Transfer payments,mothers' income and child health in ecuador

We evaluate the impact of the Bono Solidario, a transfer payment scheme in Ecuador, on children's nutritional status. In addition to testing for pure income effects, because the programme transferred money to mothers of young children, we test whether mother's income has a stronger effect on children's heights and weights than ordinary household income. We draw two main conclusions: that the Bono Solidario transfer payment scheme has had a statistically significant but quite modest impact on children's nutritional status, and that this impact is no different than any other income effect on height and weight. In particular, the fact that the Bono is transferred to mothers has not made it more efficacious at reducing malnutrition than other household income.     

The Travails of Balance of Power Theory: The United States in the Middle East

Balance of power is a ubiquitous concept in theory and practice, but it is rarely tested. This study tests balance of power and balance of threat theories in the case of U.S. intervention in the Persian Gulf. Propositions are derived from the theories and from a conceptualization that treats external states as facing potentially competing and contradictory pressures to balance at the global and regional levels as well as against power and threat. Evidence strongly disconfirms balance of power theory, while balance of threat theory is partly confirmed. Conditions are identified that make balance of threat theory more robust against the historical period explored and possibly in other cases.     

The problems of ‘pro‐state’ terrorism: Loyalist paramilitaries in Northern Ireland

The essay briefly outlines the careers of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Ulster Defence Association (UDA), the two largest Protestant, unionist and loyalist paramilitary organizations in Northern Ireland. It argues that a range of apparently unconnected characteristics of the UDA and UVF can be explained by reference to the notion of ‘pro‐state terrorism’. When the state is perceived to be unable or unwilling to defend itself against its enemies, there is space for ‘prostate’ private initiatives in violence. If the state is not seen to be terminally weak or treacherous, the ‘pro‐state’ group is competing with the state itself. That competition explains many features of the history of the UDA and UVF.     

TURF WAR AND PEACE: LOYALIST PARAMILITARIES SINCE 1994

This article uses the pattern of Loyalist violence since the cease fires of 1994 as the starting point for observations about the current roles of paramilitary organizations, the criminal economy and the power of megalomania.     

Migration,Internal Security and the UK's EU Membership

A key part of the debate about the UK's membership of the EU is concern about levels of migration and the impact upon security. This paper assesses how much impact EU membership has on each of these issues, and examines the likely impact of leaving the EU in each of these areas.