Authoritarian Co-optation in the Age of Globalisation: Evidence from Hong Kong

The existing literature on authoritarian survival, implicitly or explicitly, assumes that political challenges faced by authoritarian regimes are all domestic. I argue that globalisation exposes authoritarian regimes to new sources of threat. In particular, capital mobility forces authoritarian regimes to deal with not only those who dare to voice out dissatisfaction, but also those who exit. While repression may be the best strategy to silence the vocal, co-optation would be a more effective tool to retain the runaway. It is, however, often impossible to co-opt all the capital owners. As such, authoritarian regimes have to be selective when choosing co-optation targets. I argue that authoritarian regimes would co-opt renowned firms because these firms yield the greatest demonstration effect. Hong Kong provides an interesting case to illustrate my arguments. Beijing strategically co-opted the stakeholders of renowned firms in Hong Kong in order to solve the city's pervasive confidence crisis prior to 1997. I test my arguments with data on firms listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. I find that firms owned by well-known and prestigious elite families were more likely to build political connections with Beijing. To test the causal linkage more rigorously, I use both the genetic matching and instrumental variable approaches. The empirical results provide strong support to my arguments.     

Is In-Prison Treatment Enough? A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prison-Based Treatment and Aftercare Services for Substance-Abusing Offenders

This study performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the Amity in-prison Therapeutic Community (TC) and Vista aftercare programs for criminal offenders in California. For the average treatment participant, the cost of treatment was $4,112, which led to approximately fifty-one fewer days incarcerated (36% less) than the average individual in the control group. This implies that, for the average offender, treatment reduced recidivism at a cost of $80 per incarceration day. For participants who received both in-prison treatment and aftercare services, an additional day of incarceration was avoided at a cost of $51 per day relative to those that received in-prison treatment only.     

The role of intelligence in deciding the Battle of Britain

The contemporary political climate is virtually demanding significant intelligence reforms based on what are seen as poor performances in recent crises. Many of these demands will ask for new agencies, more money, and more personnel. Such actions could well worsen the US intelligence process rather than strengthen it. However, now is a propitious time to make certain internal reforms and to find a way for the Intelligence Community to be truly integrated.     

Behavioral Cues to Deception vs. Topic Incriminating Potential in Criminal Confessions

Coding statements of criminal suspects facilitated tests of four hypotheses about differences between behavioral cues to deception and the incriminating potential (IP) of the topic. Information from criminal investigations corroborated the veracity of 337 brief utterances from 28 videotaped confessions. A four-point rating of topic IP measured the degree of potential threat per utterance. Cues discriminating true vs. false comprised word/phrase repeats, speech disfluency spikes, nonverbal overdone, and protracted headshaking. Non-lexical sounds discriminated true vs. false inthe reverse direction. Cues that distinguished IP only comprised speech speed, gesticulation amount, nonverbal animation level, soft weak vocal and “I (or we) just” qualifier. Adding “I don't know” to an answer discriminated both IP and true vs. false. The results supported hypothesis about differentiating deception cues from incriminating potential cues in high-stakes interviews, and suggested that extensive research on distinctions between stress-related cues and cues to deception would improve deception detection.     

Negative Life Events and Depressive Symptoms in Late Adolescence: Bonding and Cognitive Coping as Vulnerability Factors?

The objective of the present study was to examine the effects of parental bonding and cognitive coping in the relationship between negative life events and depressive symptoms in adolescence. A sample of 1310 adolescents attending an intermediate vocational education school filled out a questionnaire. Adolescents with a poor parental bonding relationship seemed to be more vulnerable to depressive symptoms in the face of adverse life events than adolescents with more optimal bonding styles. Cognitive coping strategies seemed to play an even more important role. The use of self-blame, rumination, catastrophizing, positive refocusing, and positive reappraisal appeared to be related to depressive symptoms. In addition, self-blame, rumination, and positive reappraisal seemed to have a moderating role in the relationship between the amount of stress experienced and depressive symptoms. Developing prevention and intervention programs aimed at the formation of optimal bonding relationships and teaching adolescents adaptive cognitive coping strategies seems advisable.