Predictors of success and failure on intensive probation supervision

Using official data collected from probation records, this article identifies predictors of success and failure in the Super Intensive Probation Program in Harris County (Houston), Texas. The records of 307 participants were analyzed using logistic regression analysis. The attempt was to identify predictors of committing technical violations and new crimes. These two categories were combined to identify predictors of success/failure in general. The strongest predictors of failure were unemployment and number of prior misdemeanor convictions. The performances of SIPP participants was compared with that of a sample of regular probationers. Though the failure rates of the two programs was comparable, none of the variables which correlated with success/failure in SIPP were significantly associated with performance on regular probation. Theoretical and policy-related implications of the findings are discussed.     

Region, Local Context, and Voting at the 1997 General Election in England

There has been considerable debate in recent work on voting patterns in Great Britain regarding the importance of regional effects: are these “real” or are they simply statistical artifacts of decision‐making processes at smaller spatial scales which are aggregated up to the regional scale if not incorporated directly into any modeling? Using a multilevel model design, this article reports on analyses of survey data for the 1997 general election in England which allows tests of whether regional variations are no more than aggregation effects. Individual voters are nested within households, neighborhoods, constituencies, and regions and when all of the smaller‐scale spatial levels are included in the model, the observed regional effects are statistically insignificant. At the 1997 general election, at least, regional variations within England in support for the three main parties—basically, a north‐south divide—are aggregation effects.     

The Consummate Comparative Public Administrationist: A Tribute to Ferrel Heady, 1916–2006

Ferrel Heady died on August 16, 2006, at his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Together with Fred Riggs, he is widely known and respected as one of the founders of comparative public administration. In this tribute to our friend and colleague, we touch on the highlights of his distinguished career as a scholar, an academic administrator, and a person who lived up to his own high standards of honesty and integrity in every aspect of his life. We assess his body of work, attempt to summarize its significance, and reproduce comments about him sent to us by his friends and colleagues. This tribute is accompanied by reflections on Ferrel written by Fred Riggs.     

Sampling People or People in Places? The BES as an Election Study

Electoral surveys conducted as part of the regular series of British Election Studies have used a stratified, clustered sampling design. This is constructed to ensure a nationally representative sample of voters (after weighting) but does not necessarily ensure a representative sample of the different social areas within the country. Much recent work has indicated the important role of local social and electoral milieux in the structuring of electoral behaviour but these are not reflected in the sampling design. An analysis of the geography of the face-to-face pre-election component of the 2005 BES shows not only that it was unrepresentative of certain types of area (defined using bespoke neighbourhood data) but also that it was less representative of such areas than the two (larger) internet samples (pre- and post-election) also undertaken as part of the 2005 BES. This suggests the need to reconsider the nature of the sample designs (even the entire survey methodology) to be deployed at future election studies in Great Britain.     

From government to governance: External influences on business risk management

The influence of external organizations and pressures on business risk management practices has hitherto been examined through the influence of state regulatory regimes on businesses. This article concentrates on key socio‐legal concerns about the influence of the law in social and economic life. We know that the sources of regulation and risk management are diversifying beyond the state. What we do not have is much empirically informed research about the range of sources influencing the business world and in particular the weighting of influence exercised by them. In this paper we explore the understandings regulatory actors have of the different external pressures on business risk management through an empirical study of the understandings of those in the food retail sector about the management of food safety and food hygiene risks. A broader objective is to throw some further light onto the debate about regulation within and beyond the state.     

If not a clash, then what? Huntington, Nishida Kitaro and the politics of civilizations

The debate surrounding Samuel Huntington's influential Clashof Civilizations thesis has been focused too narrowly on theaccuracy of his categorization of civilizations. This focushas left the problem of the alleged inter-civilizational orderincompletely theorized. In particular, two theoretical issueshave been overlooked: first, can we really assume that civilizationsare capable of and prone to clashing as if they were statesand, second, surely a theory of global civilizations must besubject to itself, as a product of one such civilization. Thispaper explores the model of the inter-civilizational order theorizedoutside the ‘West’, by Nishida Kitarô in interwarJapan. A comparison with Huntington's vision demonstrates someradical differences in these models and their consequences forthe role of Japan in the so-called ‘new world order’of the 21st century. The conclusion suggests a need to theorizeinter-civilizational relations as seriously as inter-nationalrelations, but on different philosophical foundations, sincethe two describe qualitatively different aspects of coincidentworld orders. In particular, this paper calls attention to thespecial practical importance of non-Western traditions of politicalthought in an inter-civilizational world.