Predicting discharge in forensic psychiatry: the legal and psychosocial factors associated with long and short stays in forensic psychiatric hospitals

In Germany, both the number of patients treated in forensic psychiatric hospitals and the average inpatient treatment period have been increasing for over thirty years. Biographical and clinical factors, e.g., the number of prior offences, type of offence, and psychiatric diagnosis, count among the factors that influence the treatment duration and the likelihood of discharge. The aims of the current study were threefold: (1) to provide an estimate of the German forensic psychiatric patient population with a low likelihood of discharge, (2) to replicate a set of personal variables that predict a relatively high, as opposed to a low, likelihood of discharge from forensic psychiatric hospitals, and (3) to describe a group of other factors that are likely to add to the existing body of knowledge. Based on a sample of 899 patients, we applied a battery of primarily biographical and other personal variables to two subgroups of patients. The first subgroup of patients had been treated in a forensic psychiatric hospital according to section 63 of the German legal code for at least ten years (long-stay patients, n=137), whereas the second subgroup had been released after a maximum treatment period of four years (short-stay patients, n=67). The resulting logistic regression model had a high goodness of fit, with more than 85% of the patients correctly classified into the groups. In accordance with earlier studies, we found a series of personal variables, including age at first admission and type of offence, to be predictive of a short or long-stay. Other findings, such as the high number of immigrants among the short-stay patients and the significance of a patient's work time before admission to a forensic psychiatric hospital, are more clearly represented than has been observed in previous research.     

Does Matson matter? Assessing the impact of a UK neighbourhood project

The question of how development agencies should assess their impact has no simple answers and so is often either unasked, or is framed in terms that privilege time-bound and quantitative findings. Describing a council estate neighbourhood project in the UK, the author probes the understandings and perceptions of different stakeholders concerning what they believe has changed over the life of the project, and to what they would attribute those changes. The findings suggest that the impact of development interventions is always contingent upon many factors and can only be properly viewed over time; and that many of the most critical factors in shaping change are intangible and have to do with a wide range of social relations and with human motivation and drive, both individual and collective. The author does not present a 'blueprint' for how to conduct impact assessment, but offers some insights into how to frame the questions and interpret the answers.     

Acknowledging the Other Side in Negotiation

In a negotiation study, we investigated the efficacy of acknowledging an opponent's role in securing a concession made to that opponent. The study featured a face-to-face, one-shot bargaining session between a student favoring marijuana legalization and a confederate playing the role of a legalization opponent. When the confederate acknowledged the student's putative influence in producing a concession by the confederate, the student perceived the magnitude of the concession to be greater and was more likely to accept it. The student negotiators also reported that they liked the other party more following acknowledgement, and our mediational analysis suggested that enhanced interpersonal sentiments played a role in facilitating agreement. In this article, in addition to documenting these findings, we also discuss their implications, both for theoretical analyses of conflict and negotiation and for the practical problem of settling disputes.     

Single primer extension (SPEX) amplification to accurately genotype highly damaged DNA templates

High levels of non-authentic sequence data can be generated by traditional PCR-based methodologies when DNA is damaged, template numbers are small and/or the target amplification size too large. We therefore present an alternate methodology based on single primer extension (SPEX) amplification; that places no pre-defined size constraints on amplification and interacts with only one of the DNA strands at the target locus.     

The Standard of Review Strikes Back: the US-Korea Drams Appeal

This article contains a brief analysis of how the WTO AppellateBody identified and applied a standard of review in the recentUS–Korea DRAMS Appeal and its implications for this aspectof WTO jurisprudence in the future. Section I discusses theformulation of the objective assessment test and its developmentthrough subsequent cases. Section II sets out the backgroundto the US–Korea DRAMS decision and summarizes the reasoningof the Appellate Body in determining that the panel had notcomplied with its obligations under Article 11 of the DisputeSettlement Understanding. Section III discusses the implicationsof this decision for panels and parties. It is suggested thatthis decision evidences the significant development of the standardof review under the WTO dispute-settlement system. However,it is suggested that the standard is becoming more complex innature, and it may be increasingly difficult for panels to complywith Article 11 without a clear restatement of applicable principlesby the Appellate Body.