Duverger's Hypothesis, the Run-Off Rule, and Electoral Competition

I analyze a model of electoral competition with entry underthe run-off rule. I consider both two- and multiple-party systems.The principal result is that two-party systems may prove stableunder the run-off rule: I show that a continuum of equilibriaexists in which only two parties enter and subsequent entryis deterred. This finding conflicts with the accepted wisdomon the run-off rule encapsulated by Duverger's Hypothesis. Theresults of the model are then reconciled with Duverger's Hypothesisand a more precise formulation is proposed.     

Alcohol abuse prevention among high-risk youth: computer-based intervention

SUMMARYThis study examined the feasibility of a CD-ROM intervention to prevent alcohol abuse among high-risk youths. Youths from 41 community-based agencies in greater New York City participated in a randomized trial of a skills-based interactive CD-ROM. Outcome data were collected on 489 early adolescents in these agencies before and after a randomized subset of youths interacted with a 10-session alcohol abuse prevention program on CD-ROM. Compared to control participants, youths in the intervention arm had a positive increase in perceived harm of alcohol use and increased assertiveness skills. At posttest, drinking rates for control and intervention participants were equal and unchanged from pretest. These findings suggest that CD-ROM technology offers a new and promising medium for engaging high-risk youth in an alcohol abuse prevention program. Study implications and future applications of the present approach are discussed.     

The effectiveness of interactive journaling in reducing recidivism among substance-dependent jail inmates

The present study sought to evaluate the influence of interactive journaling on criminal recidivism and identify significant predictors of recidivism among a sample of 183 male inmates incarcerated in a local jail facility randomly assigned to either an interactive journaling condition or a control group. All participants met DSM-IV-TR criteria for substance dependence, had their current offense indicate substance involvement, and had a minimum of one previous arrest in the prior 12 months. The recidivism rate (51%), in terms of subsequent bookings within a 12-month period, for the journaling group was significantly lower than the recidivism rate (66%) for the control group, χ(2)(1, 183) = 4.13, p < .05. The three most significant independent predictors of subsequent bookings were severity of posttraumatic stress disorder, group assignment (journaling vs. placebo), and employment status. Interactive journaling appears to show promise as a brief treatment intervention strategy for substance dependence in local jail settings and may have the potential for reducing recidivism.     

The concentration of criminal victimization and patterns of routine activities

Although many repeat victimization studies have focused on describing the prevalence of the phenomenon, this study attempted to explain variations in the concentration of victimization by applying routine activities as a theoretical model. A multivariate analysis of repeat victimization based on the 2005 Taiwan criminal victimization data supported the general applicability of the routine activity model developed in Western culture for predicting repeat victimization. Findings that diverged from Western patterns included family income to assault, gender to robbery, and marital status, family income, and major activity to larceny incidents. These disparities illustrated the importance of considering the broader sociocultural context in the association between risk predictors and the concentration of criminal victimization. The contradictory results and nonsignificant variance also reflected untapped information on respondents' biological features and psychological tendencies. Future victimization research would do well to integrate measurements that are sensitive to salient sociocultural elements of the society being studied and individuals' biological and psychological traits.     

Studying North Korea through North Korean migrants: lessons from the field

This article examines the use of North Korean defectors’ accounts as a source of information for studying the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Information from defectors fills a vital knowledge gap and improves our understanding of North Korean politics, economics, and society. Witness accounts and interview data collected from people who were born in North Korea but have since left have been widely used by journalists, government agencies, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and academics. There are, however, serious methodological issues in collecting, organizing, and interpreting information derived from defectors’ accounts. Selection and demographic biases, power relations between researchers and interviewees, monetary incentives, and language barriers are among those issues. We propose focus group discussions and participatory observation as complementary methods of data collection to mitigate the shortfalls of relying on individual interviews.