Assumptions,behavioral findings,and policy analysis

Recent empirical studies indicate that many standard economic assumptions used in policy analyses do not reflect people's preferences and choices as well as modifications based on behavioral findings. Differences in the areas of time preferences and the large disparity between valuations of gains and losses illustrate the issues and the distortions that present analyses likely impose.     

How do municipal mayors and councillors communicate with other levels of government? Evidence from a multi-level survey of Canadian elected officials

While past research suggests that informal processes of dialogue play an important role in municipal intergovernmental relations in Canada, we currently know very little about their character and frequency. Who do local elected officials communicate with, and through which channels? And which municipal voices carry the most weight in these conversations? This article answers these questions from the perspective of elected politicians themselves, using a pan-Canadian survey of municipal, provincial, and federal elected representatives. Our findings confirm that municipal intergovernmental relations depend heavily on informal institutions and personal relationships and highlight the key role of municipal mayors as spokespersons and advocates for municipalities in Canadian federalism.     

Pubertal Timing and Adolescent Adjustment and Behavior: Conclusions Vary by Rater

The effects of pubertal timing on adolescent development have been studied since the late 1930s, yet the research has yielded inconsistent findings. One reason for such inconsistency may be the source of the rating. The purpose of this report was to examine whether pubertal timing by self-report (SR), parent report (PR), or physical exam (PE) predicted the same aspects of adjustment and behavior problems. Fifty-two girls, age 9–14 years (M = 12.0 ± 1.6) and 56 boys, age 10–15 years (M = 12.7 ± 1.3) and their parents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. Parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist and adolescents completed the Offer Self-Image Questionnaire. Using regression, later maturing boys and girls had more adjustment and behavior problems than on-time or earlier maturers in cross-sectional analyses. Longitudinally, there were few significant relationships between pubertal timing at the first occasion of measurement and adjustment and behavior problems 1 year later. Overlap in correlates of adjustment and behavior problems across raters was not always found. More significant findings were evident between pubertal timing and adjustment and behavior problems for boys than for girls and more for ratings by PE than by SR or PR. Caution appears in order when drawing conclusions about pubertal timing and adolescent behavior when rater of pubertal development or timing of rating varies across studies. The selection of who rates pubertal development and the timing of the ratings should be based on the underlying theoretical framework guiding the hypotheses.     

Hospital selective contracting without consumer choice: What can we learn from Medi‐Cal?

In the selective contracting era, consumer choice has generally been absent in most state Medicaid programs, including California's (called Medi-Cal). In a setting where beneficiary exit is not a threat, a large payer may have both the incentives and the ability to exercise undue market power, potentially exposing an already vulnerable population to further harm. The analyses presented here of Medi-Cal contracting data, however, do not yield compelling evidence in favor of the undue market power hypothesis. Instead, hospital competition appears to explain with greater consistency why certain hospitals choose to contract with Medi-Cal while others do not, the trends in inpatient prices paid by Medi-Cal over time, and the effect of price competition on service cutbacks, such as emergency room closures. Copyright 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability

Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.     

Small states and the ‘throughput’ legitimacy of international organizations

Abstract

The unequal participation of member states in international organizations (IOs) undermines IOs’ legitimacy as global actors. Existing scholarship typically makes this assessment by referencing a combination of input—the interests IOs serve—and output—the decisions they take. This scholarship does not, however, pay enough attention to how IOs have responded to these concerns. We argue that IOs have used the participation of small states—whose membership most studies typically ignore—as an important means of generating what Vivian Schmidt calls ‘throughput’ legitimacy for their operations. We organize our analysis of ‘throughput’ legitimacy in IOs around four institutional mechanisms—(1) agenda setting; (2) leadership (s)election; (3) management and operation; and (4) service delivery—in which all states seek to exert influence. What emerges is an account of IOs seeking to balance ‘inputs’ and ‘outputs’ by way of ‘throughputs’. We conclude by arguing for an expanded focus on the means by which IOs generate ‘throughput’ legitimacy in future research.     

Identifying Fatal Head Injuries on Postmortem Computed Tomography Using Convolutional Neural Network/Deep Learning: A Feasibility Study

Postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) is a relatively recent advancement in forensic pathology practice that has been increasingly used as an ancillary investigation and screening tool. One area of clinical CT imaging that has garnered a lot of research interest recently is the area of “artificial intelligence” (AI), such as in screening and computer-assisted diagnostics. This feasibility study investigated the application of convolutional neural network, a form of deep learning AI, to PMCT head imaging in differentiating fatal head injury from controls. PMCT images of a transverse section of the head at the level of the frontal sinus from 25 cases of fatal head injury were combined with 25 nonhead-injury controls and divided into training and testing datasets. A convolutional neural network was constructed using Keras and was trained against the training data before being assessed against the testing dataset. The results of this study demonstrated an accuracy of between 70% and 92.5%, with difficulties in recognizing subarachnoid hemorrhage and in distinguishing congested vessels and prominent falx from head injury. These results are promising for potential applications as a screening tool or in computer-assisted diagnostics in the future.     

Immigration and the Imagined Community in Europe and the United States

Both Europe and the United States are confronting the challenges of economic and cultural integration posed by immigration. This article uses the ESS and CID surveys to compare transatlantic public opinion about immigrants and immigration. We find more tolerance for cultural diversity in the United States, but we also find that Americans, like Europeans, tend to overestimate the number of immigrants in their countries and tend to favor lower levels of immigration. The underpinnings of individual attitudes are similar in all countries and immigration attitudes are surprisingly unrelated to country-level differences in GDP, unemployment and the number and composition of the foreign born. An implication of these findings is that acceptance of higher levels of immigration, deemed by many to be an economic need, will require both more selective immigration policies and an emphasis on the cultural assimilation of newcomers.