article addressed medicolegal death investigators specifically. Articles addressing occupational and environmental hazards of medicolegal death investigators associated with musculoskeletal, respiratory, cardiovascular, radiological, nuclear, electrical, or explosive threats were not identified. There is little published about safety risks inherent in conducting death investigations. Research is needed to adequately inform health promotion and injury prevention strategies.     

Adolescent Sexual Debut and Later Delinquency

Does sexual debut (i.e., experiencing sexual intercourse for the first time) increase the risks of participating in later delinquent behavior? Does this risk increase if adolescents experience early sexual debut relative to the timing experienced by one’s peers? Although many factors have been linked to sexual debut, little research has examined whether sexual initiation is linked to later behavioral outcomes. Using data on adolescents participating in three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N=7,297), we examine the interconnections between sexual debut and later delinquency. In addition, we pay particular attention to the role of timing of sexual debut. We find that experiencing sexual debut is associated with delinquency one year later. In addition, those adolescents who experience early sexual debut relative to their peers are at higher risk of experiencing delinquency compared to those who debut on-time; adolescents who experience late sexual debut are the least likely to participate in delinquency. Moreover, the protective effect of late sexual debut appears to persist for several years. Findings are interpreted by drawing on developmental theory and life course research.