German Voters in Times of Crisis: The Impact of Perceptions and Economic Context on Electoral Behaviour

This paper analyses the connection between economic context, voters’ individual assessment of the economy, and party identification, taking the German national elections of 2009 as an example. Based on the results of multinomial and multilevel regression models, the article shows that partisanship moderates how the economy affects the vote. In cases of increasing unemployment in the constituency, voters are less likely to vote for the Social Democrats instead of the CDU and the opposition. This effect is particularly strong amongst voters who report that they identify with the Social Democrats. Regarding the effect of voters’ assessment of the national economy, the results are different. In this case, a better evaluation of the regional economy increases the probability to vote for right-wing parties – notably amongst voters without partisanship. These findings suggest that the moderating effect of partisanship on the economy’s impact on voting behaviour should not be overestimated. What is more, this analysis implies that research on economic voting should always account for both contextual factors and voters’ personal assessment of the economy, as these measures reveal different dimensions of economic voting.     

‘Their life in your hands’: the experiences of prison-based psychologists conducting risk assessments with indeterminate sentenced prisoners in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

Assessing prisoners’ risk of recidivism and making risk-management recommendations is central to the work of prison-based psychologists. Risk assessment is particularly crucial when it involves indeterminate sentenced prisoners: psychologists’ recommendations have potentially significant consequences both for prisoners and the public. However, little is known about psychologists’ experiences of conducting such high stakes risk assessments. This paper reports the results of an exploration of psychologists’ experiences, via interviews and discussions with qualified, prison-based psychologists. Analysis using Grounded Theory methods identified one super-ordinate category of meaning, namely The Challenging Context of Risk Assessment, which comprised two sub-categories: (1) pressure of limited resources and (2) pressure of the environment. An additional major category, Risk Assessment as a Weighty Task, comprised three sub-categories: psychologists described (1) a weight of responsibility relating to the magnitude and range of their responsibilities; (2) a weight of expectation from colleagues to provide solutions, and (3) the trainee dilemma associated with the need to balance development of trainee psychologists’ competence in risk assessment with being held accountable for their work. Understanding qualified psychologists’ experiences of undertaking risk assessments with indeterminate sentenced prisoners can facilitate improvements and build on areas of existing good practice.     

The Green Olympic Movement: Beijing 20081

The paper investigates the capacity of the 2008 Olympiad inBeijing to catalyse sustainable development reforms. The essenceof green Games is examined and the aptitude of Beijing's ambitiousOlympic Action Plan evaluated to provide solutions to key environmentalproblems. It concludes by outlining improvements and givingrecommendations for long-term sustainable development whichpreserve the legacy of green Olympic Games.     

The Influence of Jurisprudential Considerations on Supreme Court Decisionmaking: A Study of Conflict Cases

In this study, we assess the impact of attitudinal and jurisprudential factors on the Supreme Court's resolution of intercircuit conflicts. In doing so, we depart from earlier efforts to assess the impact of legal factors that conceptualize law as an external constraint. Instead, we view jurisprudential considerations in terms of the justices' efforts to adopt the most legally persuasive position in light of accepted methods of legal reasoning. Our analyses reveal that the justices are (1) more likely to follow the reasoning process adopted by the majority of circuits involved in the conflict, (2) less likely to adopt the conflict position marred by contrary dissents and concurrences in the circuit court opinions, and (3) more likely to adopt the conflict position endorsed by prestigious circuit court judges. Our findings suggest that jurisprudential considerations, as well as attitudinal concerns, affect the justices' decisionmaking processes in a substantial minority of cases.     

Adsorption saturation and chromatographic distortion effects on passive headspace sampling with activated charcoal in fire debris analysis

Distortion of the chromatographic profile obtained for hydrocarbons that have been sampled by adsorption onto activated charcoal is a well-known phenomenon. The work reported here helps to better define the causes of chromatographic profile distortion and offers a potential method to avoid chromatographic distortion in some cases through a subsampling technique. The recovery of hydrocarbons from an equimolar mixture was investigated to determine the influence of hydrocarbon concentration on the molar ratios of recovered components. In a one-quart container, hydrocarbon volumes as small as 24 microL (liquid) were sufficient to saturate the surface area available for adsorption on a 99.0 mm2 square of activated charcoal, resulting in significant distortions in the molar ratio and the chromatographic profile of the recovered hydrocarbons. Passive headspace sampling of a similarly small volume of unweathered gasoline spiked onto carpet padding resulted in a significant distortion of the chromatographic profile. The chromatographic profile of the recovered hydrocarbons closely resembled 75% weathered gasoline. Heating the container spiked with unweathered gasoline to evenly distribute the components and then removing a subsample of the carpet padding to a second container for passive headspace analysis greatly reduced the amount of distortion in the resulting chromatogram.     

Testing the Causal Mediation Component of Dodge's Social Information Processing Model of Social Competence and Depression

In Dodge's model of “social information processing” depression is the result of a linear sequence of five stages of information processing (Annu Rev Psychol 44: 559–584, 1993). These stages follow a person's reaction to situational stimuli, such that each stage of information processing mediates the relationship between earlier and later stages. Because support for the social information processing model of depression has mainly come from retrospective examination of the literature (Annu Rev Psychol 44: 559–584, 1993), we conducted a three wave prospective study including 92 adolescents without lifetime or current depression. Depressive symptoms and information processing were assessed by using well established measures employed in previous studies. The social information processing model was supported by cross-sectional results of our study. Based on prospective data we could only partially support the mediation hypotheses of the model. We discuss our unexpected results in light of limitation, including applied measures and sample characteristics.

Exploring,Maintaining, and Disengaging—The Three Phases of a Legislator's Life

Building on the understanding that a career is a dynamic concept, this article applies the idea that parliamentarians' legislative activities vary according to their career stage and age. This is partly a function of experience and partly a function of future career prospects. Using a new data set of the German Bundestag (2002–13) that pinpoints the age and career stage of MPs at the time of individual activities, namely, attending votes, posing parliamentary questions, and holding rapporteurships, we identify practical and normative challenges to MPs' legislative work: It takes time to learn the trade and as the desire for re‐election dissipates, a last‐period problem arises. MPs significantly reduce their activity levels toward the end of their legislative careers, indicating a clear loss of accountability toward their parties and their constituents.