China, Nuclear Security and Terrorism: Implications for the United States

This article outlines Chinese strategic nuclear forces and the Chinese philosophical approach to nuclear security. It then focuses on the domestic conditions in China which could precipitate vulnerabilities to its nuclear forces. From information about internal security conditions in China, specific internal threats to Chinese nuclear security will be derived. Based on these threats, several outsider and insider scenarios will be outlined involving a variety of terrorist or terrorist related behaviors. These notional scenarios will include everything from overrun or attack, to diversion, to cyber terrorism, to sabotage. The article will then cover what these scenarios and the possible Chinese reaction to them may mean for the security, military and diplomatic strategies of the United States.     

THE LIMITED ROLE OF CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE IN EXPLAINING AGGREGATE CRIME RATES*

Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution accompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1 % per year. Projected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with recent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such predictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.     

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Current Concepts and Controversies

The diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) sometimes is raised in compensation claims, in tort settings, and in other medical–legal settings. Accordingly, health-care and legal professionals working in these areas need to be familiar with the current findings and controversies concerning the disorder. The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we review the most important findings concerning the clinical features, etiology, and treatment of PTSD. Second, we examine six major controversies concerning the disorder that are relevant to psychologists and other medical–legal practitioners: (a) the issue of what qualifies as a traumatic stressor, (b) the question of whether traumatic stress causes brain damage, (c) the validity of the concept of delayed-onset PTSD, (d) the recovered memory controversy, (e) the question of whether PTSD can arise when the person has no memory of the trauma (e.g., due to concussion), and (f) issues concerning PTSD malingering. Throughout this article we offer recommendations for psychological and other medical–legal practice in relation to the evaluation of PTSD claims.     

The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform Crime Reports

Empirical studies that use reported crime data to evaluate policies for reducing crime will understate the true effectiveness of these policies if crime reporting/recording behavior is also affected by the policies. For instance, when the size of the police force increases, changes in the perceived likelihood that a crime will be solved may lead a higher fraction of victimizations to be reported to the police. In this paper, three data sets are employed to measure the magnitude of this reporting bias. While each of these analyses is subject to individual criticisms, all of the approaches yield similar estimates. Reporting bias appears to be present but relatively small in magnitude: each additional officer is associated with an increase of roughly five Index crimes that previously would have gone unreported. Taking reporting bias into account makes the hiring of additional police substantially more attractive from a cost–benefit perspective but cannot explain the frequent inability of past studies to uncover a systematic negative relationship between the size of the police force and crime rates.     

Correspondence

Negotiation Journal -