Cutback budgeting: The long-term consequences

This study asks whether short-term cutbacks made during a fiscal crisis become permanent once fiscal conditions improve. Hypotheses are developed to establish a framework for analyzing a time-series data set. These hypotheses address trade-offs between less essential versus more essential services, salaries versus positions, and capital versus operating expenditures. Then long-term consequences are assessed with a longitudinal, comparative case study of the effects of New York City's mid-1970s fiscal crisis on education services in the city. Education services were cut dramatically in 1976 and 1977. The trends in those services, defined in various ways, are compared over time and in relationship to the rest of New York State. We find that less essential services, teacher positions, and capital and maintenance expenditures suffered, relative to more essential services, operating expenditures, and teacher salaries.     

Judicial Selection: Politics,Biases, and Constituency Demands

The determinants of recent U.S. districtcourt judges and appellate court judgesselection have been subject of much debate,but little systematic evidence has beenpresented to substantiate claims regardingdiscrimination against particular groups ofjudicial nominees, nor regarding the lengthof the appointment process. We study boththe length of the nominations process, andthe likelihood of confirmation andemphasize the role of Senatorial seniorityand agenda control in the confirmationsprocess. We find that Senators with agendacontrol have a positive effect on the speedand likelihood of confirmation and thatnominees from states with comparativelysenior Senators receive expedited treatmentrelative to other nominees. Althoughpolitics matter in the confirmationprocess, Senators are responsive to aperceived ``shortage'' of judges, since theyfill seats faster when a relatively largenumber of court seats are vacant. Nomineeswith higher personal qualifications arealso more likely to experience success inconfirmations. We found no evidence ofgender or race discrimination on the partof the Senate.     

Better than Raw: A Guide to Measuring Organizational Performance with Adjusted Performance Measures

Like oysters on the half shell, some things are better when they're raw. In evaluating the performance of organizations and providing guidance for improving performance, however, raw performance measures, such as test scores or success rates, are often inferior to performance measures adjusted for client and environmental characteristics, or adjusted performance measures (APMs). Using examples from a variety of public services and data on public schools in Georgia, we compare the performance data generated by raw scores and by APMs. We conclude with guidance for constructing and using adjusted performance measures.     

THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDITY OF THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN: A META‐ANALYSIS OF 15 WITHIN‐STUDY COMPARISONS

Theory predicts that regression discontinuity (RD) provides valid causal inference at the cutoff score that determines treatment assignment. One purpose of this paper is to test RD's internal validity across 15 studies. Each of them assesses the correspondence between causal estimates from an RD study and a randomized control trial (RCT) when the estimates are made at the same cutoff point where they should not differ asymptotically. However, statistical error, imperfect design implementation, and a plethora of different possible analysis options, mean that they might nonetheless differ. We test whether they do, assuming that the bias potential is greater with RDs than RCTs. A second purpose of this paper is to investigate the external validity of RD by exploring how the size of the bias estimates varies across the 15 studies, for they differ in their settings, interventions, analyses, and implementation details. Both Bayesian and frequentist meta‐analysis methods show that the RD bias is below 0.01 standard deviations on average, indicating RD's high internal validity. When the study‐specific estimates are shrunken to capitalize on the information the other studies provide, all the RD causal estimates fall within 0.07 standard deviations of their RCT counterparts, now indicating high external validity. With unshrunken estimates, the mean RD bias is still essentially zero, but the distribution of RD bias estimates is less tight, especially with smaller samples and when parametric RD analyses are used.     

“An Inherited Money Dude from Queens County”: How Unseen Candidate Characteristics Affect Voter Perceptions

Political Behavior - We examine the effect of biographical knowledge on voters’ assessments of leaders. Prior research has shown that voters infer traits from candidate characteristics such...     

Disentangling the racial test score gap: Probing the evidence in a large urban school district

We examine the size and distribution of the gap in test scores across races within New York City public schools and the factors that explain these gaps. While gaps are partially explained by differences in student characteristics, such as poverty, differences in schools attended are also important. At the same time, substantial within‐school gaps remain and are only partly explained by differences in academic preparation across students from different race groups. Controlling for differences in classrooms attended explains little of the remaining gap, suggesting little role for within‐school inequities in resources. There is some evidence that school characteristics matter. Race gaps are negatively correlated with school size—implying small schools may be helpful. In addition, the trade‐off between the size and experience of the teaching staff in urban schools may carry unintended consequences for within‐school race gaps. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.