Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime

Part of the ongoing debate between Cantor and Land and Greenberg centers on differing opinions about the question of interest in Cantor and Land (1985). We begin this article with our opinion that Cantor and Land's theory relates changes in the business cycle to changes in the aggregate rate of crime. We then question whether year-to-year changes adequately reflect changes in the business cycle, which last on average 4 years, and we refer to an article by Cook and Zarkin (1985) which presents an alternative method of measuring business cycle changes. We also discuss how Greenberg's use of cointegration provides an alternative way of addressing the difficult statistical problem of nonstationarity without resorting to first differences. Our final contribution involves noticing that opportunity and motivational theories of crime can be structurally identified by focusing on different types of crime rather than temporal lags. We demonstrate this idea by splitting car theft into joyriding and theft for profit. We show that joyriding appears to be driven by opportunity, while the causal structure of theft for profit is less clear.     

Can Genetics Predict Response to Complex Behavioral Interventions? Evidence from a Genetic Analysis of the Fast Track Randomized Control Trial

Early interventions are a preferred method for addressing behavioral problems in high‐risk children, but often have only modest effects. Identifying sources of variation in intervention effects can suggest means to improve efficiency. One potential source of such variation is the genome. We conducted a genetic analysis of the Fast Track randomized control trial, a 10‐year‐long intervention to prevent high‐risk kindergarteners from developing adult externalizing problems including substance abuse and antisocial behavior. We tested whether variants of the glucocorticoid receptor gene NR3C1 were associated with differences in response to the Fast Track intervention. We found that in European‐American children, a variant of NR3C1 identified by the single‐nucleotide polymorphism rs10482672 was associated with increased risk for externalizing psychopathology in control group children and decreased risk for externalizing psychopathology in intervention group children. Variation in NR3C1 measured in this study was not associated with differential intervention response in African‐American children. We discuss implications for efforts to prevent externalizing problems in high‐risk children and for public policy in the genomic era.     

Shifts in perceptions of NGOs with the creation of the Palestinian National Authority

This article explores perceived shifts in roles for NGOs and religious actors after the creation of the Palestinian National Authority with the 1993 Oslo Accords, using original data from a survey of more than 1,000 community members in the West Bank and Gaza. The survey data show a centralisation of requests for assistance from the Palestinian National Authority, with a decrease in requests from local government, NGOs, and religious actors after the creation of the Palestinian National Authority. The support the empirical findings lend to theories of government and voluntary failure is discussed.     

Is the Magic Still There? The Use of the Heckman Two-Step Correction for Selection Bias in Criminology

Issues of selection bias pervade criminological research. Despite their ubiquity, considerable confusion surrounds various approaches for addressing sample selection. The most common approach for dealing with selection bias in criminology remains Heckman’s [(1976) Ann Econ Social Measure 5:475–492] two-step correction. This technique has often been misapplied in criminological research. This paper highlights some common problems with its application, including its use with dichotomous dependent variables, difficulties with calculating the hazard rate, misestimated standard error estimates, and collinearity between the correction term and other regressors in the substantive model of interest. We also discuss the fundamental importance of exclusion restrictions, or theoretically determined variables that affect selection but not the substantive problem of interest. Standard statistical software can readily address some of these common errors, but the real problem with selection bias is substantive, not technical. Any correction for selection bias requires that the researcher understand the source and magnitude of the bias. To illustrate this, we apply a diagnostic technique by Stolzenberg and Relles [(1997) Am Sociol Rev 62:494–507] to help develop intuition about selection bias in the context of criminal sentencing research. Our investigation suggests that while Heckman’s two-step correction can be an appropriate technique for addressing this bias, it is not a magic solution to the problem. Thoughtful consideration is therefore needed before employing this common but overused technique.

A Comparison of Law Enforcement Divorce Rates with Those of Other Occupations

It is a common belief that the divorce rate for police officers is higher than that of the general population. This belief is commonly held in spite of the fact that there is no empirical research supporting such a belief. To compare the divorce rate of law enforcement personnel with the rates for other occupations, we analyzed data from the 2000 U.S. Census. The results of this analysis indicate that the divorce rate for law enforcement personnel is lower than that of the general population, even after controlling for demographic and other job-related variables.     

Bullying and fear of victimization: Do supportive adults in school make a difference in adolescents’ perceptions of safety?

This study examines the role played by a limited number of fear-of-crime correlates in structuring variations in fear of violent victimization expressed by a nationally representative sample of U.S. adolescents who participated in the 2013 National Crime Victimization Survey School Crime Supplement. Results show that both male and female adolescents who experienced bullying victimization also felt a higher level of fear of victimization at school and elsewhere. Conversely, adolescents who received emotional support at school from teachers and other adults were significantly less likely to be fearful. When controlling for the selected predictors, female adolescents were not more fearful than their male counterparts. Additionally, findings indicate that, especially for male adolescents, a positive school climate has the capacity to moderate the effect of bullying victimization on one’s fear of crime.     

Using Longitudinal Self-Report Data to Study the Age–Crime Relationship

Objectives

Given the growing reliance on longitudinal self-report data for making causal inferences about crime, it is essential to investigate whether the within-individual change in criminal involvement exists and is not a measurement artifact driven by attrition or survey fatigue—a very real possibility first identified by Lauritsen (Soc Forces 77(1):127–154, 1998) using the National Youth Survey (NYS). The current study examines whether the same threats to the validity of within-individual change in criminal involvement exist in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (NLSY97).

Methods

We first estimate cohort-specific growth curve models of general crime, arrest, and substance use, and then test the difference between the age–crime curves of adjacent cohorts. We take a general approach to test cohort differences in the growth curve models, which advances the existing method separately modeling for each pair of adjacent cohorts. To explore the sources of cohort differences, we also estimate separate growth curve models by individual crime item and by demographic group.

Results

We document non-standard cohort differences between the age–crime curves of adjacent cohort pairs that are consistent with the findings of Lauritsen (1998) on measures of self-reported offending. However, the size of the cohort effects in the NLSY97 is substantially smaller than those in the NYS. We also found that the cohort effects were only evident in some of the survey items. Moreover, we did not identify any similar cohort issues in the longitudinal measure of arrest.

Conclusions

The findings of cohort effects localized in a certain crime items and demographic groups may mitigate concerns over the limited validity of longitudinal self-report data. We discuss how the survey techniques used in the NLSY97 might explain our findings and suggest an area of future study to explicate remaining cohort differences.

     

Criminal Records and Employment: A Survey of Experiences and Attitudes in the United States

Ban-the-Box (BTB) legislation, which bans employers from asking about criminal history records on the initial job application, is arguably the most prominent policy arising from the prisoner reentry movement. BTB policies assume: 1) most employers ask about criminal records, and 2) inquiries occur at the application stage. However, we lack reliable information about the validity of these assumptions or about public attitudes towards criminal background checks, which limits our understanding of the potential scope of this innovative policy. Using survey data from a national probability sample, we estimate that in the past year, over 31 million U.S. adults were asked about a criminal record on a job application. According to our survey, virtually all of the criminal record inquiries occurred at the application stage, highlighting the potential of BTB. However, we also found that the public is sharply divided on whether to prevent employers from asking on applications, as per BTB.