Economic voting theory: Testing new dimensions

Classical economic voting theory has received considerable empirical support. Voters reward the incumbent for good times, punish it for bad. But the success of this paradigm, which views the economy as strictly a valence issue, has crowded out testing of other theoretical dimensions. In particular, positional and patrimonial economic voting have hardly been examined. The former concerns the different preferences voters have on economic policy issues, such as progressive taxation. The latter concerns the place of voters in the economic structure itself, not merely as members of a social class but as actual property owners. Through analysis of a special battery of economic items, from a 2008 US presidential election survey, we demonstrate that the economy was important to voters in three ways: valence, position, and patrimony. Taken together, these dimensions go far as an explanation of vote choice, at least with respect to the short-term forces acting on this political behavior.     

Forensic Discrimination of Dyed Hair Color: II. Multivariate Statistical Analysis*,†

Abstract: This research is intended to assess the ability of UV–visible microspectrophotometry to successfully discriminate the color of dyed hair. Fifty‐five red hair dyes were analyzed and evaluated using multivariate statistical techniques including agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC), principal component analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA). The spectra were grouped into three classes, which were visually consistent with different shades of red. A two‐dimensional PCA observations plot was constructed, describing 78.6% of the overall variance. The wavelength regions associated with the absorbance of hair and dye were highly correlated. Principal components were selected to represent 95% of the overall variance for analysis with DA. A classification accuracy of 89% was observed for the comprehensive dye set, while external validation using 20 of the dyes resulted in a prediction accuracy of 75%. Significant color loss from successive washing of hair samples was estimated to occur within 3 weeks of dye application.     

Race/Ethnic-Specific Homicide Rates in New York City: Evaluating the Impact of Broken Windows Policing and Crack Cocaine Markets

The current study evaluated a range of social influences including misdemeanor arrests, drug arrests, cocaine consumption, alcohol consumption, firearm availability, and incarceration that may be associated with changes in gun-related homicides by racial/ethnic group in New York City (NYC) from 1990 to 1999. Using police precincts as the unit of analysis, we used cross-sectional, time series data to examine changes in Black, White, and Hispanic homicides, separately. Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term indicated that an increase in cocaine consumption was associated with an increase in Black homicides. An increase in firearm availability was associated with an increase in Hispanic homicides. Last, there were no significant predictors for White homicides. Support was found for the crack cocaine hypotheses but not for the broken windows hypothesis. Examining racially/ethnically disaggregated data can shed light on group-sensitive mechanisms that may explain changes in homicide over time.     

Mental Health Courts and Their Selection Processes: Modeling Variation for Consistency

Admission into mental health courts is based on a complicated and often variable decision-making process that involves multiple parties representing different expertise and interests. To the extent that eligibility criteria of mental health courts are more suggestive than deterministic, selection bias can be expected. Very little research has focused on the selection processes underpinning problem-solving courts even though such processes may dominate the performance of these interventions. This article describes a qualitative study designed to deconstruct the selection and admission processes of mental health courts. In this article, we describe a multi-stage, complex process for screening and admitting clients into mental health courts. The selection filtering model that is described has three eligibility screening stages: initial, assessment, and evaluation. The results of this study suggest that clients selected by mental health courts are shaped by the formal and informal selection criteria, as well as by the local treatment system.     

Spatializing the Social Networks of Gangs to Explore Patterns of Violence

The majority of spatial studies of crime employ an inductive approach in both the modeling and interpretation of the mechanisms of influence thought to be responsible for the patterning of crime in space and time. In such studies, the spatial weights matrix is specified without regard to the theorized mechanisms of influence between the units of analysis. Recently, a more deductive approach has begun to gain traction in which the theory of influence is used to model influence in geographic space. Using data from Los Angeles, we model the spatial distribution of gang violence by considering both the relative location of the gangs in space while simultaneously capturing their position within an enmity network of gang rivalries. We find that the spatial distribution of gang violence is more strongly associated with the socio-spatial dimensions of gang rivalries than it is with adjacency-based measures of spatial autocorrelation.     

Individual-level risk factors for gun victimization in a sample of probationers

Interventions aimed at preventing the important problem of gun injuries could be improved with an understanding of whether there are unique factors that place individuals at an increased risk of gun victimization. Much remains to be known about the victims of gun violence. The purpose of this article is to assess whether there are individual-level variables uniquely related to the likelihood of experiencing a gun victimization in a sample of probationers, individuals already at a heightened risk for criminal victimization. Self-report data were collected from 235 felony probationers about, for instance, gun and nongun victimization, gang involvement, and drug sales. Results show different variables are related to nongun victimization and gun victimization. In the current sample, involvement in gun crimes are linked to an increased risk of gun victimization. Violent offending and residential stability are associated with an increased chance of crime victimization.     

Demographic, pathologic, and toxicological profiles of 127 decedents testing positive for ephedrine alkaloids

The relative toxicity of ephedra-containing dietary supplements is disputed. In order to ascertain the magnitude of the problem, we reviewed all autopsies in our Medical Examiner's jurisdiction, from 1994 to 2001, where ephedrine or any its isomers (E+) were detected. Toxicology testing results were tabulated and anatomic findings in E+ cases were compared to those in a control group of drug-free trauma victims. Of 127 E+ cases identified, 33 were due to trauma. Decedents were mostly male (80.3%) and mostly Caucasian (59%). Blood ephedrine concentrations were <0.49 mg/l in 50% of the cases, range 0.07-11.73 mg/l in trauma victims, and 0.02-12.35 mg/l in non-trauma cases. Norephedrine (NE) was present in the blood of 22.8% (mean of 1.81 mg/l, S.D.=3.14 mg/l) and in the urine of 36.2% (mean of 15.6 mg/l, S.D.=21.50mg/l). Pseudoephedrine (PE) was present in the blood of 6.3% (8/127). More than 88% (113/127) of the decedents also tested positive for other drugs, the most common being cocaine (or its metabolites) and morphine. The most frequent pathologic diagnoses were hepatic steatosis (27/127) and nephrosclerosis (22/127). Left ventricular hypertrophy was common, and coronary artery disease (CAD) detected in nearly one third of the cases. The most common findings in E+ deaths are those generally associated with chronic stimulant abuse, and abuse of other drugs was common in those with CAD. There were no cases of heat stroke or rhabdomyolysis. In most cases, norephedrine was not detected, suggesting it plays no role in ephedrine toxicity.     

The effects of treatment exposure on prison misconduct for female prisoners with substance use,mental health,and co-occurring disorders

Inmates with mental health and co-occurring mental health and substance use disorders present difficult challenges for correctional institutions and treatment providers. The complex nature of co-occurring disorders further exacerbates these difficulties and is associated with poor treatment compliance and increased likelihood of engaging in institutional misconduct. The current study examines whether exposure to prison-based treatment reduces involvement in prison misconduct among a sample of female prison inmates controlling for disorder types (i.e. mental health disorder only, substance use disorder only, and co-occurring mental and substance use disorders). Findings revealed that with exposure of more than 181?days of treatment, the odds of misconduct involvement among females with co-occurring disorders more than doubled compared to receiving no treatment. This finding is at odds with treatment retention literature that suggests that a minimum period of time in treatment is needed to affect post-treatment success. Possible explanations for these findings and policy implications are discussed.     

War Makes the State,but Not as It Pleases: Homeland Security and American Anti-Statism

The shock of war is thought to be closely associated with the growth of the state, in the United States and elsewhere. Yet each proposal to significantly expand state power in the United States since September 11 has been resisted, restrained, or even rejected outright. This outcome—theoretically unexpected and contrary to conventional wisdom—is the result of enduring aspects of America's domestic political structure: the separation of powers at the federal level between three co-equal and overlapping branches, the relative ease with which interest groups access the policy-making process, and the intensity with which executive-branch bureaucracies guard their organizational turf. These persistent aspects of u.s. political life, designed by the nation's founders to impede the concentration of state power, have substantially shaped the means by which contemporary guardians of the American state pursue “homeland security.” War does make the state, but not as it pleases. Theoretical approaches to state building should recognize that domestic political institutions mediate between the international shock of war and domestic state building.