Determination of vehicle speed from recorded video using the open-source software Kinovea

Video devices of different kind often record traffic accidents, including vehicle-pedestrian collisions and hit-and-run accidents. In these cases, the vehicle speed is valuable information because it can assist the investigators in an accident reconstruction. This paper examines the use of Kinovea, an open-source video annotation tool designed for sport analysis, to estimate vehicle speed in forensic videos. Kinovea does not require a complex methodology, and it can be used to make the calculation easily. A series of vehicle driving experiments using an appropriately calibrated speed radar system (so called Scout Speed) were carried out, and measurements were compared with the estimated speed. In controlled conditions, the comparison of Scout reference speed and calculated average vehicle speed by means of Kinovea found an average difference of 0.43 km/h, with a margin of error of ±0.64 km/h. In addition, further preliminary tests were carried out to check the reliability of the measurements under lower resolution conditions. Also, in these cases the calculations were in line with the ground truth. Therefore, in the tested conditions, Kinovea demonstrated to be an easy and reliable tool available for forensic video examiners. Further tests need to be conducted in order to address the applicability of the measurement technique with true CCTV/surveillance video recordings.     

A general approach to Bayesian networks for the interpretation of evidence

Bayesian networks (BNs) are mathematically and statistically rigorous techniques for handling uncertainty. The field of forensic science has recently attributed increased attention to the many advantages of this graphical method for assisting the evaluation of scientific evidence. However, the majority of contributions that relate to this topic restrict themselves to the presentation of already "constructed" BNs, and often, only a few explanations are given as to how one obtains a specific BN structure for a given problem. Based on several examples, the present paper will therefore attempt to explain in more detail some guiding considerations that might be helpful for the elicitation of appropriate structures for BNs.     

The effects of biased technological changes on total factor productivity: a rejoinder and new empirical evidence

The paper by Ji and Wang (J Technol Transf, 2013) calls new attention on the analysis of the effects of the direction of technological change. The aim of this paper is to better articulate and test the theoretical arguments that the direction of technological changes has specific effects on the efficiency of the production process and to study the incentives and the processes that lead to its introduction. The decomposition of total factor productivity growth into the bias and the shift effects enables to articulate the hypothesis that the types of technological change whether more neutral or more biased reflect the variety of the innovation processes at work. The evidence of a large sample of European regions tests the hypothesis that regional innovations systems with a strong science base are better able to introduce neutral technological changes while regional innovation systems that rely more upon learning processes and tacit knowledge favor the introduction of directed technologies a form of meta-substitution that aims at exploiting the opportunities provided by the most intensive use of locally abundant factors.     

‘Tesco for Terrorists’ Reconsidered: Arms and Conflict Dynamics in Libya and in the Sahara-Sahel Region

How does arms availability affect armed conflict? What implications does increased arms availability have for the organisation of armed groups involved in war against the state? This article explores these questions by looking into the civil war in Libya and the subsequent proliferation of weapons in the broader Sahel/North Africa region. Its argument is based on secondary sources: online databases, international organisations reports and news media. First, we examine the question of firearms in Libya in order to understand how changing conditions of weapons availability affected the formation of armed groups during different phases of war hostilities (February–October 2011). We highlight that, as weapons became more readily available to fighters in the field during this period, a process of fragmentation occurred, hindering efforts to build mechanisms that would allow control of the direction of the revolutionary armed movement. Next, as security continued to be a primary challenge in the new Libya, we consider the way in which unaccountable firearms and light weapons have affected the post-war landscape in the period from October 2011 to the end of 2013. Finally, we put the regional and international dimensions under scrutiny, and consider how the proliferation of weapons to nearby insurgencies and armed groups has raised major concern among Libya’s neighbours. Short of establishing any causal relationship stricto sensu, we underscore the ways in which weapons from Libya have rekindled or altered local conflicts, creating permissive conditions for new tactical options, and accelerating splintering processes within armed movements in the Sahara-Sahel region.     

Opportunism and MPs’ chances of re-election: an analysis of political transformism in the Italian parliament

Public Choice - We identify as political transformists the Italian members of parliament (MPs) who cross the aisle and vote for legislation opposed by their own political group—i.e., MPs who...     

Returns to effort in rent-seeking games

In the traditional formulation of rent-seeking games, increasing returns to effort are characterized by an exponent r>1. However, when the value of the rent is normalized to 1, the players’ effort levels A and B will typically be less than 1. Thus, when A<1 and r>1, the value of A ^r decreases as r increases, contradicting the interpretation of r>1 as representing increasing returns to effort. This apparent defect in the mathematization of the problem seems to suggest that a different interpretation of r is required whenever A<1, upsetting the uniformity and elegance of the model. In this short note, we demonstrate that the perceived problem is illusory, and that the usual interpretation of r is satisfactory for all values of A.     

The Evolutionary Path of Hamas: Examining the Role of Political Pragmatism in State Building and Activism

Of the two major Palestinian factions, Hamas has demonstrated that it is more radical and willing to use acts of terrorism than Fatah. While some arguments have made the case that Hamas has become more moderate in light of efforts to develop stable institutions of government and societal organizations, there has not been conclusive evidence of this ideological shift. In fact, the continued adherence to the Muqawama (resistance) Doctrine represents a decisive facet of the movement's enduring pledge to nullify the state of Israel through a prolonged war of attrition. This article examines the role of political pragmatism in the evolution of Hamas. First, it discusses why the moderation argument alone does not provide an adequate understanding of the movement's evolution, especially since it continues to embrace the use of terrorism and violence as facets of Islamism and as an extension of the Muqawama Doctrine. Second, rather than solely using the moderation argument, this article offers an alternative approach which considers how the combination of strategic policy approaches implemented by Hamas has reflected the role of pragmatism in pursuing its domestic and foreign policy agendas, which are intertwined with the values of the Muqawama Doctrine.