A multinominal logit analysis of the influence of policy variables and board experience on FOMC voting behavior

Previous studies have used probit or logit models to analyze two states of monetary policy (tighter or looser). In this paper we employ multinominal logit to permit Federal Reserve monetary policy to assume one of three alternative states (tighter, looser, or no change) as a function of three independent economic variables (unemployment, real growth, and inflation) and the amount of experience of the Board of Governors. The results indicate that the Federal Reserve reacted differently under Burns, Miller and Volcker and between Volcker's two operating procedures in the formulation of monetary policy.     

Social Support, Risk-Level and Safety Actions Following Acute Assessment of Suicidal Youth

The purpose of the pilot study was to examine the interrelationship between social support, risk-level, and safety actions for 2 groups of suicidal adolescents (50 attempters and 50 ideators), who had presented for an acute assessment at an outpatient mental health service. A social support model was proposed in which it was thought that information related to patients' social support would impact upon the types of risk-level and safety actions made by clinicians. Data was collected from a total of 100 patient files, utilizing the acute assessment reports (e.g., reports assessing risk of self-harm). Findings show that groups differed significantly on indices of negative support severity, positive support, and risk-level. Limited support was found for the proposed social support model. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.     

Black and white identity development: Aspects and perspectives

Empirical definitions of identity formation, and five variants, were constructed using a technique for studying multiple self-images. The method was then applied to a sample of black and white lower socioeconomic class boys. These boys were tested with this technique and given in-depth interviews twice a year, from the start to the finish of high school. The results of these longitudinal studies disclose that the black and white adolescents have emphatically differentpatterns of identity formation. The blacks are characterized by unchanging configurations of self-images. Both the content of their self-definitions and the interrelations for these self-definitions remain strikingly stable over the years. The whites, on the other hand, display a progressive integration of different self-images and stabilization of the content of these images. The more qualitative interview data corroborate these quantitative findings. The patterns displayed by the blacks are consistent with the definition of identity foreclosure, a disruption in ego identity development. The whites' patterns, however, are consistent with progressive identity formation. In addition to discussing these results, the paper goes on to consider ways to understand the findings. Sociocultural as well as cognitive aspects of the racial differences in identity development are explored.This is a revised version of a presentation to the Fall Meeting of the American Psychoanalytical Association, December 16, 1970. The earlier version was also the recipient of the Harry C. Solomon Essay Prize at the Massachusetts Mental Health Center, June 1970.Received M.A. (Social Anthropology) from Harvard University and M.D. from Yale University. Currently studying self-image and cognitive development in populations of normal and psychiatrically impaired adolescents.     

Optimally Allocating Federal Money to Cities

The purpose of this article is to discuss some basic methods for optimally allocating federal money to cities. Optimally allocating in this context means using the quantitative methods of operations research, management science, and related fields in order to allocate federal money to cities in such a way as to (1) maximize benefits subject to a given budget, (2) minimize costs subject to a minimum satisfaction level, or (3) maximize benefits minus costs. The basic methods include (1) allocating by marginal rates of return, which partly relies or statistical regression analysis; and (2) allocating by part/whole percentages, which partly relies on ideas associated with multiattribute utility theory. The basic methods will be illustrated with the example of allocating anticrime dollars to cities, although one could easily reason by analogy to allocation in any subject matter area.     

The effect of the method of burial on adipocere formation

A controlled laboratory experiment was conducted in order to investigate the effect of the method of burial (i.e. the presence of coffin and clothing) on the formation of adipocere. This study follows previous studies by the authors who have investigated the effect of physical conditions on the formation of adipocere present in a controlled burial environment. The study utilises infrared spectroscopy to provide a preliminary lipid profile of the remains following a 12 month decomposition period. Inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry was employed as a technique for determining the salts of fatty acids present in adipocere. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used as the confirmatory test for the identification and determination of the chemical composition of adipocere which formed in the controlled burial environments. The results suggest that coffins will retard the rate at which adipocere forms but that clothing enhances its formation. The results concur with previous observations on adipocere formation in burial environments.     

Sexual and nonsexual offenders with intellectual and learning disabilities: a comparison of characteristics, referral patterns, and outcome

This article reports an evaluation of a community intellectual disability offender service over the period from 1990 to 2001. Men who committed sex offenses or sexually abusive incidents (n = 106) and men who committed other types of offenses and serious incidents (n = 78) are compared on personal characteristics, referral sources, forensic details, and outcome up to 7 years after referral. The cohorts are older than one would expect from the criminology literature, and, at about 33%, the incidence of mental illness is consistent with some previous studies. A greater proportion of sex offenders had criminal justice involvement and a formal disposal from court. Fire raising was not overly represented as an offense. There was a higher rate of reoffending in the nonsexual cohort, which persisted up to 7 years. Investigating only reoffenders, there was a considerable amount of harm reduction recorded up to 7 years, statistically significant up to 5 years following initial referral.     

Lineup Identification by Children: Effects of Clothing Bias

This study examined effects of clothing cues on children's identification accuracy from lineups. Four- to 14-year-olds (n = 228) saw 12 video clips of individuals, each wearing a distinctly colored shirt. After watching each clip children were presented with a target-present or target-absent photo lineup. Three clothing conditions were included. In 2 conditions all lineup members wore the same colored shirt; in the third, biased condition, the shirt color of only one individual matched that seen in the preceding clip (the target in target-present trials and the replacement in target-absent trials). Correct identifications of the target in target-present trials were most frequent in the biased condition, whereas in target-absent trials the biased condition led to more false identifications of the target replacement. Older children were more accurate than younger children, both in choosing the target from target-present lineups and rejecting target-absent lineups. These findings suggest that a simple clothing cue such as shirt color can have a significant impact on children's lineup identification accuracy.