Does corruption suppress voter turnout?*

This paper investigates to what extent voters’ perceptions of political corruption affect turnout. In previous research, two opposing views are put forward with regards to the relationship between corruption and turnout. On the one hand, corruption increases turnout because voters either are bought off to participate or because they are mobilized on clean government issues. On the other hand, corruption decreases turnout because presence of corruption corrodes the political system which leads to general cynicism, distrust and voter apathy. In this paper, we contribute to the existing research by adopting a multi-level approach to the relationship between corruption and turnout. We test the hypothesis that voters’ perceptions of corruption dampens turnout but that the effect is conditional upon the corruption context. We test our hypothesis by combining individual-level data and country-level data from 26 countries from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and country-level data from the Quality of Government Data Set. The findings show that perceiving corruption negatively affects turnout, but only in countries with low to medium levels of system corruption.     

The impact of forced forensic psychiatric confinement on composition and structure in the personal networks of personality-disordered forensic psychiatric patients

This study explored to what extent the composition and structure of personal networks of personality-disordered forensic psychiatric patients changed before and after forced confinement in a forensic psychiatric centre. Semi-structured in-depth interviews with 36 patients and selected members of their networks were examined. During forensic psychiatric treatment, patients reported a decrease in network size, in the number of high-risk network members, and in the number of social ties between these high-risk network members. Personal relationships were of shorter duration, with lower levels of contact frequency and reciprocity. No changes were observed in the patients’ companionship, practical and emotional support networks. During forensic psychiatric treatment, patients reported some new relationships, especially with persons outside the forensic psychiatric centre. Information on compositional and structural personal network factors over time helps forensic mental health professionals to properly assess and manage the important dynamic social network conditions associated with recidivism.     

Routes and determinants of leaving home: the city of Gothenburg, 1915–1943

This paper deals with the home-leaving of young adults in Gothenburg, Sweden, in the period 1915–1943. We used individual-level panel data from population registers and poll-tax records, taking a competing risk design for the analysis of the determinants of leaving home to marry, or for non-familial living. We found a transitional, marriage-driven pattern of leaving home that neither fits the old context of life cycle service, nor the alternative modern routes out of the parental home into unmarried householdship. Young adults typically stayed at home until they married, although some moved out to temporary non-familial living first. Non-familial living consisted mainly of lodging in another household, but working outside it, which in a way was a forerunner of the modern pattern, in sharp contrast with the remnant of preindustrial times: the flow from rural areas into Gothenburg of teenage women immigrants to become residential domestic servants. Interestingly, we found that the main determinants of home-leaving in studies of modern-day populations were equally important in the population of Gothenburg in 1915–1943. For both young men and young women, having their own resources (employment, earnings) was positively associated with the likelihood of leaving the parental home. We also found clear gender differences. A higher level of human capital of the father was associated with later home-leaving to marry for sons, and earlier leaving for non-familial living for daughters. Lower levels of household income, or the presence of minor siblings or a widowed parent were push factors for non-familial living for daughters. We found no similar push factors for sons.     

Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU

This paper analyzes the possible effects of a customs union between Ukraine and the European Union. The GTAP multi-country simulation model of Purdue University’s Center for Global Trade Analysis is applied. The welfare measure evaluated is the change in equivalent variation (EV). As all incomes in the model accrue to a representative household, EV fully assesses possible welfare benefits for Ukraine from bilateral tariff elimination on trade with the EU. As the model includes Ukraine in the aggregated “Former Soviet Union” region (FSU), EV is estimated for the FSU and then disaggregated on the industry level proportionally to trade shares. The results of our simulations suggest that Ukraine’s EV is particularly sensitive to the inclusion of the agricultural sector into a customs union. Due to the highly protected nature of this sector within the EU, Ukraine would be better off if agriculture were excluded from liberalization. If this scenario is assumed, Ukraine’s monetary gain would be in the order of $40 million.

金融危机后的俄罗斯

普京治下的经济复苏,改善了俄罗斯的财政状况,提高了人民的生活水平,但没有使俄罗斯经济实现成功转型。全球金融危机暴露了俄罗斯经济状况的本质:普京八年的俄罗斯经济只是"恢复性增长",而非以投资和创新所驱动的可持续性增长,对能源仍然高度依赖。虽然危机之后俄经济有所恢复,但与能源价格上涨密切相关,其现代化进程任重道远。2012年之后的俄罗斯仍然将是一个缺少竞争力且严重依赖能源资源出口的国家。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Society’s</Emphasis> Books of Note

Society’s Books of Note

Society’s Books of Note May/June 2010     

Public Administration in Germany: Problems and Potential of a Fragmented Community

What is the discipline of Public Administration (PA) ultimately for? The German community has recently entered new deliberations on this recurrent question, with several papers and workshops addressing the present and future of their national discipline. This article uses original survey data to introduce the views of the German community at large and analyzes intellectual commonalities against a background of institutional fragmentation. It scrutinizes preferences for epistemological positions, research aims, and publication strategies, while also investigating potentials for cooperation through interdisciplinary exchange and theoretical or thematic concordance. The results show a community in intellectual crisis. Faced with fears of decreasing reputation and influence, German PA is still divided about its purpose and separated by disciplinary borders.     

Cognitive dissonance and the effects of Voting Advice Applications on voting behaviour: evidence from the European Elections 2014

ABSTRACT

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) – also known as Voting Engagement Applications – are online tools which inform users about their proximity to party positions before elections by indicating which parties are closest to the policy preferences of the individual voters. Referring to the theory of cognitive dissonance, this article examines the impact of using a VAA on voting behaviour by looking at the effect mechanisms. For the empirical analyses, we draw on data of a two-wave panel study we conducted before the European Elections 2014, thereby focusing on the German VAA – the Wahl-O-Mat. The findings show that irritation emerges if the preferred party is not positioned at the top of the VAA result list. In turn, a strong irritation can lead to a change in vote choice.     

Campaigns and the Selection of Policy-Seeking Representatives

Can voters learn meaningful information about candidates from their electoral campaigns? As with job market hiring, voters, like employers, cannot know the productivity of candidates, especially challengers, when they elect them. The real productivity of representatives only reveals itself after the election. We explore if the information revealed during the “hiring process” is a good signal of the legislative effort of elected representatives. In the incomplete information environment of election campaigns, candidates should turn to credible signals to indicate their “type” to voters. Campaigns—and campaigning—are means by which candidates can, in principle, signal their motivations to voters. Is a candidate’s behavior on the campaign trail informative about his or her behavior and effort as a legislator? Does it, for example, reveal whether a candidate will be more hard working and legislatively active? Using evidence from the European Parliament, we show that campaign activity prior to the election is not related to policy-seeking behavior in the legislature post-election. The finding also holds in two national-level settings and across a variety of measures of legislative effort. Those who campaign harder do seem more likely to win the election, but campaign effort seems to provide a poor guide to what the winner does once elected.     

The economic effects of constitutions: replicating—and extending—Persson and Tabellini

Persson and Tabellini (The Economic Effects of Constitutions, The MIT Press, Cambridge, 2003) show that presidential regimes and majoritarian election systems have important economic effects. Here, the number of countries is expanded and more recent data is used. In replicating and extending their analyses, we find that the effect of presidential regimes vanishes almost entirely. With regard to electoral systems, the original results are largely confirmed: majoritarian (as opposed to proportional) electoral systems lead to lower government expenditure, lower levels of rent seeking but also lower output per worker. The institutional details, such as the proportion of candidates that are not elected on party lists and district size, are particularly important.