Computing Nash Equilibria in Probabilistic, Multiparty Spatial Models with Nonpolicy Components

Although there exist extensive results concerning equilibriain spatial models of two-party elections with probabilisticvoting, we know far less about equilibria in multiparty elections—i.e.,under what conditions will equilibria exist, and what are thecharacteristics of equilibrium configurations? We derive conditionsthat guarantee the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium anddevelop an algorithm to compute that equilibrium inmultipartyelections with probabilistic voting, in which voters chooseaccording to the behaviorists' fully specified multivariatevote model. Previously, such computations could only be approximatedby laborious search methods. The algorithm, which assumes aconditional logit choice function, can be applied to spatialcompetition for a variety of party objectives including vote-maximizationand margin-maximization, and can also encompass alternativevoter policy metrics such as quadratic and linear loss functions.We show that our conditions for an equilibrium are plausiblegiven the empirically-estimated parameters that behavioristsreport for voting behavior in historical elections. We alsoshow that parties' equilibrium positions depend not only onthe distribution of voters' policy preferences but also on theirnonpolicy-related attributes such as partisanship and sociodemographicvariables. Empirical applications to data from a recent Frenchelection illustrate the use of the algorithm and suggest thata unique Nash equilibrium existed in that election.     

Substance abuse minimization: Conceptualizing prevention in adolescent and youth programs

This article provides an overview of the historical and theoretical work on adolescent substance abuse with implications for preventive interventions. The focus is on an illustration of the use of four basic prevention tools: education, competency promotion, community mobilization, and natural care giving.Research interests include mental health, family relations, adolescence, and primary prevention.Research interests include family and social relations, adolescent personality social development.     

Self-image complexity and identity formation in adolescence: Longitudinal studies

Using a specially designed Q-sort technique, multiple self-images which were held by each of 60 adolescents were studied. Sixty normal and psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents were tested initially and then every 6 months for 12–18 months. Each subject's self-images were analyzed in terms of their complexity. Results showed that, as predicted, the patients and normals differed significantly. The patients had consistently lower complexity scores on each trial. The patients' and normals' patterns of complexity scores are discussed in terms of their reflecting the ego identity configurations described clinically by Erikson and operationally defined herein.This study was supported in part by a Research Scientist Development Award (Kl-70-178) from the National Institute of Mental Health.Received his medical training at Yale University School of Medicine and his psychiatric training at Massachusetts Mental Health Center. Currently continuing graduate training in personality and development in the Psychology and Social Relations Department at Harvard University. Present research interests are in the interplay between fantasy and nonverbal process in interracial adolescent dyads; and in the longitudinal study of adolescent identity development.     

Policy divergence in multicandidate probabilistic spatial voting

Existing models of multicandidate spatial competition with probabilistic voting typically predict a high degree of policy convergence, yet in actual elections candidates advocate quite divergent sets of policies. What accounts for this disparity between theory and empirical observation? I introduce two variations on the basic probabilistic vote model which may account for candidate policy divergence: 1) a model which incorporates candidate-specific variables, so that candidates may enjoy nonpolicy-related electoral advantages (or disadvantages); 2) a model which allows nonzero correlations between the random terms associated with voters' candidate utilities, thereby capturing situations where voters view two or more candidates as similar on nonpolicy grounds. I report candidate equilibrium analyses for each model, which show far greater policy divergence than exists under the standard probabilistic vote model. I then analyze the strategic logic which underlies these results.

     

How the East Was Won: Transnational Social Forces and the Neoliberalisation of Poland's Post-Communist Transition*

The article proposes a Gramscian account of Poland's transition to a market economy. It considers what has generated, sustained, and legitimated neoliberal hegemony and illustrates how neoliberal ideas attained a hegemonic position through the development of a particular class and national state project. It uncovers where the agents of this process are visible by contrasting two waves of post-communist reform that have contributed to the reconfiguration of the Polish political economy in the current conjuncture of global restructuring. Firstly, it focuses on the centrepiece of neoliberal efforts to constitute hegemony in the shape of the “shock therapy” reform programme and then on the later application of a highly selective form of Europeanisation. Finally the article considers which social forces have offered the most effective resistance to neoliberalism in an appraisal of the recent populist turn in Polish politics.